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Turkeys, Turnovers and Rivalry Tilts! by Jim Feist
It’s Thanksgiving week, which means the
middle of the NFL campaign while winding down the college football regular
season. Late season college football means heated races for conference titles
and bowl berths, plus rivalries that span decades. These games can have far more
importance for players than September/October clashes. Oklahoma/Ok-State,
USC/UCLA, Florida/Florida State, Georgia/Georgia Tech and Auburn/Alabama bring
out extra intensity and emotion.
We recall Alabama celebrating a
championship two years ago, but you might not remember that they had to battle
rival Auburn to stay unbeaten and barely won, 26-21, as 10-point chalk. Then
they upset rival Florida for a chance to advance to the national title game.
Last season it was Auburn turning the tables on Alabama with a sensational
comeback on the way to the national title.
We’ve already witnesses a
historical upset this season last month when Texas Tech, as a 29-point dog, won
at Oklahoma, 41-38. Last season football and rivalry games can mean intensity
that can transcend some betting numbers, especially large ones. Remember all the
upsets late in 2007? Pitt got fired up to play West Virginia in the Backyard
Brawl and won as a +28 dog, while Missouri knocked off unbeaten Kansas. Six
years ago unbeaten Texas was a 27-point favorite at rival Texas A&M. The
Aggies had one of the worst defenses in the nation, but A&M played an
inspired game, leading in the third quarter and down just 34-29 going into the
fourth. The maligned Aggie defense played well and A&M finished with an edge
in yards over No. 2 Texas, 398-336.
Athletes might not always admit it,
but playing on national television can help raise their games a notch, such as
Thanksgiving week and conference title tilts in December. There have been many
memorable upsets, too. One holiday season there were 12 college and pro football
games played Thursday and Friday of Thanksgiving weekend, and the underdog was
11-1 against the spread. Five dogs won straight up, including Colorado as a
10-point dog smashing Nebraska 62-36, the No. 2 ranked team in the nation.
2007 was the Year of Upsets in college football: Michigan losing to
Appalachian State, Louisville losing to Syracuse, No. 1 LSU losing in three
overtimes to Kentucky, USC losing to Stanford as 42-point chalk and No. 1 Ohio
State losing at home as a 15-point favorite to Illinois all shocked and muddled
the BCS picture. Here is a list of the biggest college football upsets of all
time:
2007 Stanford (+42) tops USC, 24-23
2007 Syracuse (+39) at Louisville, 38-35
1985
Oregon State (+36) tops Washington, 21-20
1985 UTEP (+36)
over BYU, 23-16
1998 Temple (+35½) beats Virginia Tech,
28-24
2007 Appalachian St (+35) at Michigan, 34-32
1972 Missouri (+35) beat Notre Dame, 30-26
1974
Purdue (+34) at Notre Dame, 31-20
2011 Texas Tech (+29) at
Oklahoma, 41-38
1992 Iowa State (+29) over Nebraska,
19-10
1969 San Jose State (+29) at Oregon, 36-34
1995 Northwestern (+28) over Notre Dame, 17-15
2007 Pitt (+28) tops West Virginia, 13-9
1942
Holy Cross (+28) beats Boston College, 55-12
2011 Iowa State (+28) beat
Oklahoma State, 37-31
2007 was a historic year, nearly
monopolizing the list, with four of the biggest upsets ever, including the top
two. One thing that stands out is the number of “public teams” like Notre Dame,
Nebraska and Michigan that got upset. This is an example of how oddsmakers have
to add points to public teams, as well as how smaller schools can get fired up
to face big-name schools, such as Toledo winning at Michigan this season.
It doesn’t always help to be one of the top teams in the polls as
opponents can be gunning for you. Many will recall No. 1 Ohio State going down
in 2007 as Illinois surprised them, 28-21. Few recall that a year earlier Ohio
State was also No. 1 in the nation and as a 25-point favorite at Illinois, the
Buckeyes had to hang on for dear life in a 17-10 win. The Illini was gunning for
No. 1 for a signature win.
In a sense, it was Illinois’ bowl game in
2006 with their season winding down, so they played all out. That same day, No.
2 Michigan had to hold on as a 32-point favorite against Ball State, a 34-26
win, two games that nearly disrupted their No. 1 vs. No. 2 showdown. Not only
can the opponent be fired up, but the big favorite might not be taking the game
seriously. After the Ball State game, Michigan quarterback Chad Henne said, “I
think that is a lot of the reason why we weren’t focused. Coming into the game,
people were reading too many press clippings.”
Pitt did something
similar four years ago when they stunned rival West Virginia, 13-9, late in the
season as a 28-point dog. Those are good example of how rivalries can force
bettors to discount point spreads, or take a closer look at the dog, not to
mention high-profile games this time of the year.
You can get all of Jim Feist’s FREE football articles and winners right here at www.aasiwins.com
