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Dave Price
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Bryan Leonard
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Jimmy Boyd
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Tom Stryker
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NFL Preseason Betting Recap and Quick Peek Ahead by Ross Benjamin
The first full week of the NFL preseason has concluded and left us with something interesting observations. Before the start of the week, NFL road teams had scored 44 points or more in a game just 11 times. Last week both Baltimore and Buffalo scored 44 points in each of their road wins. Ironically both the Bills and the Ravens did so while playing as an underdog. The Ravens pounded the Buccaneers at Tampa Bay 44-16 as a 3.0-point dog. Meanwhile in the final game of the week Buffalo crushed Indianapolis 44-20 at Lucas Oil Stadium as a 5.0-point dog.
Home favorites didn’t fare well last week going 4-8 SU&ATS. Tightening things up even more, we’ll discover that a home favorite or underdog of 3.0 or less last week went a dismal 3-10 SU&ATS. In the 16 games played 9 went over the total and 7 went under. Games where the number was 35.5 or less saw 4 of the 5 go over the total. Another notable observation was the fact that Pittsburgh had their 10-game home winning streak in the preseason snapped in Saturday night’s loss to the New York Giants. By the way all 11 of those Steelers home games came under the watchful eyes of head coach Mike Tomlin.
One of my many handicapping methods during the preseason takes place when a team playing in their 2nd preseason game takes on an opponent participating in their opener. If we really hone in on this situation, the team playing in their 2nd game, and their coming off a loss, has been historically a solid selection. Without looking at any other queries, teams in that exact scenario are 35-19 ATS (64.8%) since the 1987 preseason. Then if we query how road teams do in that exact situation we find that number improves to 20-6 ATS (77.0%) over that same time frame. Last week the Miami Dolphins were a qualifier. The Dolphins opened the preseason with a loss to the Dallas Cowboys in the Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio. The Dolphins followed that up last week by routing Jacksonville 27-3 on the road as a 1.5-point favorite.
The aforementioned Dallas Cowboys weren’t as fortunate losing 19-17 on the road to the Oakland Raiders. That makes teams playing in their 2nd game when coming off a win, versus an opponent in their preseason opener a dismal 11-22 ATS since 1995. Tightening things up even more is if that team was a favorite like the Cowboys were last week the number drops to a horrendous 4-16 ATS, including 0-5 ATS if they were an away favorite.
Looking ahead to this week we find that 13 of the 16 games currently have a posted total of 40.0 or more. Why is that significant? Well last week we saw 15 of the 16 games close at a total of 37.5 or less. Since the 1980 preseason there have been 129 games that closed with a total of 40.0 or more. That equates to an average of less than 4 games a week over the last 33 preseason campaigns. With 13 games falling under that category, which is a bit more than 9 games above the weekly average since 1980, there certainly can be a vast array of opinions formed as to what the books are thinking in regards to this abrupt adjustment.
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