Which NCAA football squads offer betting value by Ted Sevransky

Last week, I shined the spotlight on the Legends’ Division of the Big 10 conference. This week, I’ll shift my focus over to the “Leaders” side of the Big 10 omitting Wisconsin, covered indepth two weeks ago.

Which squads offer value and which look like solid “bet against” squads? Read on to find out. Teams are listed in alphabetical order, not predicted order of finish.

ILLINOIS

Ron Zook is showing signs of being the modern day Wayne Fontes, somehow managing to save his job time and time again. Zook’s tenure at Illinois has produced wild swings: a 2-10 campaign, followed by a Rose Bowl season; three years of three wins or less, but a job saving 7-5 campaign last year culminating in a blowout win over Baylor in the Texas Bowl; their first bowl victory in 11 years. Instead of sending out resumes, Zook got rewarded with a raise and is reportedly negotiating a contract extension.

Offensive coordinator Paul Petrino helped the team improve by more than eight points per game last year. Sophomore QB Nathan Scheelhaase rushed for more than 850 yards last season and came on strong down the stretch with a 13-1 TD-INT ratio in the last seven games. With 69 career starts returning on the offensive line and a bevy of skill position talent, the Illini are poised to score points in bunches again in 2011.

Vic Koenning shaved 52 yards and seven points off the Illini’s defensive allowance last year. But Illinois suffered significant graduation losses from their front seven, leaving concerns on a unit that allowed a whopping 157 points in the final four regular season games. Illinois opens the season with five straight home games and get Ohio State and Wisconsin at home. With an upset or two, this team could post their first back-to-back winning ATS seasons since the Ron Turner/Kurt Kittner era of 2001 and 2002.

INDIANA

The Hoosiers have been a bad team for decades, and their point spread results clearly show those talent deficiencies. Over the past decade the Hoosiers are 18 games under .500 ATS, with only two winning point spread seasons during that span. They’ve been at their worst trying to step up in class; 32-51 ATS as underdogs during that span, including a 17-30 ATS mark as road dogs.

If you’ve been trying to find “value” with Indiana, you probably haven’t fared particularly well supporting this sorry program. 2011 doesn’t look much different for the Hoosiers.

Five head coaches since 2001 and this season a pair of new coordinators. To a man, the players are saying all the right things. But Indiana must replace the Big 10 passing leader from last year, Ben Chappell. They have a pair of freshman penciled in as starters on the offensive line.

The IU defense has allowed 400-plus yards and at least four touchdowns per game in each of the last nine seasons and looks to be among the weakest units in the conference again this year. Indiana is not a team I’m expecting to make money.

OHIO STATE

In the last nine years under Jim Tressel, Ohio State notched eight Top 10 finishes and played for the national title three times, winning once. They enter the season having captured all or part of six consecutive Big 10 crowns.

Yet even with that type of a profile, the Buckeyes have been routinely undervalued; going 9-4 ATS or better four times in the last six years. They’ve been particularly strong in the “home favorite” role at the Horseshoe, including a perfect 8-0 ATS mark as home chalk last year.

Ohio State has suffered through an enormous amount of offseason turmoil. Tressel was forced to resign; Heisman contending senior QB Terrelle Pryor quit the team to move on to the NFL; and three other key seniors – left tackle Mike Adams, wide receiver DeVier Posey and running back Dan Herron – have all been suspended for the first five games of the season.

Five NFL draft choices on defense have graduated, leaving more holes to fill than we’re used to seeing with the Buckeyes. Clearly, interim head coach Luke Fickell will have his hands full getting the team to live up to the high standards set in Columbus.

The Buckeyes are still absolutely loaded with talent, size and speed on both sides of the ball. They get four of their first five games at home, but face stiff road tests at Miami-FL, Nebraska and Illinois by mid-October.

With decent QB play from either of the two primary contenders for the starting job – senior Joe Bauserman or true frosh Braxton Miller – the Buckeyes can win games, cover point spreads and contend for Big 10 titles, despite their troublesome offseason.

PENN STATE

After five consecutive seasons of nine wins or better, Penn State regressed due to poor QB play and a defense that was banged up. JoePa’s squad kept their bowl streak alive, in large part due to a friendly schedule. Penn State lost all five games against ranked foes in 2010, covering only one point spread in defeat.

The QB play should be better this year, whether sophomore Rob Bolden or junior Matt McGloin wins the job. The strong offensive line features three returning senior starters. The defense is extremely talented, featuring multiple NFL prospects poised for improvement after their rush defense and their pass rush disappeared for extended stretches in 2010.

Penn State does not have a user-friendly schedule, even with early home games against the likes of Indiana State and Eastern Michigan. An early visit from Alabama is certainly no cakewalk, and their November trio of games – Nebraska, at Ohio State and at Wisconsin – is as tough as any in the nation.

PURDUE

If Penn State was banged up last year, Purdue was positively decimated with injuries on the offensive side of the football. The Boilermakers suffered a slew of critical injuries to their skill position players, derailing their 4-2 start.

Purdue closed out the campaign on a 0-6 SU, 2-4 ATS slide; the seventh consecutive season that the Boilermakers have covered six point spreads or less for the entirety of the campaign. Sophomore QB Rob Bolden showed flashes of promise last year after Miami-FL transfer Robert Marve got hurt.

Bolden enters the fall with a firm grasp on the starting job, yet another dual threat QB in a Big 10 conference that is positively loaded with run/pass threats at the QB position. The veteran offensive line has four starters back, and skill position talents like RB Ralph Bolden and WR Justin Siller have legitimate big play ability. An offense that declined by more than eight points and nearly 80 yards per game last year is poised for a significant improvement.

Defensively, the Boilermakers return nine starters, with a decent amount of talent even after the loss of DE Ryan Kerrigan, a first round NFL draft choice. And, after 17 freshmen saw playing time for Purdue last year, there’s a plethora of experience returning to this roster.

Purdue will be favored in four of their first five games, enjoying the benefits of a very friendly early schedule. Despite their 2-7 ATS track record as home chalk under third year head coach Danny Hope, Purdue has a reasonable chance to be a money earner, not a money burner in the upcoming campaign.

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