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NCAA College Basketball Teams Going for the Final Four by The Gaming Today’s Ted Sevransky
Today, I’ll break down those 16 teams by region in an effort to predict which squads have the best chance (and which squads offer the best value) to reach the Final Four in Houston.
EAST
Three of the top four seeds survived and advanced as the action switches to the Prudential Center in Newark, N.J.
North Carolina scored an NCAA tournament high 102 points in their opening round matchup against LIU and hung 86 on Washington in the second round. Yet despite those two stellar offensive showings, the Tar Heels are the only team remaining in the dance still looking for their first point spread cover.
The other 15 teams all cashed at least one ticket for their supporters in the two games last weekend. The Tar Heels lack of defensive intensity and their public nature (resulting in a slightly inflated price to back them), leaves them vulnerable to a hot shooting foe this coming weekend.
The Big East took a beating on the opening weekend of the dance, leaving only two of their 11 entrants still standing. While some pundits probably picked UConn to make it this far, Marquette is a major surprise.
The Golden Eagles got past Syracuse despite allowing 55 percent shooting because they dominated the offensive glass and forced turnovers in bunches – two things they’ll need to continue doing successfully in order to continue their postseason success.
No team in the tournament looked better than Ohio State, which completely annihilated Texas-San Antonio by 29 and George Mason by 32. After shooting lights out in Cleveland, including a sick 28-50 mark from three point range, the question is if the Buckeyes can knock down shots at the same pace with the loss of crowd support with the change of venue to Newark?
John Calipari’s postseason track record in his previous stint at Memphis and here at Kentucky has been nothing short of outstanding. These young Wildcats are playing their best basketball of the season right now, 10-1 SU in their last 11 games, the lone loss coming by a single point in overtime on the road at Arkansas.
WEST
At the Honda Center in Anaheim, California, the top three seeded teams advanced. The only ‘surprise’ team in region came in the form of 5 seed Arizona.
Duke won the national title last year and has the look of a serious contender to cut down the nets again. With projected Top 5 NBA draft pick Kyrie Irving back in the lineup for the first time since December (25 points in 41 minutes), Coach K’s rotation now goes eight deep.
Duke has covered four point spreads in five tries since the start of the ACC tournament.
Arizona has an NBA lottery pick of its own in forward Derrick Williams who seemingly single-handedly guided the Wildcats to victories over Texas and Memphis in the first two rounds. However, Sean Miller’s squad is the only remaining team in the tournament that allowed 50% shooting from inside the arcent.
Those of us here in Vegas know how good San Diego State has been and how much talent Steve Fisher has on his roster. The rest of the country is just starting to find out. But the Aztecs looked tight and tentative in their pressure packed double OT win over Temple to reach the Sweet 16; not a team or a program that is used to playing in games of this magnitude.
UConn has been the ultimate ‘refuse to lose’ team here in March: 7-0 SU, 7-0 ATS since the start of the Big East Tournament. Full season power ratings have failed those who have relied on them to accurately assess this morphing squad here in the postseason, with future lottery pick Kemba Walker’s extremely young supporting cast stepping up large on both ends of the court.
SOUTHEAST
The only region to lose the 1 seed in the opening weekend of Big Dance action. The 2, 3 and 4 all survived and advanced to the Superdome in New Orleans, leaving only one shocker in 8 seed Butler.
With a pair of 30+ point games on the opening weekend of the tourney, BYU’s Jimmer Fredette has now scored 30 or more six times in his last seven games; stepping up his play in the absence of suspended big man Brandon Davies. But the Cougars lack of interior size has the potential to be a real thorn in their collective sides, even if Jimmer continues to hang 30+ every night.
Florida lost defensive stopper guard Kenny Boynton to an ankle injury late in their tight win over UCLA. Boynton will need to be at full strength to give the Gators the defensive pressure they’ll need to keep Jimmer contained. And after enjoying tremendous crowd support in Tampa last weekend, the Gators will need to match that same energy and execution in a less friendly venue.
Butler is now 7-1 SU / ATS in the Big Dance over the past two years after knocking off Pitt. The lone SU defeat in this span came by a single bucket in the national championship game against Duke last year. With the experience of Shelvin Mack in the backcourt and the strength of Matt Howard up front, the Bulldogs have a pair of talents who could join last year’s star, Gordon Hayward, on an NBA roster in the not-too-distant future.
Wisconsin survived and advanced against Kansas State despite the fact that their biggest star, guard Jordan Taylor, shot 2-16 from the floor and the Wildcats biggest star Jacob Pullen poured in 38. The Badgers commit the fewest turnovers of any team in the country (by a wide margin).
SOUTHWEST
The ‘carnage’ region with three of the four remaining teams as double digit seeds. That leaves Kansas with the easiest path to the Final Four of any remaining 1 seed.
Richmond is a senior laden team with extraordinary offensive discipline, but the Spiders lack interior size and muscle, unlikely to be able to challenge the Jayhawks in the low post.
Florida State spent most of the year as the single best defensive team in the country, giving them ‘upset’ potential every time. Unfortunately for the Seminoles, their best player, Chris Singleton, is still suffering the aftereffects of a serious foot injury that cost him more than a month of playing time down the stretch.
VCU became the first team in NCAA tournament history to win three games on the opening weekend; all three by double digit margins. It turns out that a team from the Colonial Athletic Conference with 11 regular season losses is good enough to merit an at-large berth, although the Sweet 16 seems about where the Rams should max out.
Kansas is 8-0 SU in their last eight contests, but only covered two point spreads during that entire span — a clear indicator that the Jayhawks are still more than a tad overvalued by the betting markets.
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