Looking at NFL in 2011, it’s clear that, despite the
unbeaten Packers, parity has returned. Look at teams that were recent doormats
who are playing well: Lions, Bills, Bengals, Texans, 49ers and Broncos. Even the
Panthers and Dolphins have been competitive, with shots at respectable seasons
after bad starts.
The season is also littered with flops. The Vikings,
Chargers, Bucs and Colts were expected to be better and but were out of it at
the halfway point of the season. The Rams had high hopes but have disappointed,
and even the mighty Patriots are a huge postseason question mark with the 32nd
ranked defense. The same Pats’ team that was 14-2 a year ago.
The
Chargers have been big flops after a 4-1 start, failing to cover in 6 straight,
all losses. The Colts, too, have been money-burners, becoming the first team
since 2007 to be a 20-point underdog last week. They covered, despite trailing
31-3.
Oddsmakers make adjustments on teams all during the season, such
as two years ago when the Saints and Colts started red hot. After starting 6-0
SU/ATS, the Saints went 2-8 ATS to end the regular season, often as a double
digit favorite. That’s what can happen to public teams, either popular teams or
ones with a flashy offense like the 2009 Saints and 2007 Patriots.
This
season all eyes are on Green Bay to not only repeat as champs but to run the
table. That’s exciting, but it also overshadows the fact that the NFL is very
much competitively balanced and parity driven.
Normally we are at the
time of the pro football campaign where some teams have mentally and physically
packed in the season. It’s been a lost season or one with higher expectations
and players, especially ones on poorly coached teams, can just go through the
motions. That can show up on the scoreboard and at the wagering window.
The 49ers were in that group a year ago at this time, with the heat on
Mike Singletary in what was supposed to be a better season. Fast forward one
year and San Francisco is completely different, winning the division under new
coach Jim Harbaugh, starting 10-2 straight up and 10-1-1 against the number.
There will be not late season letdown with this motivated group as it must be
fun for all of them to come to work.
That’s not the case with all teams,
however. The Rams have been a disaster, on a recent 2-10 ATS run. It’s hard to
believe that back in August this team went from 45-to-1 to win the Super Bowl to
40-to-1. Somebody put some dough on them to win it all! Now that ticket might as
well be used for a Christmas fire to keep warm by.
It’s also hard to
believe they were favorite in back to back games recently, yet lost to Seattle
(24-7) and Arizona (23-20), both at home. You have to wonder when Jacksonville
might pack it in after firing their head coach, Jack Del Rio. There was a lot of
emotion on Monday night football for their new head coach, but the Jags got
steamrolled by the Chargers, 38-14. Defensive coordinator Mel Tucker is the
interim coach and he has added an uptempo offense with rookie QB Blaine Gabbert,
not a bad idea.
What really stood out, though, was injuries to the
Jaguars’ cornerback corps were exploited by veteran quarterback Philip Rivers,
who threw three touchdown passes. Cornerbacks Rashean Mathis, Derek Cox and
William Middleton are on injured reserve with knee injuries. So the Jaguars
started Ashton Youboty and undrafted rookie Kevin Rutland. Rivers torched
Rutland once and twice victimized Youboty, who was then pulled for Morgan Trent,
who signed with the team last week!
Teams that need to be watched
closely as on the bubble for packing it in might be the Browns, Bills, Chiefs,
Cardinals, Redskins and Bucs. Two years ago the Jaguars melted down in a 0-4
SU/ATS finish, and last season Carolina finished 1-5 SU/ATS. Three years ago the
Raiders (2-3 SU/ATS run), Rams (0-9 SU, 3-6 ATS) and Jaguars (1-5 SU/ATS)
finished up poorly, teams that clearly weren’t giving 100%. The Rams lost their
last nine games under Jim Haslett, their second coach of the 2008 season,
getting outscored 216-73.
2007 was unique for powerhouses, with the
Packers and Cowboys starting 10-1 and the Patriots going 16-0. You may recall
the 4-7 Ravens dominating the 11-0 Pats on Monday night as a +19 dog, playing
with fire before a last second 27-24 defeat. The 2007 Eagles failed to make the
playoffs or have a winning record, but as a +24 dog they gave the unbeaten Pats
all they could handle. New England needed a late TD to survive 31-28. “It was
the most complete game we played all year,” Eagles LB Omar Gaither said.
Offensive lineman Shawn Andrews added, “People built them up to be Goliath. At
the same time, a lot of people made us out to be a 24-point spread, and we know
they’re not that much better than us.”
Pro players have pride and know
the score. Taking out their frustrations on a powerhouse team is not uncommon.
The good teams aren’t that much better from year to year than bad ones. Parity
and the salary cap have leveled the playing field and schedules are longer, all
of which makes it that much harder to dominate.
The 1962 Green Bay
Packers enjoyed a 10-0 start on the way to a 13-1 season, ending in a 16-7 win
in the championship game over the Giants as one of Vince Lombardi’s best teams.
They came close to running the table, except for a surprising Thanksgiving Day
loss to Detroit, 26-14 (trailing 26-0 to the fired up Lions). Even NFL David’s
can be gunning for Goliath this time of the season – if they haven’t already
packed it in.
