Miami – Dallas: Playing for it all by The Sports Network

The Mavericks were favored in that series at minus 151 so the smart folks who wagered $100 to win $151 on the Heat blazed their way to the windows. On the other hand, Dallas did cover four of the six games so the people who sided with the Mavs on a game-by-game basis still came out ahead.

Coming into that 2005-06 NBA Finals, Dallas had won 10 of the previous 12 meetings when the two teams faced off against one another. The Mavs also took the first two games in the ’06 championship series. Unfortunately, they couldn’t maintain the momentum as Miami took care of business in quick fashion winning the next four.

Heading into this series, almost the same exact scenario is in play as Dallas has won the last 10 meetings, including both contests this season. The first game was an 11-point home victory, a game LeBron James shot 5-of-19 to go along with five turnovers. The second matchup was a two-point win at Miami as James, once again, failed to convert from the floor going 6-for-17 with five more miscues.

Despite that, Miami comes into the series is the heavy favorite at -175, mostly due to the fact that LeBron James has gotten his act together and has led the Heat with one exceptional performance after another. His almost flawless play began in the closing game against Boston where he carried his squad into the Eastern Conference Finals scoring the game’s final 10 points in the 97-87 victory.

In the four straight wins over Chicago, James averaged 28.5 points-per-game, and along with Wade, the two superstars blew past the Bulls in game five with a combined 16 points during a ferocious late-game comeback. Still, despite losing only one game straight up and against the spread in its last seven, the Heat has not destroyed its opponents as one would have expected. Two of the wins needed overtime and two more were late fourth quarter comebacks.

Miami has two of the top three players in the series with Dallas so the right team is favored. Nevertheless, don’t discount the underdogs as the West has won nine of the last 12 NBA Finals.

CAN DALLAS TOPPLE THE HEAT?

The Mavericks also needed monster comebacks of their own to take down their last adversary, the Oklahoma City Thunder. Dallas trailed in game four by 15 points with just over five minutes remaining and won it in overtime, and then rallied in the fifth game of the Western Conference Finals pulling it out in the final 4:30 minutes. Furthermore, more than half of their conference playoff games were either decided by six points or less, or in overtime. They are getting some respect as Miami is just a 4.5-point favorite in game one. The last time the two teams played in Miami, the Heat was favored by seven. In addition, Caron Butler, who played in both Dallas wins, is out of the lineup. Given that, why is the line so low, especially since Miami is playing much better ball in late May compared to late December?

A lot of it has to do with Dirk Nowitzki. Take away game three versus Oklahoma City and the 32-year-old has averaged 30.5 ppg in the postseason on 60-percent shooting from the floor, including an amazing 69-percent from three-point territory.

As for the team, the Mavericks have not only won 16 of their last 19, they are 16-2-1 ATS. Moreover, the road has not been a problem considering they are 6-0-1 ATS away from home in the playoffs. The Mavs have also fared very well in Miami during the regular season of late as the last time they failed to cover came all the way back in the 2002-03 campaign. They also went 2-1 ATS in the three road playoff games against the Heat in 2006.

Still, in order to win the title, Dallas must shoot at a high percentage – a task that could be a little too daunting since Miami was second in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage. (The Heat is also currently second in the postseason, a shade behind the Indiana Pacers.)

Dallas also will need major offensive contributions from three veterans in Jason Terry, Jason Kidd, and Shawn Marion. More importantly is how the troika handles the Heat on the defensive side considering their average age is 35- years-old. When compared to the youth of Miami, it seems as if the Mavs will literally be run out of town. James, Wade, and Bosh are all under 30 with their average age at just 27-years-old. The longer the series goes, the more advantageous it will be for the Heat, even though games three, four, and five will be played in Dallas.

Given that, don’t expect Dallas to continue its amazing run both SU and ATS as the Heat will be ready to win its second title in six years. Miami is on a mission to prove all the naysayers wrong so look for the Heat to come through with flying colors and win the title in five.

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