Look for LSU to finish undefeated at Louisiana Superdome by The Gaming Today’s, Micah Roberts

They say defenses win Championships and if that’s true, you’re going to have a hard time picking a side in Monday’s BCS Championship Game between No. 1 LSU (13-0) and No. 2 Alabama (11-1).

Who do you go with, the No. 1 defense in the country or the No. 2 defense? Do you take an LSU squad playing in their home state who beat Alabama on their home field, or go with the team to exact revenge?

By the betting patterns in Las Vegas, the lean has been with Crimson Tide.

Johnny Avello offered the first line on the game with LSU a 1½-point favorite but Alabama has now been bet to the 1½-point favorite. It’s not a major move, but it shows how the public feels about the game and in this type of huge game, the public money matters almost as much as sharp money.

However, the bulk of the action for this game hasn’t even happened yet. 95% of the action taken on this game will happen over the weekend with about 60% of it coming Monday. It’s the biggest college football game of the year and will be bet accordingly as the largest wagered upon college game this season.

The Nov. 5 game that LSU won 9-6 in overtime at Tuscaloosa was the largest wagered college game of the regular season. In that matchup, Alabama missed four field goal attempts as a 5½-point favorite. At the time, Alabama was considered the highest rated team in the country in most power rating systems. Right now, most ratings have LSU and Alabama equal.

The total posted on the game is a strong 40 with not much wavering. It would be hard to expect another defensive gem like we saw in November, but in the back of everyone’s mind, we’re all wondering how anyone is going to score against those defenses.

“This could be a totally different type of game,” said Tide coach Nick Saban, who led LSU to a Sugar Bowl win at the Superdome after the 2003 season for a share of the national title. “There are so many good players on both sides of the ball for both teams. “There’s so much opportunity for this game to play out completely different and have a completely different flavor than the first game.”

Since that 9-6 game, LSU has reeled off four straight games where they scored 41 points or more, including beat downs of then No. 3 Arkansas and No. 14 Georgia in the SEC Championship games. Those last two games were the perfect example of how LSU wears teams down. The Tigers have outscored opponents 267-61 after halftime, including 35-0 against Georgia. They spotted Arkansas a 14-0 lead and then outscored them 41-3 the rest of the way.

LSU will be looking to knock off their fourth team ranked in the top-3 to become the first team to do so since Army in the 1940’s. When comparing the body of work against each others schedule, LSU has proved to be much more battle tested. Alabama’s best win came against the Razorbacks in September and lost at home to the only top-10 (LSU) they played against.

I think Saban is 100% that this game will be played out differently than the first. Sequels rarely turn out better than the original and I could easily see this game turning into a blow out in the same fashion LSU turned it on against Arkansas and Georgia.

One of the biggest keys here is that this game isn’t on a neutral field, but rather right in the middle of Bayou country. They may have evenly sold tickets for the game, but the entire city of New Orleans is going to make it seem like a home game for LSU. The Alabama players will quickly tell you this isn’t a neutral site as they get heckled all week from every corner of the French Quarter.

Once the tide turns in a game of this magnitude, where the kids are completely dejected on a national stage, it could get ugly.

Prediction: LSU 37, Alabama 13

. At www.aasiwins.com, you can find all of the Gaming Today’s, Micah Roberts’ free NCAAF winners and articles.