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Super Bowl XLV props: What works best February 01, 2011 6:13 AM by The Gaming Todays Ted Sevransky
Sharps are NOT loading up on either side for this game. They loved GB at pick’em, they loved Pittsburgh at +3. Now that the point spread has settled between the two numbers, we’re seeing lukewarm support for both sides, perhaps a notch or two more on the Packers side than the Steelers.
We definitely saw a bevy of sharps pounding the UNDER when it hit 46 last week, now down to 44 or 44½. Sharps love the Dom Capers vs. Dick LeBeau defensive coordinator matchup with extra time to prepare. And we’ve seen UNDER cash in 5 of the last 6 Super Bowls. The Steelers-Cardinals Super Bowl was the exception, and that game was a dead UNDER until the wild final five minutes.
Enough with the side and total! The real story about the Super Bowl comes from the plethora of proposition wagers available to wager on.
For the sake of brevity, I’m going to concentrate on prop bets that are 1) at the Hilton and 2) got bet hard when the Hilton opened their numbers last week.
Jay Kornegay and his staff are the industry leaders when it comes to Super Bowl props. I’ll happily give them the attention they deserve here
Rodgers rushing yards
Aaron Rodgers got bet up for his rushing numbers. Rodgers first rush of the game OVER 4½ yards took money, as did the OVER 18½ for the game. Bettors expect him to scramble out of the pocket against LeBeau’s blitzes effectively, like he’s done all year.
Rodgers completions
There was also some upwards pressure on Rodgers at O/U 22½. Pittsburgh had the best defense in the NFL at avoiding explosive plays – no team allowed fewer plays of 20 yards or more. We can expect Rodgers to have to throw underneath which equals more completions, not more yardage. The yardage prop (O/U 274½) has not moved nearly as much as OVER completions.
Nelson receptions
Jordy Nelson is attracting quite a bit of wiseguy support at O/U 40½ yards and O/U 3½ catches. Again, the season long numbers suggest under, but current form demands OVER. In two playoff games: Nelson has 12 catches, for 143 yards. Like Green Bay’s defense, the Steelers have shown vulnerability to the No 3 and 4 receivers with their blitzing schemes.
Starks rushes
James Starks OVER 16. Bettors watched Starks unable to gain yardage or first downs as Green Bay struggled to run out the clock against the Bears in the NFC Championship Game. And they know that the Steelers had the top rushing defense in the NFL this year.
That’s why Starks over 49½ yards hasn’t attracted as much attention as his number of carries. Green Bay is favored, so Starks should get his fair share of carries in the second half if GB is trying to run out the clock. In three playoff games, he’s had 23, 25 and 22 rushing attempts, despite only getting 29 for the entire regular season. Bettors expect that current form to continue.
Miller -23.5 rec yds vs Kuhn
Money poured in on Heath Miller 23½ (-120), then 26½ -120, then 28½ -120. Money also came on Heath Miller OVER 37½ receiving yards for the game. Green Bay’s defense is vulnerable to big days from the opposing tight end. Their secondary does a dynamite job containing the 1 and 2 receivers, but not so good against the tight ends going over the middle.
Big Ben passing yds
(1st half vs 2nd)
This line opened pick (-120 on the second half, and immediately got hit with heavy money. Pitt came out running vs. the Jets. Packers favored means they should be leading at halftime, forcing Pittsburgh into a more pass heavy attack. Steelers ran well against the Jets, so expect a similar game plan. LESS 1st HALF Roethlisberger pass attempts.
Will there be OT?
Every year, wiseguys lay heavy juice on props that the ‘squares’ love to hit at plus prices. The classic is this one. NO is 44-0. Squares bet the ‘Yes’ every year looking for the longshot score. Sharps happily lay -1100 to win $100.
Polamalu INT?
Sharps bet the No -300. Troy Polamalu is not going to be 100%, basically a non-factor in the Steelers first two playoff games. This is another type of heavy juice prop that professional bettors are willing to lay. Squares look for the plus price.
Will there be a safety?
A similar story with the Squares looking for the plus price – nearing 10-1.
Either team scoring 3 straight times?
YES (what wiseguys bet) is -175 and NO at a nice plus price.
Longest TD
Sharps look to bet UNDER. Squares bet that same prop OVER, even though it tends to be priced in the -115 range.
Packers with rush attempt
Sharp money in on OVER 4. GB’s last eight games saw 4 with four rushers and 4 with 5. Those are very different recent numbers compared to their full season numbers. James Starks, Rodgers, John Kuhn and Brandon Jackson are virtual ‘locks’ to get at least one carry.
Steelers with rush attempt
One end around or reverse and OVER tickets cash. Pittsburgh was lined at 4½, not taking anywhere near the same amount of Over money.
Players catching passes
Some books opened GB and Pitt O/U 6½ different players with a reception. Hilton opened that prop O/U 7½. Needless to say, the books that opened 6½ are OVER -200 or higher.
First catch: Wallace vs. Jennings
Greg Jennings is a heavy favorite. Current form shows a dramatic decline from Mike Wallace in the playoffs, catching only four passes in Pittsburgh’s two wins. Meanwhile, the Packers targeted Jennings with their first two plays from scrimmage in the NFC Championship Game, and finished with 8 for the second consecutive week.
Longest punt
Tim Masthay of Green Bay took some money with his longest punt OVER 54½ yards bet up to 55 (-130) right from the get-go. Masthay also took some ‘no touchback’ money, even at -200. He only had five touchbacks all year, compared to 25 punts downed inside the 20.
