NCAA Basketball’s Sweet 16: A Buckeye State of Mind by Ted Sevransky of The Gaming Today

The first weekend of the Madness is in the history books and only 16 teams remain standing in the NCAA Tournament. Let’s assess their chances for success as the field gets reduced to the Final Four this coming weekend.

WISCONSIN

A mirror image of their head coach Bo Ryan – tough as nails. No questioning the Badgers’ execution or heart, but this is not one of the more talented teams Ryan has coached at Madison. The Badgers are offensively challenged and rely heavily on three-point shooting. Four of their top five scorers average at least one made three per game.

Their leading rebounder, Ryan Evans, is 6-6, 210; not a team with a dominant inside presence. We’ve seen the Badgers end up on the wrong side of nearly every “step up in class” game away from home except for wins at Ohio State and Vandy to reach the Sweet 16.

SYRACUSE

Fab Melo’s academic ineligibility wasn’t a major factor in either of the two wins to reach the second weekend. It’s not like Orange head coach Jim Boeheim doesn’t have anyone to replace him. A 6-9 frosh gift named Rakeem Christmas had eight points, 11 boards and three blocks in the win over Kansas State.

It doesn’t seem the Orange are devastated by the news of Melo’s so-called “academic ineligibility.” Forward CJ Fair: “I think this is not going to stop our train from moving. Of course Fab is a beast, but we’ve got guys who can go out there and play and keep winning.”

CINCINNATI

On a 12-3 ATS run away from home. A veteran team that consistently plays good basketball in hostile environments. Mick Cronin’s Bearcats notched SU wins at Georgetown, Pitt, UConn, Villanova and St. John’s in Big East play, then knocked off heavyweights Texas and Florida State here in the tourney.

The single most important factor in both wins last weekend might well have been the Bearcats’ true “refuse to lose” attitude, making plays down the stretch of tight games. They’re in excellent current form, 9-2 SU and ATS in their last 11.

OHIO ST.

Outrebounded Loyola-Maryland 46-23 in their tourney opener. They followed that up by completely stifling Gonzaga on the defensive end of the floor, holding the offensively potent Zags under 40% shooting. Thad Matta’s squad doesn’t have great depth, but they’ve got great talent and chemistry.

FLORIDA

Won back-to-back national titles in 2006 and 2007 under Billy Donovan and reached the Elite Eight last year before losing to Butler in overtime. After losing four out of five to close out the regular season, the Gators were never tested in blowout wins over Virginia and Norfolk State to get here. The competition gets much tougher this weekend!

MARQUETTE

Ranked in the Top 10 in the country in assists on one end of the court and in steals on the other end. With a 15-5 ATS mark in their last 20, it’s clear the betting markets have been lagging behind their performance. Big East Player of the Year Jae Crowder poured in 42 points with 29 rebounds, six assists, seven steals and two blocks in the tourney.

LOUISVILLE

Coach Rick Pitino’s defense is outstanding, ranked in the top 10 nationally in defensive field goal percentage allowed and in steals. The offense, however, was ranked 219 in field goal percentage, 260 in three point shooting percentage and 258 in turnovers.

MICHIGAN ST.

One of four Big 10 teams to reach the Sweet 16; most of any conference. But the Spartans track record under Tom Izzo – six trips to the Final Four since 1999 – is second to none in the conference. They tied for the Big 10 regular season title and won the tourney. A legitimate threat to win it all.

INDIANA

Not a dominant defensive ballclub, but good enough to steal one from No. 1 Kentucky with a buzzer beating three pointer at Assembly Hall in Bloomington back in November, despite allowing the Wildcats to shoot 56% from the floor. Kentucky fans will pack the Georgia Dome for the neutral site rematch in Atlanta. The Hoosiers did not fare well stepping up in class in hostile environments for much of the season.

KENTUCKY

Might be the best team in the country, but a point spread disaster area all year. The Wildcats’ 13-22 ATS mark ranks dead last among NCAA tournament teams; consistently overvalued by the betting markets. Coach John Calipari left his starters on the floor for 165 of the 200 possible minutes in the win over Western Kentucky. It was a similar story on Saturday in the near-perfect destruction of Iowa State. Depth could be a legitimate issue moving forward.

XAVIER

Never really got its swagger back after that well-publicized throwdown at the end of a blowout win over Cincinnati back in December. At the time, the Musketeers were 8-0. They went 13-12 in their last 25 games prior to the start of the Big Dance. With veteran backcourt mates Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons leading the way, Xavier made all the big plays during crunch time while beating Notre Dame and Lehigh to get here.

BAYLOR

A frustrating team to watch at times. They’ve got Final Four caliber talent, but their execution down the stretch of tight games was downright miserable for a good portion of the season – turnovers, poor shot selection and a remarkable propensity for blowing leads and ATS covers. The Bears during crunch time do make free throws, hitting at a 75% clip, among the Top 25 in the country.

OHIO U.

Did just about everything right in their tournament opening upset win over Michigan. The Bobcats shot 51% from the floor, 38% from three point range and 88% from the free throw line. All MAC junior point guard DJ Cooper – the same guy who led the Bobcats to a shocking first round upset over Georgetown as a freshman back in 2010 – made all the big plays down the stretch, leading John Groce’s squad to the Sweet 16.

N. CAROLINA

The biggest injury story of the opening weekend was the fractured wrist suffered by star point guard Kendall Marshall. Even though Marshall finished the win over Creighton with his fifth double-double in the last six games, his status for the coming weekend was very much in doubt at the start of the week. Marshall is irreplaceable for Roy Williams.

NC STATE

Peaking at the right time: 6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS in their last seven. The lone loss came by 2 to North Carolina in the ACC Tournament. With all five starters averaging in double figures, and three of the five shooting 50% from the floor or better, Mark Gottfried’s squad is loaded with scoring threats from anywhere.

KANSAS

Ranks in the Top 10 nationally in defensive field goal percentage allowed. The Jayhawks are in the Top 50 in rebounding margin, Thomas Robinson, Jeff Withey and Tyshawn Taylor are all projected draft picks this June. Robinson is as good as any college player I’ve seen all year.

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