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There’s a different twist to the college football hot seat these days. Whereas schools used to be far less likely than the pros to force their coaches to walk the plank before the season is complete, that dynamic has changed significantly in recent years. Nowadays, the colleges have been even more apt than their NFL counterparts to pull the plug on their coaches before the season is finished.

We always think it is worthwhile to track such developments because pointspread regression so often precedes the pushing of the eject button. And for handicappers, that can be valuable information as several “go-against” wagering propositions emerge during the first half of the campaign.

With that in mind, here is an updated look at how the college coaching hot seat is warming up as the season moves into late September, with special attention paid to those mentors we believe might be forced to step aside even before the 2011 season is complete.

Mike Locksley, New Mexico…Locksley’s plight has been documented on these pages for the past two years. But another woeful start to the new Lobo campaign, including losses by 52-3 and 59-13 counts the past two weeks vs. Arkansas and Texas Tech, respectively, has continued the embarrassment for the New Mexico program, which would be in danger of demotion to the Big Sky Conference if European-style soccer relegation were used here in the states.

Remember, under most circumstances, Locksley would have been dismissed halfway through his first season of 2009, having already been charged in a sex discrimination suit against Lobo staffer Sylvia Lopez and suspended for the 2009 UNLV game after punching assistant coach J.B. Gerald. Not to mention the fact his first two Lobo teams have been unspeakably bad, with a 1-11 mark each season, making predecessor Rocky Long’s teams almost look Boise State-like in comparison. Mountain West sources say that Locksley could probably have been dismissed in ’09 for cause and spared UNM from a buyout, but the man who hired him, AD Paul Krebs, decided to stick with Locksley, only to be rewarded by another 1-11 in 2010.

Buyout issues are all that saved Locksley a year ago, but a restructured deal after 2010 with a reportedly lesser (much lesser) buyout was agreed to by Locksley after last season; some Mountain West sources suggest Krebs might still have had cause to dismiss Locksley and void the rest of his contract, and Locksley agreed to the new terms to prevent further embarrassment.

What puzzles most about Locksley’s tenure in Albuquerque is how horrible his offenses have been; the new 2011 version is following suit, already ranking 116th in scoring at 8.67 ppg. Keep in mind that the attack end was supposed to be his speciality when arriving from a stint as Ron Zook’s offensive coordinator at Illinois, but his offenses have consistently ranked among the nation’s worst since his arrival. What happened, and is this perhaps the worst coaching hire made in the past decade, if not longer? Most regional sources would not be surprised for his regime to be humanely terminated sometime in October, and are unsure the administration would even want Locksley to finish the campaign. Keep an eye on this unraveling situation.

Rick Neuheisel, UCLA…Two weeks ago, we wrote a detailed piece on our TGS website outlining the decline of a once proud UCLA football program, which made for an extended read. A combination of factors has contributed to the Bruins’ gridiron demise, although we’re not sure any one development has had as much impact as what so far has been the terribly disappointing regime of Neuheisel, which gives no hints of a breakthrough this season after a 1-2 start, lowering Slick Rick’s Westwood straight-up mark to 16-24 since his hiring in 2008.

We give Neuheisel some credit, however, as any coach who can collectively lower expectations for his program should be granted near-genius status. It’s not every mentor who can convince followers that progress is being made even though it isn’t (that’s usually a trick reserved for the most skillful of politicians), and get them to accept a reduced set of expectations. Yet Neuheisel seems to have convinced a wide swath of Bruin backers that progress will be achieved this season by simply qualifying for the postseason, even if it requires only a 6-6 mark and results in a date vs. Wyoming in the Las Vegas Bowl. There was a time when UCLA football would get rid of coaches who couldn’t do any better; come to think of it, the last two Bruin coaches (Bob Toledo and Karl Dorrell) were both axed in seasons in which UCLA did qualify for the Las Vegas Bowl. Yet Slick Rick and his backers seem to believe a similar achievement would warrant an extension of his underachieving regime.

As Vince Lombardi might have once asked, “What the hell is going on out here?!?!”

By comparison, consider how quickly crosstown Southern Cal ran Paul Hackett out of town a decade ago after three lackluster seasons and a 5-7 mark in 2000, which was better than Neuheisel’s 4-8 marks in both 2008 and 2010. Granted, Neuheisel has coached in some admittedly bad luck with injuries, but too often his teams appear ill-prepared, such as the last two weeks at home vs. San Jose State and Texas. Strangely, the Bruins displayed precious little emotion vs. either, rather inexcusable for so early in the season. If the Bruins can’t get fired up for a national TV date at home vs. Texas, what are they waiting for, anyway? A date vs. the Green Bay Packers?

Sorry, but Neuheisel has no more excuses for the continued football mediocrity in Westwood. Confirmation could come in the upcoming Pac-10 slate where the Bruins might be hard-pressed to find a win if they can’t beat struggling Oregon State this week.

Due to incompetence in its administration and its coaching staff, UCLA has also willingly ceded control of the L.A. area gridiron landscape to the crosstown Trojans, although it was within recent memory (1991-98) that UCLA owned an 8-game win streak over SC. With an administration more concerned with politically correct gestures and hollow nods to a few influential alums who recall more gloried days, the Bruins continue to misfire. Neuheisel’s regime has been nothing short of a fiasco and should have been terminated after last season.

The future of the man who hired Slick Rick, AD Dan Guerrero, would also be under serious review at most major schools for back-to-back blown football hires (Dorrell and Neuheisel), but, being UCLA, we wonder if whatever powers that be would have the nerve to move out Guerrero. Who, if reports are true, was also considering one of the real up-and-comers in the profession, then-Temple HC AL Golden, for the Bruin job after 2007, but quickly eliminated Golden from the discussion to concentrate instead upon Neuheisel and defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker as the two finalists instead.

Nice move there, Dan.

We would suspect that Neuheisel’s fate would almost be sealed if the Bruins lose again this week at Oregon State, but, being UCLA, we’re not sure what direction things will move. We can rest assured that long-ago AD J.D. Morgan would never have let the rot set in as it has over the last decade of Bruin football. A loss at Oregon State followed by an expected clocking by Stanford, then perhaps another loss to Washington State, should make Neuheisel a candidate to be terminated before Halloween, but we wouldn’t hold our breath.

Too soon to talk about successors in Westwood? Not necessarily, although we have no confidence in Guerrero making the right choice. If a change is forthcoming, however, the Bruins had better make a splash with the next hire, not some unknown assistant making his UCLA his first college head coaching job. The Bruins need to make a splash, much like J.D. Morgan once did when hiring Tommy Prothro form Oregon State, fresh off a Rose Bowl with his Beavers, in 1965.

Our suggestion? Mike Leach. Though a bit radiocative, Leach had apparently not run seriously afoul of the NCAA at any point in the past at Texas Tech, and brings with him the sort of national buzz that the Bruins could use. Not to mention a radical and progressive offensive system that would catch the fancy of fans and recruits alike. It would be a gamble, but the Bruins don’t have much choice these days. Unless they want to hire another Karl Dorrell or Rick Neuheisel.

Houston Nutt, Ole Miss…The handwriting has been on the wall, say some Rebel backers, since the 2009 season, when Nutt’s Ole Miss reached the Cotton Bowl for the second straight year but underachieved along the way. Moreover, many Ole Miss backers suspected all along that Nutt was merely winning in 2008 & ’09 with talent brought to Oxford by predecessor Ed “Foghorn” Orgeron, a noted recruiting whiz but ill-suited for the duties of a head coach.

The Nutt naysayers are being proven right, because as the Orgeron recruits have begun to disappear, the Rebel won-loss record continues to slide as well. Last year’s 4-8 mark signaled the red flags in Oxford, and now things look even worse in 2011, with Ole Miss sitting at 1-2 (with the only win over FCS Southern Illinois) and the meat of the SEC schedule still to some. Moreover, last week marked Nutt’s third loss in four tries vs. lowly Vanderbilt, which not only whipped the Rebs 30-7, but scored the Dores’ biggest SEC margin of victory since a 1971 blowout over Mississippi State by a 49-19 count.

Moreover, the Rebels look bad, especially unconvincing work being turned in by their QBs. Nutt has already benched Game One starter Barry Brunetti, a West Virginia transfer, opting thereafter for strong-armed juco Zack Stoudt, whose own performances have started to wane (and then some). Stoudt’s second start was a lot worse than his first, as he tossed five interceptions in the ugly effort last Saturday at Nashville vs. Vandy. Brunetti has already sunk to third string and hasn’t seen the field since the BYU opener. Some believe Nutt has little option but to turn to redshirt juco Randall Mackey, who has seen token work in the past two games after being suspended for the opener. And Nutt might have to act fast with a hungry Georgia on deck at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium this week.

Could Nutt get the boot in Oxford before the end of the season? Regional sources suggest it is a distinct possibility, especially once it becomes obvious that AD Pete Boone will be making a change.

Thoughts on successors at Ole Miss? Immediately coming to mind is Auburn o.c. Gus Malzahn, who figures to be on a short list for many jobs, although Gus (represented by regional super agent Jimmy Sexton) might want to hold out for a supposed “better” job, perhaps at Georgia if Mark Richt can’t make the grade, or, perhaps South Carolina if Steve Spurrier hangs ’em up soon. Southern Miss HC Larry Fedora, a consistent winner in Hattiesburg, could be another possibility, as might Illinois o.c. Paul Petrino, brother of you-know-who at Arkansas.

Neil Callaway, UAB…Bringing a 15-33 four year-mark and no winning records into your fifth year on the job is bad enough. Then losing your first two games each by 39 points and by a combined 88-10 score makes things worse. When adding in that one of those defeats was against lowly Tulane by a 49-10 count, the situation becomes critical.

In a nutshell, there you have the plight of UAB HC Callaway, who might have only been hanging on to his job by a thread anyway, fortunate that the Blazer athletic department is not awash in the sort of funds that can buy out coaching contracts whenever it wishes. Which is partly why Callaway survived a fourth straight losing season a year ago.

Some CUSA sources are wondering if the addition of the well-traveled Tommy West, Callaway’s new defensive coordinator and formerly the head coach at Clemson and Memphis, could also provide a serviceable stop-gap alternative should the administrators decide to pull the plug on Callaway before this season is complete. Or, perhaps, if West might be the coach UAB already has in mind as a successor. The Blazers are not going to pay big bucks for a new coach and might figure they would do no better on the open market than West, who did actually take Memphis to five bowls in a six-season span in the past decade and would figure to work a lot more cheaply than other candidates in the marketplace. If the Blazers continue to get clocked, which could happen the next few weeks at East Carolina, Troy, home vs. Mississippi State, at Tulsa, then home vs. UCF, Callaway’s regime could be history before Halloween. And we once again might be welcoming Tommy West back into the head coaching mix.

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Written by Joseph D'Amico on September 28, 2011 at 10:10 am