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NFL Betting: Turnovers Can Turn the Tide by Jim Feist
Last week the Baltimore Ravens had just 267 total yards in a Sunday night showdown with the Jets and were a measly 6 of 18 on third down. In addition, they averaged 2.8 yards per rush. What a terrible offensive performance! Oh, and by the way the Ravens won the game, 34-17.
Say what? The difference was turnovers, with the Jets coughing it up 4 times (3 fumbles, 1 pick). “The best defensive effort I thought I had ever seen or the most amazing defensive performance I thought I’d ever seen was the Pittsburgh game with seven turnovers,” Baltimore coach John Harbaugh said, referring to Baltimore’s season-opening 35-7 rout. “But this topped it. Turnovers are one of the most basic fundamentals of winning football, both straight up and against the number when analyzing football picks.
Defensive coaches have been preaching more aggressive, attacking stop units over the last 15 years. Coach Steve Spurrier has spent three decades coaching college and pro football, at Duke, Florida, South Carolina and the Washington Redskins. When asked about what the biggest change he had noticed in the college game, Spurrier spoke not about the wide-open passing attack that he helped popularize, but about defenses. He said that when he first took over at Duke in the 1980s, defenses were basic and reacted to what the offense would try and do.
However, since that time, defenses have become far more aggressive, trying to attack the offense rather than sit back and react. The Chicago Bears famed 46 defense caused havoc around the league during a 1985 Super Bowl season. The Bears that year were 18-1 straight up and 15-3-1 against the spread, led by a devastating, attacking defense. They pitched four shutouts and held 14 of 19 opponents to 10 points or less.
Defensive coaches in both the pro and college ranks have been teaching players to not only tackle properly, but to aggressively strip the ball from opposing players. Tony Dungy, Bill Belichick, Rex Ryan and Lovie Smith have used their teaching talents to upgrade defenses. A key component of aggressive defenses is to force more turnovers. They are a huge part of any contest. During the 2008 season, the Miami Dolphins came out of nowhere to win the AFC East in a stunning one-year turnaround. It’s no coincidence that Dolphins led the NFL (+17 in turnover margin) that season, then were minus-8 in TOs the next year going 7-9. The Patriots went 14-2 SU, 10-5-1 ATS last season, setting a record for positive turnover margin. Take a close look at the bottom teams in turnover margin from last season:
2010 Worst TO Margin ATS record
Bills (-17) 8-7-1 ATS
Jaguars (-14) 9-7 ATS
Dolphins (-14) 8-8 ATS
Vikings (-13) 5-11 ATS
Broncos (-13) 6-10 ATS
Bengals (-8) 7-9 ATS
Panthers (-8) 4-12 ATS
Seahawks (-7) 7-9 ATS
None of those teams enjoyed good season, with the Vikings and Broncos huge busts, and Carolina atrocious offensively. Minnesota was the biggest surprise, going from the NFC Championship game in January of 2010 to bottoming out last season in a sea of turnovers behind QB Brett Favre. Now you know an even deeper reason those teams were in such a precarious situation — turnovers.
Only one of the teams on the high turnover list made the postseason (Seattle). Those teams were also a combined 51-70-1 against the spread, a factor to keep in mind when assessing weekly football picks. A quarterback who throws too many picks can kill the momentum of his offense, and his confidence can get worn down. It can even spill over onto the sidelines.
A few years ago in a playoff game, QB Marc Bulger threw 3 interceptions against the Panthers and while the Rams had a chance to win the game late in the fourth quarter, coach Mike Martz decided to play it safe and settled for a game-tying field goal. He was widely criticized for this after the Rams lost in overtime and it’s clear in the back of his mind he was thinking, “I don’t want Bulger to throw another interception. I’d better play it safe.”
That same 2008 season, the top five teams with the best turnover differential — Miami, Tennessee, Baltimore, the Giants and Indianapolis — all made the playoffs with at least 11 wins and combined for a 59-21 record. The Dolphins and Giants each had 13 turnovers, tied for the fewest ever in a 16-game season.
2010 Top TO Margin ATS record
Patriots (+30) 10-5-1 ATS
Packers (+20) 9-7 ATS
Steelers (+17) 10-6 ATS
Falcons (+14) 5-11 ATS
Bucs (+13) 9-5-2 ATS
Eagles (+13) 8-8 ATS
NY Jets (+12) 9-7 ATS
It’s not hard to notice how essential turnovers are. All the top teams in turnover margin made the playoffs in 2010, except the Bucs, and they came real close. Two were the top seeds in their conference (Pats, Falcons). They were a combined 60-49-1 ATS. The Falcons had a 13-3 regular season, but notice this year they are minus in turnovers, a key factor in their disappointing start.
Be careful backing teams that are sloppy at taking care of the football when analyzing football picks. Chances are they don’t win or cover the number as regularly as those that play smart, mistake-free ball.
You can get all of Jim Feist’s free NFL articles, winners, and advice right here at www.aasiwins.com. Visit www.aasiwins.com for all your FREE NFL winning information.
