ACC:
North Carolina has lost starting guard Dexter Strickland for the season after he tore his ACL in his right knee in the Tar Heels last game at Virginia Tech. Strickland was only averaging 8 points per game, but he was the catalyst for North Carolina’s transition game and he actually led the team while shooting 57% from the floor. Strickland’s biggest impact came on the defensive end of the court as he was North Carolina’s best perimeter defender. Against teams with good guard play, North Carolina was vulnerable even with Strickland on the court. But now, that weakness will be exploited more. North Carolina is 5-2 to the Over away from Chapel Hill this season, and we expect more high-scoring games from the Tar Heels on the road without Strickland on the court, especially against teams with guards who can score the basketball.
BIG 10:
Michigan has been playing the majority of the season without one of their better inside players after Jon Horford suffered a stress fracture in his foot back on December 10th. Horford is set to return to the Wolverines’ lineup possibly this week according to head coach John Beilein. “He’s a little rusty as you can expect, but he has practiced with us the last two days. We’ll continue to monitor him and see what he does.” Michigan is just 1-3 ATS in conference play as a favorite, so it will interesting to see if Horford’s return gives the Wolverines a better defensive presence that will allow them to stretch some leads and earn some pointspread covers.
BIG 12:
Missouri is off to their best since 1981-1982 when they opened that season at 19-1. The Tigers currently have 18 wins, and that is ultra impressive considering they are playing with just 7 scholarship players. NCAA rules allow for 13 scholarship players, but Missouri only began the season with 10 guys before losing starting forward Laurence Bowers to a season-ending knee injury and losing two guys to transfer. However, Missouri is ultra thin in the frontcourt and they should struggle when facing teams that have talented inside players. We saw that in Missouri’s lone loss as Kansas State dominated the paint and out-rebounded the Tigers 36-22 en route to a 75-59 blowout win. The Tigers are currently 10-4 ATS, but with some big teams on the horizon, Missouri’s solid pointspread record might begin to incur some losses in the near future.
BIG EAST:
Pittsburgh was the only team in the Big East to win 10 or more league games in each of the last ten seasons. That is not going to happen this year as the Panthers are 0-7 SU in league play. Pittsburgh also had their 58-game home winning streak against non-conference opponents snapped by Long Beach State earlier this season. A major reason for Pittsburgh’s decline is the fact that point guard Travon Woodall missed 11 games with a groin/abdominal injury. But Woodall returned for Pittsburgh’s last game, and since 5 of the Panthers 9 losses have come by 8 points or less, they may hold some pointspread value in the role of an underdog now that Woodall is back on the court.
PAC 12:
USC will be without one of their best players for the rest of the season as forward Aaron Fuller underwent shoulder surgery. Fuller was averaging 10.6 points per game; the Trojans have just one other player (Maurice Jones) who averages more than 8 points per game. USC only has 7 scholarship players on their roster now which means walk-on Daniel Munoz will be inserted into the starting lineup. The Trojans have scored more than 60 points just six times this season; 3 of their 7 pointspread covers have come in those games. In Pac 12 play, USC is just 2-2 ATS as a road underdog, so it will be interesting to see how they perform going forward now that Fuller has been lost for the season.
SEC:
Tennessee’s season has taken a turn for the better since losing by 18 points at Memphis back on January 4th. While the Vols have only won 2 of 5 games since then, they’ve been pointspread machines as they are 4-1 ATS with their only non-cover occurring in overtime when they lost by 4 points at Georgia as a 1½-point underdog. A big reason for the improved play has been their defense; the Vols have held all 5 of those opponents to 65 points or less. Tennessee head coach Conzo Martin also made a lineup change and the Vols welcomed freshman sensation Jarnell Stokes to the court after he had to sit out until mid-January. Tennessee still holds some pointspread value because they are not winning their games straight-up, so keep an eye on the Vols going forward this season.
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