ACC:
Florida State sits tied atop the ACC standings with a 7-1 conference record. The Seminoles are in first place along with North Carolina; the Seminoles handed the Tar Heels their only conference loss by a whopping 33 points (90-57). Florida State has been a strong defensive team in recent years and they are once again this season. But their biggest improvement has come on the offensive end of the floor and one of the main reasons for that has been the addition of Ian Miller who became eligible right around Christmas. “He’s meant an awful lot to our team and I’d say he has as much to do with our turnaround as anybody,” FSU head coach Leonard Hamilton said. The Seminoles are 6-2 ATS in conference play, including a perfect 3-0 ATS as an underdog.
BIG 10:Penn State has certainly been through the ringer over the last six months. And their basketball team hasn’t been much better with an overall losing record and a dismal 2-9 record in conference play. However, the Nittany Lions have been a tough out on their home court in conference play. While they are just 2-3 SU, they are a money-making 4-1 ATS as underdogs on their home court. Penn State has one of the best players in the Big 10 as guard Tim Frazier is averaging 18.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 6.3 assists per game.
BIG 12:
Texas has played in a lot of close games recently. Nine of the Longhorns’ eleven conference games have been decided by single digits. Texas’ six league losses have come by an average of just 5 points per game. The Longhorns had lost five of their previous six games before defeating Texas Tech on Saturday and rival Texas A&M on Monday night. Texas is an extremely young team as 6 of their 9 rotation players are freshman. They are just 3-7-1 ATS in conference play, including a dismal 0-6 ATS as a favorite. Texas is 3-1-1 ATS as an underdog in conference play, and considering their knack for playing in close games, their above spread numbers should hold form.
BIG EAST:
Seton Hall got off to a fast start this season as the Pirates opened with a 15-2 SU record. However, things have been rough lately as Seton Hall has lost their last six games, while going just 1-5 ATS in the process. The Pirates played their last game without their best player, Herb Pope, who is dealing with a rib injury. Seton Hall needs a healthy Pope on the court in order to correct their offensive woes. Over their last five games, the Pirates are averaging just 55 points per game on 31.6% shooting form the field and 24.8% shooting from three-point land. Seton Hall is 6-3 ATS on their home court this season, and if Pope returns to 100% health, the Pirates may turn things around ATS if they become undervalued after the recent bad results.
PAC 12:
UCLA forward Travis Wear suffered a high ankle sprain in the Bruins’ 71-69 loss at Washington last Thursday night. That’s not good for a thin UCLA team that plays just a 7-man rotation. Wear was the Bruins’ second leading scorer and rebounder averaging 11.8 points and 5.2 rebounds per game. Ironically, UCLA won their first game outside of the state of California this season on Saturday without Wear on the court; the Bruins beat Washington State 63-60. Luckily for UCLA they play three consecutive home games before hitting the road for 3 games to close out February. UCLA is a perfect 4-0 ATS at home in conference play, but keep an eye on Wear’s status as he is an integral part of the Bruins’ success.
SEC:
Mississippi State has three terrific players in Arnett Moultrie, Dee Bost, and Rodney Hood. All three of those guys average over 11 points per game. But they also average over 34 minutes per game because the Bulldogs have been playing the majority of the season with little depth on their bench. However, that’s about to change as key reserves Shaun Smith and Deville Smith have come back from their injuries. Mississippi State was a pointspread machine from mid-November to late-December when they went 8-2 ATS. But since their rotation was shortened, the Bulldogs have gone just 2-7 ATS, including a 2-6 ATS mark in conference play. Mississippi State may become undervalued because of their recent play, and with their reserves back in the mix, the Bulldogs may get back to covering pointspreads.
At www.aasiwins.com, you can find Steve Merril’s free NCAAB winners and articles.
