TGS COLLEGE HOOPS SPECIAL REPORT…NEW “BRACKETOLOGY” UPDATE!

By monitoring how we believe the Big Dance would shape up at the moment, it provides a valuable barometer regarding the progress of the current season. Postseason considerations start to become a bigger issue as we swing into mid-February, as teams begin to position themselves to make a late-season run…or fall by the wayside. And by updating our tourney projections on a recurring basis, we can get some idea of a team’s trajectory by seeing how it compared to the last update.

The one change of note in this year’s NCAA Tourney is the addition of three more at-large teams, bringing the field to 68 teams. There will now be four “play-in games” (which the NCAA is calling the “First Four”) at Dayton instead of just one between the two lowest-seeded teams as in recent years. This season, the four lowest at-large seeds will play for a pair of 12 seeds when the sub-regionals commence March 17 and 18, while the four lowest-seeded overall teams will contest for a pair of 16 seeds.

Following are our latest Big Dance projections. Straight-up records and RPI numbers are through February 9. We’ll continue to periodically update our “Bracketology” via TGS website and TGS Hoops issues in the coming weeks.

At Cleveland…

1 Pitt (SUR 22-2, RPI-3) vs. 16 Long Island (18-5, 111)…We suspect that the winner of the Big East will probably garner a number one seed somewhere; our bet right now is that Pitt would fill one of those slots, and for the moment noses out Duke for a regional top seed. A matchup vs. the Blackbirds of Long Island would rekindle memories in many oldtimers who remember LIU from the long-ago glory days of coach Clair Bee, also the author of the Chip Hilton books whose teams won 95% of their games between 1931-51.

8 Saint Mary’s (20-4, 24) vs. 9 George Mason (20-5, 78)…The Selection Committee occasionally puts together a couple of high-profile mid-major matchups in the first round, and this one might be as good as they get this March. Both the Gaels (now drawing clear in the WCC with Gonzaga faltering) and Patriots look to be closing in on at-large berths even before their conference tournaments begin in a few weeks.

At Tulsa…

4 Kentucky (17-6, 15) vs. 13 Fairfield (18-5, 90)…We know that John Calipari’s UK Wildcats are having all sorts of trouble winning league games on the road. But they are dominating in Lexington and figure to improve as the season continues with freshmen Terrence Jones, Brandon Knight and Doron Lamb becoming more and more comfy with their surroundings. Meanwhile, the Fairfield Stags have begun to draw clear in the Metro-Atlantic, but they’ll still have to overcome expected challenges from the likes of Rider, St. Peter’s, and Iona in the upcoming MAAC Tourney, this year being played in Bridgeport, CT (an advantage for the nearby Stags) after several years in Albany.

5 Texas A&M (18-5, 36) vs. 12 St. John’s (13-9, 35)/Washington State (16-7, 47)…A&M won a big midweek game on Wednesday at Colorado in overtime to prevent from slipping down the seeding ladder, which had become rather slippery for the Aggies after three previous defeats. Steve Lavin’s St. John’s has claimed enough big scalps to get the attention of the Selection Committee, although the Red Storm could have really helped itself by beating Lavin’s former employer UCLA last weekend. As for Washington State, the Cougars are losing too often in the Pac-10 to feel comfy about an invitation; a play-in date seems about right for Wazzu.

At Charlotte…

2 Duke (22-2, 5) vs. 15 Florida Atlantic (18-7, 117)…It really doesn’t mean too much to Duke to get a number one or a number two seed; the Blue Devils are still likely to get placed in the favorable Charlotte sub-regional, and if they stay in the East region can count upon lots of support if they make it to the Sweet Sixteen (which would be a surprise if they don’t) in Newark. The Sun Belt race has finally taken on a bit of definition with FAU emerging as the team to beat. If the Owls qualify, it would mark the fourth school HC Mike Jarvis has taken to the Dance (Boston U, George Washington, and St. John’s previously).

7 Minnesota (16-7, 32) vs. 10 Wichita State (20-5, 53)…Minnesota has not had an easy go of it this season, with plenty of injuries and other distractions; G Al Nolen will hopefully return soon from a knee injury, while Blake Hoffarber’s recent knee scare does not seem serious. Meanwhile, Wichita did not help its at-large cause by losing at home to struggling Southern Illinois on Tuesday night. The Shockers still seem a good bet for an at-large berth if needed, but they can’t afford many more slip-ups like the one vs. the Salukis if they want to avoid must-win mode in Arch Madness at St. Louis. Wichita coach Gregg Marshall is a veteran of past Big Dances, however, with his Winthrop teams of the past decade.

At Tampa…

3 Villanova (19-4, 11) vs. 14 Bucknell (16-8, 93)…With so many Big East entries likely to be jockeying for protected seeds, a couple of those might be sent a little farther away for sub-regional action than normal; hence Villanova’s designation for Tampa. The Wildcats might have been looking at a 2 seed had they not been victim of Rutgers’ upset (in maddening fashion) on Wednesday night. As for Bucknell, recent Big Dance aficionados will recall the Bison being a very dangerous opponent in recent sub-regionals. For the moment, Bucknell is keeping ahead of American U, across the street from NBC’s Washington studios (where Pat Buchanan and Chris Matthews go to work), in the standings, which is important in the Patriot, with the tourney conducted at campus sites.

6 Xavier (17-6, 39) vs. 11 Virginia Tech (15-7, 38)…We’re of the opinion that the Selection Committee might go 3 or 4 deep in the A-10, and that “X” has put itself in very good position with its important midweek win at Georgia. Meanwhile, Seth Greenberg seems determined to make it as hard as possible on himself to make the Dance after so many near-misses in recent years. Results like last weekend’s loss at Boston College will probably keep the Hokies once more riding the bubble all of the way to Selection Sunday.

At Cleveland…

1 Ohio State (24-0, 1) vs. 16 Northwestern State (14-10, 249)/Texas Southern (11-10, 230)…Now we’re beginning to wonder if Ohio State might really be able to run the regular-season table; we’ll have a much better idea by next weekend, when the Buckeyes will have played at both Wisconsin and Purdue. No matter, a sub-regional spot in Cleveland seems almost assured. As does the fact the Southland and SWAC reps are probably going to be two of the four teams involved in the 16 vs. 16 play-in games at Dayton. Both leagues continue to be jumbled, and at the moment it is only an educated guess that pits Northwestern State and Texas Southern against one another.

8 Cincinnati (19-5, 20) vs. 9 UCLA (16-7, 50)…The sub-regionals could be a trip down memory lane for Cincy if the matchups set up as we have them this week. A battle vs. UCLA would recall an epic Final Four semifinal matchup at Louisville in 1962, won by the Bearcats 72-70 on Tom Thacker’s desperation shot at the buzzer. And all old Cincy fans recall the Bearcats beating big, bad Ohio State in both the 1961 and ’62 finals. The Bruins have caught a bit of an updraft and might even be moving into the Pac-10’s second position with Washington suffering several setbacks in the past two weeks.

At Washington, D.C…

4 UConn (17-2, 12) vs. 13 Belmont (22-4, 34)…There’s still time for UConn to lay claim to a higher seed than this, but we suspect some more losses await in the tough Big East that will probably keep the Huskies from climbing couple of rungs, although not out of protected seed territory. No one will be overlooking Belmont, which has drawn clear in the Atlantic Sun and pushed both crosstown Vanderbilt and Tennessee to the brink this season. As Rick Byrd’s Bruins did a few years ago when scaring the daylights out of Coach K and Duke in the first round.

5 Temple (17-5, 31) vs. 12 Virginia Commonwealth (20-6, 74)…Get ready for the barrage of questions regarding Temple, and how come the Owls haven’t won an NCAA game the past three years under HC Fran Dunphy. We don’t know the answer, either. We would not be surprised to see the Committee reach two-deep into the competitive Colonial Athletic Association, either, as VCU and red-hot George Mason seem to have emerged as viable at-large candidates.

At Tulsa…

2 Notre Dame (19-4, 13) vs. 15 Vermont (19-5, 92)…Notre Dame continues to avoid a lot of the banana peels in the Big East and is moving into solid position in protected seed territory. As we’ve said all along, we’re going to keep our eyes on the Fighting Irish in March because of their all-senior starting lineup. No Taylor Coppenrath or coach Tom Brennan on the scene anymore at Vermont, but the Catamounts are favored for a return trip to the Dance as they lead the America East.

7 Tennessee (15-9, 42) vs. 10 UNLV (18-6, 25)…We can’t be absolutely sure the Vols are in safe territory because of their number of losses, but the Vols also have several very good wins in their satchel (Villanova, Pitt, Memphis, Missouri State, Virginia Commonwealth, Vanderbilt) that ought to come in handy on Selection Sunday. The Mountain West should at least be a three-bid league, and as long as UNLV doesn’t completely self-destruct in the next few weeks, Lon Kruger’s Runnin’ Rebels ought to squeeze in on the safe side of the cut line, helped by non-conference wins over Virginia Tech, Wisconsin and Kansas State.

At Charlotte…

3 North Carolina (17-6, 16) vs. 14 Oakland (17-9, 61)…We saw enough from the Tar Heels in their near-miss at Duke on Wednesday night to suggest Roy Williams indeed has a team capable of garnering a protected seed. What would be interesting to see is if both UNC and Duke get placed in Charlotte, and how fans of each would be cheering hard against the other in their games. Oakland has taken control of the Summit and rates a solid choice for that upcoming conference tourney. Remember, the Golden Grizzlies have been to the Dance before, and did win at Tennessee in mid-December.

6 Missouri (18-6, 22) vs. 11 Alabama (15-7, 67)…Mizzou has been going a bit back-and-forth in the Big XII race and seems to be settling into a 5-7 seed range. We’ll split the difference and give Mike Anderson’s team a six. This is also the first time we have projected Anthony Grant’s Bama or any SEC West team into the field all season, but the Tide have taken control of their half of the conference and look to be on their way to at least 20 wins, which should gain the attention of the Selection Committee.

At Tucson…

1 Texas (21-3, 2) vs. 16 Hampton (18-5, 151)/Northern Colorado (13-9, 134)…Texas remains unbeaten in Big XII play after easing past Oklahoma on Wednesday night and appears to be on course for a regional top seed. The Southwest would be the preferred destination with the Regional finals in San Antonio. There’s a chance that MEAC power Hampton could avoid the play-in game; the Pirates are the only school from the loop that might be able to do it, but for the moment we project Hampton against Big Sky Northern Colorado, engaged in a fierce battle with Montana for the conference lead.

8 Florida State (16-7, 41) vs. 9 Marquette (15-9, 29)…Florida State has stepped in a few puddles lately, but the Seminoles’ defense is still one of the nation’s best and ought to keep Leonard Hamilton’s team on the safe side of the cut line until further notice. Marquette has mastered the art of the close defeat, but the Golden Eagles could nonetheless be a dangerous entry in the Dance. As long as Marquette keeps from slipping under .500 in Big East play, we suspect they’ll make it in safely.

At Washington, D.C…

4 Syracuse (20-5, 8) vs. 13 Princeton (17-4, 85)…This could be a potentially scary matchup for Syracuse, which has lost 5 of its last 7 games and might be in danger of falling out of protected seed territory if it takes too many more defeats. The early-season win over Michigan State that seemed so impressive at the time also doesn’t figure to help the Orange too much on Selection Sunday. As for Princeton, it is now officially in control of the Ivy race after disposing of top contenders Harvard and Penn within the last week.

5 Vanderbilt (16-6, 26) vs. 12 UTEP (18-5, 68)…The Commodores are still considered a stealth Final Four contender by some hoop aficionados; if the Dores ever get all hands on deck (which means a healthy Andre Walker and Lance Goulbourne), we wouldn’t dismiss their chances. Like Mike Jarvis and a few other coaches in this year’s projected field, UTEP HC Tim Floyd could be on the verge of taking his fourth different school to the Dance after previously steering New Orleans, Iowa State, and Southern Cal into March Madness.

At Tucson…

2 San Diego State (24-1, 7) vs. 15 Murray State (18-6, 115)…Barring a late-season collapse, San Diego State appears to be in very good shape for a protected seed. Now, the question is if the Aztecs are going to be up to winning their first-ever NCAA tourney games. We’ll find out soon enough. Meanwhile, the Ohio Valley race has turned in Murray State’s direction in recent weeks, although Morehead State, Austin Peay, and Tennessee Tech are lurking in what should be a wild OVC Tourney in Nashville early next month.

7 Washington (15-7, 30) vs. 10 Duquesne (16-6, 44)…Forgive us for still being a bit skeptical about U-Dub, which has struggled away from Seattle all season and dropped three games on the Pac-10 road last week (at Washington State, Oregon State, and Oregon). We’re wondering if we shouldn’t move the Huskies lower on the seeding scale. As for Duquesne, right when the Dukes looked to be putting the seal on their first NCAA bid since Norm Nixon’s days in 1977, came a loss at St. Bonaventure. But since we believe the Committee could go four deep in the A-10, we still have the Dukes in the field.

At Chicago…

3 Purdue (19-5, 9) vs. 14 College of Charleston (17-7, 79)…Purdue is cruising along well enough to probably get itself a protected seed, but we are always going to wonder what might have been for the Boilermakers this season had F Robbie Hummel not suffered another knee injury in preseason workouts. By us, Hummel made Purdue a Final Four contender, not a Sweet Sixteen-type entry. If Bobby Cremins’ College of Charleston emerges from the Southern Conference, beware, as the Cougars were good enough to win at Tennessee in late December, and Cremins is a veteran of many past March wars (both as a player and coach).

6 Louisville (18-6, 18) vs. 11 Georgia (16-7, 54)…Louisville was one of the Big East teams we thought might really begin to have problems when conference play commenced, but the Cardinals have at least kept their heads above water, and at the moment appear to be a pretty safe distance away from the cut line. As for Georgia, the Dawgs are likely to ride the bubble all of the way to Selection Sunday, and they won’t have a chance for another statement intersectional win after blowing Tuesday night’s game vs. Xavier.

at Denver…

1 Kansas (23-1, 4) vs. 16 Long Beach State (13-10, 121)…Kansas would probably prefer the Southwest Regional assignment (with the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight in San Antonio), but unless the Jayhawks win the Big XII Tourney over Texas, we suspect Bill Self’s team probably gets shipped west. Meanwhile, the Big West is in danger of its champion being placed in a 16 vs. 16 play-in game, although Dan Monsen’s Long Beach State is one of the few conference teams that might be able to avoid that fate.

8 Illinois (15-8, 27) vs. 9 Richmond (18-6, 46)…Richmond made the Dance last year but was KO’d in the first round by Saint Mary’s; a similar-looking bunch of Spiders could spin a web around some unsuspecting foe in March. We’re projecting four Atlantic-10 invitations at the moment. That’s only one less than we’re forecasting for the Big Ten, where Illinois might be the last loop entry to get a call (especially with Michigan State floundering in recent weeks).

At Chicago…

4 Wisconsin (18-5, 14) vs. 13 Cleveland State (21-5, 49)…Badger fans would likely react very kindly to being sent to nearby Chicago. We suspect Bo Ryan’s team needs to stay in the top three of the Big Ten race to qualify for this type of protected seed. After losing twice to Butler, we’re not sure Cleveland State is going to be able to enter the Horizon Tourney on safe at-large footing, although the Vikings seem to have avoided banana peels a bit better than most other league entries.

5 Florida (19-5, 23) vs. 12 Memphis (18-6, 71)/Missouri State (18-6/70)…It might surprise a few people that Billy Donovan’s Florida Gators have not won an NCAA Tourney game since beating Greg Oden (remember him?) and Ohio State in the 2007 championship game. They’ll get a chance to change all of that in March. The other 12 vs. 12 play-in game could feature several different foes. At the moment, we think Memphis might be climbing its way back into the frame with a couple of important road wins at Gonzaga and an escape on Wednesday night at UCF. As for Mizzou State, we still think the Committee goes two-deep in the Valley, but the Bears might have to at least reach the conference title game in St. Louis to keep the Committee interested in an at-large bid.

At Denver…

2 BYU (23-2, 6) vs. 15 Coastal Carolina (22-2, 76)…Okay, we’re officially into “BYU mode” now that we have hit mid-February and must make the concessions to LDS rules and make sure the Cougars are involved in Thursday-Saturday regional action. Thus, that means BYU probably stays in the West, because Anaheim is a Thursday-Saturday regional, and for sub-regional action Denver is not only the best geographic fit but also is on the Thursday-Saturday rotation. That’s why we have BYU in the West and San Diego State in the Southwest, which plays its San Antonio regional on a Friday-Sunday rotation. Coastal Carolina is shaping up as a heavy favorite to win the Big South bid and give coach Cliff Ellis his fourth different school in the Dance (previously South Alabama, Clemson, and Auburn).

7 West Virginia (15-8, 19) vs. 10 Clemson (17-7, 40)…It’s a bit touch-and-go at the moment for Bob Huggins’ West Virginia, down to eight scholarship players in recent weeks and having to navigate through the treacherous Big East. But as long as the Mountaineers don’t slide under .500 in league play, they should be able to slip into the field of 68. As should Clemson for what would be a fourth consecutive time, but the first under new HC Brad Brownell, who has taken NC-Wilmington and Wright State to past Big Dances.

At Tampa….

3 Georgetown (19-5, 10) vs. 14 Kent State (15-7, 105)…Remember, Georgetown is prevented from playing in the D.C. sub-regional because the Hoyas home court is the Verizon Center, site of first and second-round action. But we think JT III’s troops are still in the frame for a protected seed after that important midweek win at Syracuse. The MAC title chase has begun to take on some definition, with Kent State and Buffalo emerging as the likely teams to beat. As usual, those differences will be settled at the conference tourney in Cleveland, from where Ohio U emerged last season and went on to upset none other than…Georgetown in the first round.

6 Arizona (20-4, 17) vs. 11 Utah State (22-3, 21)…Arizona’s 25-year run of NCAA appearances ended last season, but Sean Miller appears to have the Wildcats on course for a return to the Big Dance, likely as the top Pac-10 seed. It would seem as if this matchup ought to be played somewhere west of the Mississippi River, but sometimes the Selection Committee moves teams far away from home. We think the Utags are probably in good shape for an at-large; just in case, however, they should not tempt fate by losing in the WAC Tourney as USU did a year ago, especially after Wednesday night’s loss at Idaho took some of the shine off the Aggies and their experienced starting lineup.

Last four in: St. John’s, Washington State, Memphis, Missouri State.
Last four out: Baylor, Maryland, Colorado State, Kansas State.
Next four out: Boston College, New Mexico, Southern Miss, Miami-Florida.