Joseph D'Amico

Sports Handicapping Short Cuts Never Win Long Term by Ross Benjamin

 

One of the growing resources utilized by the masses is the public betting information offered by a variety of sources. There are many sports bettors, sports services, and sports betting information sites that need a short cut use this data. When given the choice the above mentioned would choose to be on the side of the “house”, or that opposite of the betting public. Alternatively, others subscribe to the theory that there is “strength in numbers”. Neither belief is far from foolproof and given some initial limited success with either can be a fool’s gold with no pun intended.

I will say this. If you’re going to use this logic applying it to basketball and football has a lot more substance than baseball. It’s a proven fact over the years that the most money wagered is on football. The books then see that money wagered on football cut by 50 to 75 per cent on basketball, and 90 per cent or more on baseball. Simple mathematical logic would tell you that books are more inclined to move baseball money lines more rapidly when a large amount of money comes in on one side because there’s just not enough volume of bets coming in that can offset the big money. My logic in this regard is simple. Not all large bets are sharp bets. Then again if it’s from a Las Vegas Wise Guy who’s a proven winner then what’s to say the public isn’t all over the same side?

There are no short cuts as it applies to what a true sports handicapper does. It strictly hours of a daily research, developing successful theories, and having the ability to recognize value. Successful sports handicappers can care less about any other opinions because they consider their wagers and selections to be razor sharp. They realize that every day or week won’t always be a winning one but that their methods will make a substantial profit over the course of time.

All of which brings me to this point. There’s a distinct difference between a true full time professional sports handicapper and a sports service. A lot of successful sports services use this simple reverse theory and then spend the majority of time dreaming up a sales pitch to deceive potential clients. The old cliché of throwing something up against the wall and hoping it sticks describes their techniques the best. A successful sports handicapper spends the majority of time perfecting his craft and then the product will sell itself. Of course besides making money on their own wagers they also still need to do some degree of marketing like any thriving business does to bring in a constant flow of new customers. The difference being the marketing is believable, realistic, documented, and done with a high degree of ethics. Then why do they need to sell their picks if they’re that good some would ask? Now that’s a good question! The answer comes in the form of simple math and is taught in Business 101. The more successful their winning percentage (product) is the greater the incoming revenue stream, and the larger the client base becomes. Consequently the larger their bankroll becomes allows them to increase their bets in a more rapid fashion. It all starts with the hardest part, which is the product, and the rest then fits like a glove.

I once had an owner of a successful sports service located in South Florida say to me that the only difference between the time I take to do my work compared to his selections only added up to between 2% to 4% winners. His point was my time would be better served spending more on selling the product than it would be to better the product. My initial response was to say he was a bit low on his estimate but I bit my tongue so as not to be confrontational. However, lets be hypothetical and say he was somewhat accurate. At 4% a $1000.00 bettor would make an additional $8400.00 more per 100 bets based on 10% juice, a $500.00 better makes $4200.00 more, and a $100.00 better makes $840.00 more. Then when you factor in the fees your clients pay you, the fact you are wagering your own money, how’s 4% better not worth the extra time and hard work? Those same types of individuals will also make every excuse as to why their selections aren’t monitored by a credible independent source. For them it’s much easier to make up records when you can’t maintain a clientele for any reasonable period of time. Then again you know what they say about pathological liars they actually believe themselves over time. At the end of the day I sleep very well and am able to wake up looking in the mirror. I’m more than okay in what I see.

 

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