Identifying ‘value’ players in MLB is what handicapping is about by The Gaming Today’s Ted Sevransky

This major league baseball season isn’t quite so young anymore. We’re six weeks into the campaign, and already, like every year, we’ve got a bevy of misleading statistics.

My goal in this article is to identify a handful of starting pitchers that are already mispriced.

Handicapping is not about identifying good or bad teams – the standings do that. Many bettors, myself included, tend to avoid making many wagers on the very best or against the very worst ballclubs – those teams tend to be priced appropriately.

Instead, beating the modern betting marketplace is about identifying ‘value’ squads (in MLB, identifying ‘value’ pitchers) – both good and bad – that are mispriced in the short to medium term.

Last year, the three most profitable MLB teams to support were the San Diego Padres, Cincinnati Reds and Toronto Blue Jays. Only one of the three made the playoffs. None were considered ‘elite’ teams at any point in the campaign.

On the other end of the spectrum, St. Louis, Colorado, the LA Dodgers and the LA Angels all ranked as serious money losers despite each of those squads winning 80+ games. Those teams were all mediocre to pretty good, but all were expected to be better than they were, leading to substantial losses for their supporters.

It’s a similar story with starting pitchers. When we look at a list of the most profitable starters to support from 2010, we’re not looking at a list loaded with ultra-hyped aces. Among the top dozen 2010 starters in profits, we see Kris Medlen (Atlanta), Freddy Garcia (Chicago White Sox), Brett Myers (Houston), Brett Cecil (Toronto), Homer Bailey (Cincinnati), Brian Burres (Pittsburgh) and Kyle Davies (KC). That’s certainly not a who’s who of elite MLB starting pitchers!

At the bottom of the 2010 list, we see some surprising names. Zack Greinke (KC), Cliff Lee (during his stint with Texas), A.J. Burnett (NY Yankees), Roy Oswalt (while in Houston), Dan Haren (while in Arizona), and James Shields (Tampa Bay) all ranked in the bottom dozen. Each and every one of those top notch starters – most considered ‘aces’ – were significant money losers for their backers.

So far in 2011, the most profitable starters to support include Kyle McClellan (St Louis), Bruce Chen (KC), Kevin Correia (Pittsburgh), Carlos Zambrano (Chicago Cubs) and Justin Masterson (Cleveland), all ranked in the top six. None of those guys would have been on any ‘cappers “list of guys to bet on” entering 2011.

Similarly, at the bottom of the 2011 profit spectrum we’re looking at some legitimate aces. Chris Carpenter (St Louis), John Danks (Chicago White Sox) and Ubaldo Jimenez (Colorado) have cost their supporters more than any other hurlers. Justin Verlander (Detroit), Cliff Lee (Philadelphia) and Mat Latos (San Diego) – three additional ‘aces’ – rank just above that bottom trio, even after Verlander’s no hitter against Toronto this past weekend.

Clearly, it’s not about how good any given starting pitcher actually is. The key for success in MLB is identifying how appropriately that pitcher is being priced by the betting markets. What follows is a list of a four starters that have struggled early but offer great potential value in the weeks to come.

Next week, I’ll look at the other end of the equation – pitchers that have started strong, but are likely to decline as their sample size for 2011 grows. I’ll also take a look at some pitchers that have been brilliant or awful but are still mispriced by bettors due to current perception and recent history issues.

4 to buy low:
Daniel Hudson, D’backs

Hudson was a non-factor in his short tenure with the White Sox, but he made some noise down the stretch after his trade to Arizona last summer. Hudson went 7-1 with a 1.69 ERA in 11 late season starts with the D-backs. All 11 outings were “quality starts” – six innings or more; three earned runs or less. But Hudson struggled out of the gate in 2011, going 1-4 with a 5.64 ERA in April.

What was the problem? Nothing, but a classic bit of MLB randomness. Hudson’s peripheral numbers were rock solid – his strikeout ratio was up, his home run ratio was down and his velocity and location on both his fastball and his slider were just fine.

In May, Hudson has gone 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA, but his mediocre season long numbers and the lack of market respect for his team should offer ample opportunities to support him profitably in the weeks to come.

Madison Bumgarner, SF Giants

Bumgarner was a difference maker as a rookie last year, a big part of the equation as the Giants earned their first World Series title since 1954. San Francisco went 14-5 in his last 19 starts, including the postseason, where Bumgarner cemented his reputation as an up and comer with eight innings of shutout baseball against the Rangers in the World Series. Bumgarner finished the season with an ERA of 3.00, impressive numbers for a rookie.

Bumgarner struggled coming out of the gate in 2011: 0-4 with a 6.17 ERA and a .323 batting average against in five April starts. There were injury rumors, but the Giants organization and Bumgarner himself repeatedly denied those rumors. It looks as if those were accurate denials.

Bumgarner still hasn’t won a game, but his two May starts have been brilliant, allowing just a single earned run in 13 innings of work. He has as many strikeouts (12) as hits and walks combined in that span. As the Giants start to heat up, look for Bumgarner’s wins to pile up.

Erik Bedard, Mariners

When starter Erik Bedard arrived in Seattle in 2008, he was considered one of the best young starters in baseball with 28 wins and 392 strikeouts over the previous two seasons. Injuries derailed his progress – Bedard was able to throw only 164 innings over 30 starts in his previous three seasons in Seattle, thanks to three different shoulder surgeries.

But after missing the entire 2010 campaign recovering from his latest surgery, Bedard came back strong this spring training, making the team with ease after signing a one year, incentive laden contract. However, he struggled to find consistency and command in April, going 1-4 with a 5.96 ERA and seven home runs allowed in just 25.2 innings of work.

May has been another story entirely. While he hasn’t earned a win yet this month, Bedard has thrown back-to-back gems, allowing only three earned runs in 12 innings of work, with more strikeouts (12) than hits and walks combined (11). Those are the type of positive peripheral numbers offer solid potential returns supporting Bedard in the not-too-distant future.

Jordan Zimmerman, Nationals

Like Bedard, Zimmerman’s injury plagued history works in our favor now. Zimmerman was considered the Nats best prospect heading into the 2009 season, after leading the team in wins, strikeouts and ERA at the minor league level in ’08. But before he was able to find a rhythm at the big league level, Zimmerman underwent Tommy John surgery, a major setback to his progress.

Zimmerman made it back to the show by last August, but he only managed two quality starts in seven tries to close out the 2010 campaign. He spent most of April struggling again this year, finishing the month with a 1-4 record, a 4.55 ERA and only 14 strikeouts in 29.2 innings of work.

But we’ve seen back-to-back gems from Zimmerman here in May; notching quality starts and wins against the Giants and Marlins, striking out 10 batters in the process. No surprise here if Zimmerman turns into one of the undervalued pitchers that make us money on a consistent basis between now and September.



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