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NCAA capsules 68 going for No. 1 by The Gaming Today’s, Mark Mayer
ALABAMA
Record: (21-11 SU, 12-16 ATS)
Way in: SEC at-large
Key wins: Maryland, Purdue, VCU, Detroit, Okla St.
Key losses: Georgetown, Dayton, Kansas St.
Note: If the Tide can avoid Florida (two straight losses), maybe they can make some early noise. Unlikely to reach Sweet 16. 0-4 ATS in last four.
BAYLOR
Record: (27-8 SU, 12-13-1 ATS)
Way in: Big 12 at-large
Key wins: San Diego St., Northwestern, St. Mary’s
Key losses: None outside conference.
Note: Started the season 17-0 before entering Big 12 play. Avenged two losses to Kansas with upset win in Big 12 semis. Baylor sports enjoying career year.
BELMONT
Record: (27-7 SU, 2-5 ATS)
Way in: Atlantic Sun tourney champ
Key wins: None
Key losses: Duke, Memphis
Note: Bruins 0-3 ATS in league tournament. Made mark opening night with 1-point loss at Duke. Headed to OVC next year to join Murray St.
BYU
Record: (0-0 SU, 14-15-0 ATS)
Way in: West Coast Athletic at-large
Key wins: Oregon, Nevada
Key losses: Wisconsin, Baylor
Note: A somewhat controversial pick, but Cougars are at least in Dayton. They do have to get past Iona in the play-in game. Expect a brief stay.
CALIFORNIA
Record: (24-9 SU, 18-13 ATS)
Way in: Pac 12 at large
Key wins: Georgia
Key losses: Missouri, San Diego St., UNLV
Note: Ex-Stanford coach Mike Montgomery is back in the Dance, but Golden Bears figure an early out. Loss to Colorado not good. Just 1-4 ATS last five.
CINCINNATI
Record: (24-10 SU, 15-13 ATS)
Way in: Big East at large
Key wins: Georgia, Oklahoma
Key losses: Xavier, Marshall
Note: Mick Cronin has Bearcats playing extremely well. Yancy Gates, at 6-foot-9, 260 is a man! Warning: Cincy was worst FT shooting team in Big East.
COLORADO
Record: (23-11 SU, 16-14 ATS)
Way in: Pac 12 tourney champs
Key wins: Georgia
Key losses: Maryland, Wyoming, Colorado St.
Note: The Buffaloes were picked next to last in the Pac 12 in preseason. Does that tell you how bad this league has slipped? First NCAA bid since 2003.
COLORADO ST.
Record: (20-11 SU, 16-11-2 ATS)
Way in: MWC at large
Key wins: San Diego, UNLV, New Mexico (all at home)
Key losses: Montana, Colorado
Note: Where are the good white players? At Colorado State. Rams had four on the floor and played smart. CSU will fight to the end. 6-1-1 ATS last eight. Sleeper.
CONNECTICUT
Record: (20-13 SU, 12-16 ATS)
Way in: Big East at large
Key wins: Florida St., Harvard, Arkansas
Key losses: Central Florida
Note: The Jim Calhoun reputation gets UConn in, plus they are defending national champs. Enter NCAA’s on 4-0 ATS run.
CREIGHTON
Record: (28-5 SU, 15-14 ATS)
Way in: MVC tourney champ
Key wins: at Iowa, at SD State, Northwestern
Key losses: None
Note: Blue Jays ranked No. 19 by Rivals.com. Currently on 7-0 SU run.
Had three winning streaks of at least six.
DAVIDSON
Record: (25-7 SU, 17-13 ATS)
Way in: So. Conf champ
Key wins: Kansas
Key losses: Duke, Vanderbilt
Note: Wildcats returned seven of their top eight scorers from last year’s team. Plenty of experience. Handed Kansas stunning loss in Lawrence, 80-74.
DETROIT
Record: (22-13 SU, 13-19 ATS)
Way in: Horizon champ
Key wins: St. John’s, Butler (twice)
Key losses: Notre Dame, Alabama
Note: First NCAA berth since 1999. Beat Valparaiso in tourney final by 20. Valpo had won both previous meetings and led by nine midway in the first half.
DUKE
Record: (27-6 SU, 13-20 ATS)
Way in: ACC at-large
Key wins: Michigan St., Michigan, Kansas
Key losses: Ohio St., Temple
Note: Never count out a Coach K team, especially one that can drain 3’s. But Duke was upset by Florida State in ACC semis and enter the Dance 0-5 ATS in last five.
FLORIDA
Record: (23-10 SU, 13-15 ATS)
Way in: SEC at-large
Key wins: Arizona, Texas A&M
Key losses: Ohio St, Syracuse
Note: Gators had nice run in SEC tourney, but enter NCAA’s 1-5 ATS in last six. Lost three times to Kentucky by 20, 15 and 3, respectively. Need to avoid Wildcats.
FLORIDA ST.
Record: (24-9 SU, 18-13 ATS)
Way in: ACC champion
Key wins: Auburn
Key losses: UConn, Michigan St., Florida, Harvard, Princeton
Note: Leonard Hamilton was named ACC Coach of the Year. Seminoles beat both UNC (twice) and Duke down the stretch. Were 5-0 ATS in last five. Final 4 possible.
GEORGETOWN
Record: (23-8 SU, 15-11 ATS)
Way in: Big East at-large
Key wins: Memphis (2), Alabama
Key losses: Kansas
Note: Ranked No. 13 by Rivals.com. Lost to red hot Cincinnati in two OT’s at Big East tourney. Will be well-rested and hungry for NCAA’s. Likely Sweet 16.
GONZAGA
Record: (25-6 SU, 13-17 ATS)
Way in: West Coast Athletic at-large
Key wins: Notre Dame, Butler, Xavier
Key losses: Illinois, Michigan St.
Note: The Zags have to travel to Pittsburgh giving points against West Virginia. Don’t figure to be much of a factor in the NCAA’s and that’s news.
HARVARD
Record: (26-4 SU, 12-13 ATS)
Way in: Ivy League champ
Key wins: Florida St., Utah, Boston College, St. Joseph’s
Key losses: UConn
Note: First NCAA appearance for Crimson in 66 years. Penn had a chance to force a playoff for the Ivy bid, but lost at Princeton. Closed 0-4 ATS in last four.
INDIANA
Record: (25-8 SU, 0-0 ATS)
Way in: Big Ten at large
Key wins: Butler, NC State, Kentucky, Notre Dame
Key losses: None outside the conference.
Note: First NCAA appearance since 2008. Hoosiers were 12-0 prior to conference play. If that form comes back, look out.
IONA
Record: (25-7 SU, 14-15-1 ATS)
Way in: Metro Atlantic at-large
Key wins: LIU, Vermont, Maryland, St. Joseph’s
Key losses: Purdue
Note: Iona scores a ton of points and will be a lot of fun to watch in Dayton against BYU. If they get to the Dance, OVER may be wise play.
IOWA ST
Record: (22-10 SU, 18-9-1 ATS)
Way in: Big 12 at-large
Key wins: Lehigh, Iowa
Key losses: Michigan
Note: The Cyclones could have been a sleeper Sweet 16, until their draw showed Connecticut and then Kentucky. Still, they are an enticing team as an underdog.
KANSAS
Record: (27-6 SU, 16-15-1 ATS)
Way in: Big 12 at-large
Key wins: Georgetown, UCLA, Ohio St.
Key losses: Kentucky, Duke, Davidson
Note: Surprise loser to Baylor in Big 12 tourney. Still a No. 1 seed, but the luster has been a bit tarnished. KU’s Robinson likely to turn pro early. He’s that good.
KANSAS ST.
Record: (21-10 SU, 13-14 ATS)
Way in: Big 12 at-large
Key wins: Virginia Tech, Alabama, Long Beach St.
Key losses: West Virginia
Note: Worth watching just to see Coach Martin steam. Fell victim to Baylor in Big 12 tourney. Fully capable of making a run to at least the Sweet 16.
KENTUCKY
Record: (32-2 SU, 13-18-1 ATS)
Way in: SEC at-large
Key wins: N. Carolina, Louisville, Kansas
Key losses: Indiana
Note: Overall No. 1 seed in NCAA. Had 24-game win streak snapped by Vandy in SEC tourney final. That takes some pressure off and Calipari is a great motivator.
LAMAR
Record: (23-11 SU, 0-0, ATS)
Way in: Southland champ
Key wins: None outside conference
Key losses: Louisville, Ohio U., Ohio St., Kentucky
Note: Great story with Pat Knight (son of Bob) resurrecting his coaching career after Texas A&M debacle. 5-1 ATS in limited board games.
LEHIGH
Record: (26-7 SU, 7-1 ATS)
Way in: Patriot League champ
Key wins: None
Key losses: St. John’s, Iowa St., Michigan St.
Note: Mountain Hawks didn’t have many games on Vegas boards, but have been stellar when done. Makes NCAA’s for second time in last three years.
LONG ISLAND U.
Record: (25-8 SU, 3-0 ATS)
Way in: Northeast Conference champ
Key wins: Wagner (2)
Key losses: Penn St., Old Dominion
Note: Not much known about Blackbirds, but they covered all three games that Vegas booked. Two-time Northeast champs.
LONG BEACH ST.
Record: (24-8 SU, 18-13 ATS)
Way in: Big West champs
Key wins: Pittsburgh, Xavier
Key losses: San Diego State, Louisville, Kansas, UNC, Kansas St.
Note: First NCAA tourney appearance since 2007. If they get their star Larry Anderson back, watch out for the 49ers. Best team in California.
LOUISVILLE
Record: (26-9 SU, 18-13-1 ATS)
Way in: Big East champ
Key wins: Butler, Vanderbilt, Memphis, W. Kentucky
Key losses: Georgetown, Kentucky
Note: Pitino has Cardinals peaking at the right time. Nobody coaches pressure defense better. Would be a nice pick to go all the way in the Dance.
LOYOLA, MD.
Record: (24-8 SU, 14-11-1 ATS)
Way in: Metro Atlantic tourney champ
Key wins: George Washington
Key losses: Kentucky by 24
Note: First NCAA tourney appearance since 1994. Greyhounds’ 21 wins in regular season was their best ever in Division I. Were 4-0 ATS in MAAC tourney.
MARQUETTE
Record: (25-7 SU, 16-12-1 ATS)
Way in: Big East at large
Key wins: Wisconsin, Washington
Key losses: LSU, Vanderbilt
Note: Ex-UNLV coach Howie Landa has the Golden Eagles as his NCAA sleeper. That’s worth at least a couple of early wagers.
MEMPHIS
Record: (26-8 SU, 17-13 ATS)
Way in: C-USA champs
Key wins: Tennessee, Belmont
Key losses: Michigan, Georgetown (2), Murray St.
Note: Give Tigers credit for keeping the program solid after sanctions and Calipari abandoning ship for Kentucky. Tigers a stunning 10-1 ATS in last 11.
MICHIGAN
Record: (24-9 SU, 17-12-1 ATS)
Way in: Big Ten at-large
Key wins: Memphis, Iowa St., UCLA
Key losses: Duke, Virginia
Note: Wolverine basketball has bounced back, but that blowout loss to Ohio State could have a hangover affect. Still, a Sweet 16 possibility.
MICHIGAN ST.
Record: (27-7 SU, 22-10 ATS)
Way in: Big Ten champion
Key wins: Florida St., Gonzaga, Lehigh
Key losses: N. Carolina, Duke
Note: Didn’t figure to be a No. 1 seed in the Dance, but winning Big Ten tourney combined with Kansas made it happen. Spartans just keep getting better.
MISSOURI
Record: (30-4 SU, 19-9-1 ATS)
Way in: Big 12 champion
Key wins: Notre Dame, California, Illinois
Key losses: None
Note: Being a 30-win team and not a No. 1 seed has to sting a bit. Tigers started 13-0 out of conference. A definite shot at a Final Four berth.
MISS VALLEY ST
Record: (21-12 SU, 2-6 ATS)
Way in: SWAC champ
Key wins: None
Key losses: Notre Dame, UNC, Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa St.
Note: SWAC winners ultimately wind up either in a play-in game or as a 16 seed. Why? Because they either play nobody important or lose to the ones who are.
MONTANA
Record: (25-65 SU, 17-9-1 ATS)
Way in: Big Sky champ
Key wins: Long Beach St.
Key losses: Colorado St., Oregon St., Nevada
Note: Grizzlies finished strong, going 14-5 ATS in last 19. Finished with a 14-game win streak, but all against Big Sky opponents.
MURRAY ST.
Record: (30-1 SU, 16-12 ATS)
Way in: Ohio Valley champ
Key wins: W. Kentucky, Dayton, Memphis, St. Mary’s
Key losses: None
Note: Racers beat three teams ranked in the top 35 RPI. A four-point loss to Tennessee St. ended perfect season. Avenged by 2 in OVC title game.
NEW MEXICO
Record: (27-6 SU, 0-0, ATS)
Way in: MWC tourney champ
Key wins: St. Louis
Key losses: Oklahoma St.
Note: Back to back wins over UNLV and San Diego St. impressive. Steve Alford has done a tremendous coaching job for Lobos. Were 14-2 SU out of the league.
NEW MEXICO ST.
Record: (26-9 SU, 14-12-1 ATS)
Way in: WAC tourney champ
Key wins: New Mexico
Key losses: New Mexico, So. Miss
Note: Aggies a classic case of catching fire at the right time, winning nine of their last 10. Definitely a dangerous team.
NC-ASHEVILLE
Record: (24-9, 7-1 ATS)
Way in: Big South champion
Key wins: Utah
Key losses: N. Carolina, UConn, Tennessee
Note: Bulldogs were preseason pick to win Big South and won the regular season title by four games. Congrats. One and very done.
N. CAROLINA
Record: (29-5 SU, 17-14-1 ATS)
Way in: ACC champion
Key wins: Michigan St., Wisconsin, Long Beach St., Texas
Key losses: UNLV
Note: Tar Heels sat Henson out as a precaution and it nearly cost them the ACC title. Expect all hands on deck and a nice start in Greensboro.
NC STATE
Record: (22-12 SU, 16-14 ATS)
Way in: ACC at large
Key wins: Texas, St. Bonaventure
Key losses: Vanderbilt, Indiana, Syracuse
Note: A bubble team that played its way into the Dance and a favored No. 11 seed against No. 6 San Diego St. Enter Dance on 6-0 ATS run.
NORFOLK ST.
Record: (25-9 SU, 5-1 ATS)
Way in: MEAC champion
Key wins: LIU-Brooklyn
Key losses: Marquette (2), Virginia Tech
Note: First-ever NCAA tourney appearance. Went 5-1 ATS in limited board appearances. Not your Tom Izzo Spartans. 300 Spartans might help.
NOTRE DAME
Record: (22-11 SU, 12-14-1 ATS)
Way in: Big East at-large
Key wins: Detroit
Key losses: Gonzaga, Maryland, Indiana
Note: The Irish have been streaky all season, but right now are sinking again. Just 1-4 ATS in last five. Could be a first-day casualty in the Dance.
OHIO ST.
Record: (27-7 SU, 16-14 ATS)
Way in: Big Ten at-large
Key wins: Vanderbilt, Indiana, Syracuse
Key losses: Kansas
Note: OVER was 6-1 in last seven Buckeyes games. Will go as far as Jared Sellinger takes them. Has had an up and down year. Reached Big Ten final but were beaten by Michigan State. Doubtful they can go the distance.
OHIO U.
Record: (27-7 SU, 14-13 ATS)
Way in: MAC champions
Key wins: Lamar
Key losses: Louisville
Note: Won four straight to capture the MAC, but draws Michigan off a blowout loss to Ohio State. One and done. Didn’t play much outside the league.
PURDUE
Record: (21-12 SU, 17-14 ATS)
Way in: Big Ten at large
Key wins: Iowa
Key losses: Alabama, Xavier
Note: The Boilermakers are a 2-point favorite over St. Mary’s. Here’s a game we definitely wager against Purdue.
SAN DIEGO ST.
Record: (26-7 SU, 15-14-1 ATS)
Way in: Mountain West at-large
Key wins: California, Long Beach State
Key losses: Baylor, Creighton
Note: Not winning the MWC tourney really stings with opening matchup against a hot NC State. The Aztecs reached Sweet 16 last year. Got a very bad draw from NCAA committee. West Coast bias or ACC favortism? Tough road.
SAINT LOUIS
Record: (25-7 SU, 16-10 ATS)
Way in: Atlantic 10 at-large
Key wins: Vermont
Key losses: New Mexico, Temple
Note: Started season 12-2, but the nonconference schedule was soft. Tough draw getting only three against Memphis. Our money is on the favored Tigers.
S. DAKOTA ST.
Record: (27-7 SU, 18-7-1 ATS)
Way in: Summit tourney champ
Key wins: Washington
Key losses: Georgia, Nebraska, Minnesota
Note: First time in NCAA tourney. Jackrabbits just happy to be there. Won seven of last eight, including upset of Oral Roberts, which figured to get the Summit bid.
SOUTH FLORIDA
Record: (20-13 SU, 16-14 ATS)
Way in: Big East at-large
Key wins: Vermont
Key losses: VCU, Kansas
Note: It’s been 20 years since USF made the Big Dance. They need to win the play-in game against Cal. That should happen. Can’t guarantee much more.
SO. MISS
Record: (25-8 SU, 12-17 ATS)
Way in: C-USA at-large
Key wins: Colorado St., New Mexico, So. Florida
Key losses: Murray St.
Note: Enters the Dance on a 0-7 ATS run. Add to that a first round matchup with Kansas State and you have an early exit in blowout style.
ST. BONAVENTURE
Record: (20-11 SU, 18-10-1 ATS)
Way in: Atlantic 10 at-large
Key wins: None outside conference
Key losses: NC State
Note: The Bonnies weren’t going anywhere and all of a sudden three wins in the A-10 tourney and they’re in. First time since 2000. On a 7-1 ATS run in last eight.
ST. MARY’S
Record: (27-5 SU, 13-4 ATS)
Way in: WCC tourney champ
Key wins: BYU
Key losses: Baylor
Note: Gaels were 2-1 against Gonzaga, including a win at Orleans Arena in WCC final. Reached third round of the 2010 NCAA’s, upsetting No. 2 Villanova.
SYRACUSE
Record: (31-2 SU, 16-12-1 ATS)
Way in: Big East at-large
Key wins: Florida, NC State
Key losses: None out of conference
Note: Though a No. 1 seed, only one national title so Orange can’t be trusted. Could go the distance or get bounced in first round. Dangerous to bet on.
TEMPLE
Record: (24-7 SU, 17-14 ATS)
Way in: A-10 at-large
Key wins: Wichita St., Duke
Key losses: Purdue, Texas
Note: The victory over Duke obviously was huge in making the Dance. Should at least get past winner of Cal-USF play-in game.
TEXAS
Record: (20-13 SU, 10-18 ATS)
Way in: Big 12 at-large
Key wins: Temple
Key losses: NC State, North Carolina
Note: The Longhorns can thank a 10-3 nonconference mark and a good reputation for making it in the field this year. Poor all season against the number.
UNLV
Record: (26-8 SU, 14-18 ATS)
Way in: MWC at-large
Key wins: N. Carolina, Illinois
Key losses: Wichita St., Wisconsin
Note: At their best a decisive winner over North Carolina. At their worst, most any game on the road. Enters Dance a horrible 3-10 ATS in last 13.
VANDERBILT
Record: (24-10 SU, 17-13 ATS)
Way in: SEC champion
Key wins: NC State, Davidson, Marquette
Key losses: Xavier, Louisville
Note: Are 7-2 ATS in last nine, including incredible win over Kentucky to win SEC tourney. Could come in overconfident against Harvard in battle of SAT reps.
VERMONT
Record: (23-11 SU, 3-1 ATS)
Way in: America East champ
Key wins: None
Key losses: Harvard, St. Louis, S. Florida, LIU
Note: Had no significant nonconference wins. Game with Lamar on Wednesday in Dayton to make the Dance. If they win, won’t go any further.
VIRGINIA
Record: (22-9 SU, 14-11-1 ATS)
Way in: ACC at-large
Key wins: Michigan
Key losses: TCU
Note: The Cavaliers are gutty, but don’t score enough to be taken that seriously. Enter Dance having lost three of four and 0-3 ATS. Tough matchup with Florida.
VCU
Record: (28-6 SU, 17-13-3 ATS)
Way in: Colonial at large
Key wins: So. Florida, Richmond, W. Kentucky (2)
Key losses: Seton Hall, Alabama, Georgia Tech
Note: Rams were Cinderella last year, reaching the Final Four. This time a juicy opening matchup with Wichita State. No Final Four this go-around.
W. KENTUCKY
Record: (15-18 SU, 18-14 ATS)
Way in: Sun Belt champ
Key wins: None
Key losses: Louisville, Murray St., Tulsa, LSU, VCU (2)
Note: Hilltoppers were 10-18! They caught fire just at the right time, winning and covering last five, including an upset of regular season champ Middle Tennessee.
WEST VIRGINIA
Record: (19-13 SU, 15-14 ATS)
Way in: Big East at-large
Key wins: Kansas St.
Key losses: Miss St., Baylor
Note: You can make the case that Washington, the regular season Pac 12 champ, should have made it in over WVU. But hosting Gonzaga in Pittsburgh is huge.
WICHITA ST.
Record: (27-5 SU, 16-13 ATS)
Way in: Missouri Valley at-large
Key wins: Colorado, UNLV
Key losses: Alabama, Temple
Note: Shockers whipped UNLV shortly after Rebels beat North Carolina. On a 9-1 SU run and 7-1 ATS entering great mid-major matchup with VCU.
WISCONSIN
Record: (24-9 SU, 16-14 ATS)
Way in: Big 10 at-large
Key wins: BYU, UNLV
Key losses: N. Carolina, Marquette
Note: Michigan State showed that if you pressure Badgers’ 3-point shooters they struggle. Fourteen straight NCAA appearances, but will have fits with Montana.
XAVIER
Record: (21-12 SU, 10-19-2 ATS)
Way in: Atlantic 10 at-large
Key wins: Vanderbilt, Purdue
Key losses: Long Beach St., Gonzaga
Note: If you go with trends, forget Xavier. They come into the Dance 1-8 ATS in last nine. X-men only getting 2½ against Irish. Trouble.
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