Joseph D'Amico
Kyle Hunter
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Trev Rogers
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Rocky Atkinson
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Bryan Leonard
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‘Under’-estimating Steelers, Packers by The Gaming Today Ted Sevransky
Truth be told, I bet both Green Bay and Pittsburgh under their respective season win totals this year, and advised my clients to do the same.
Clearly, not one of my better recommendations.
We settled for a push with our Packers Under 10 wins bet, but Steelers Under was pretty much dead from about mid-October.
Now these two storied franchises are set to battle in one of the more highly anticipated Super Bowl matchups in recent memory. Next week, I’ll deliver a report on some of the prop bets I’ve made.
Today, a look back at some of the things I’ve written about these two teams, dating back to preseason.
PACKERS PRESEASON:
Green Bay had the No. 2 ranked defense in the NFL last year. This sure doesn’t look like a No. 2 defense to me. This secondary got picked apart repeatedly, with open receivers running downfield all evening.
Aaron Rodgers has a great touch on his deep ball; his first pass was a beautiful 56-yard bomb to Greg Jennings. But can they run?
The Packers are an ‘Over’ squad – the defense is very, very questionable, but remain an elite level passing team, capable of competing in shootouts.
WEEK 5:
The injuries are really starting to pile up on both sides of the football. They’ve got cluster injuries at tight end, on the defensive line and in the secondary, with two defensive starters and their top two tight ends hurt.
Once Ryan Pickett and Clay Matthews went down, their pass rush took a big hit. And Mason Crosby showed again why he is one of the worst clutch kickers in the league, missing a pair of second half field goals including the potential game winner.
Green Bay came out as flat as a pancake this week, instead of playing like its hair was on fire following last week’s disappointing loss at Atlanta. It took them about a quarter to wake up, but once they woke up – bam – the offense put up back-to-back touchdowns sandwiched by a defensive three and out.
That effort carried over after halftime, with a huge ‘refuse to go down’ touchdown connection from Rodgers to Donald Driver as part of four consecutive scoring drives to open the half. I respect a team that comes out flat but finds a way to get into rhythm as the game progresses.
I’m so impressed with CB Tramon Williams, the latest cornerback playing at a Pro Bowl level in Dom Capers’ defense. The former undrafted, undersized Louisiana Tech product is absolutely worth the fat contract he signed earlier in the week.
Entering the playoffs
There are some very positive indicators for the Packers; an 11-5 team that didn’t lose a single game by more than four points. This is a mature, veteran team that played extremely well in hostile environments, including solid road wins at Philly and the Jets, along with a near upset with their backup QB behind center in Foxboro against the Patriots.
Rodgers was nothing short of “special” with a 28-11 TD-INT ratio and a whopping 8.3 yards per pass attempt (second best in the league). And we certainly can’t forget Rodgers’ postseason performance last year, when he rallied the Packers from a three touchdown deficit in the second half at Arizona to send the game into overtime.
Meanwhile, Dom Capers’ defense has been exceptional for extended stretches, loaded with playmakers: Matthews and his 14 sacks, AJ Hawk and his 111 tackles, Woodson, Williams and Nick Collins with a dozen interceptions between them, Pickett and BJ Raji stuffing the run.
Steelers preseason
I was not impressed with this defense; fifth in the NFL last year. They weren’t stout against the run and looked vulnerable against the pass; albeit with ‘vanilla’ game plans. This offensive line got abused, breaking in two new starters on the right side.
Flozell Adams is clearly not a capable NFL tackle anymore – the Cowboys cut him for a reason. Big Ben Roethlisberger’s INT was just a ‘chuck it up for grabs’ throw, one of several. Running back Rashard Mendenhall looks good as long as he can hang onto the football.
Troy Polamalu had another brilliant interception in the end zone here, saving a touchdown. Polamalu remains an absolute game changer. Any questions about this defense have surely been answered – this is a prototypical Steelers ‘D.’ I’m very impressed with this secondary; not a unit of strength last year.
Mendenhall is an absolute beast, another guy who has returned from a serious injury without any apparent long term effects. His size/speed combo is as good as any back in the league.
Multiple offensive line injuries continue to be a significant concern. Even with a +6 turnover edge, the Steelers managed only seven first downs for the game, and had to hang on in the closing seconds to secure the victory.
We don’t talk about the Steelers’ receiving corps much, but we should. Savvy vets Hines Ward and Antwaan Randle El have three things in common – great hands, excellent discipline on their route running and the ability to block downfield.
That’s all you can ask for with any receiver that doesn’t have blinding speed. And Mike Wallace has that level of speed; the next Santonio Holmes in this offense – watch for big production when Big Ben returns to the lineup following the bye.
Big Ben is an excellent bad weather quarterback. He’s a huge guy with a massive arm, and his receivers are used to playing in cold, windy conditions. There isn’t another QB in the league who I’d trust more in these types of late season conditions, apologies to Tom Brady. Ben can throw through the wind, and with Mendenhall acting like a workhorse back – 18 carries by the middle of the second quarter; 36 for the game – Big Ben’s arm is that much more effective.
This team is really underachieving on offense. Over the last three weeks, 16 points against Buffalo, 13 against Baltimore and just three field goals without a TD against the Bengals. We’re talking about 30 offensive possessions with only two TD’s during that span. And one of those two touchdowns came on a three play nine yard drive set up by a Polamalu forced fumble.
Entering playoffs
The Steelers’ offense has been broken for weeks. Pittsburgh is loaded with skill position talent. Head coach Mike Tomlin has two time Super Bowl winner Roethlisberger at quarterback, yard rusher with breakaway speed (Rashard Mendenhall) at running back and the most explosive pass catcher in the AFC – Wallace and his AFC best 20.2 yards per catch average.
But despite all of that skill position talent, the Steelers have scored a grand total of seven offensive touchdowns in their last five ballgames.
