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Hawaii Bowl Preview by Matt Fargo
Hawaii Bowl – Aloha Stadium Honolulu, HI 8:00 PM ET
SMU Mustangs vs. Fresno St. Bulldogs (-12.5/59)
How SMU got here
SMU snuck into the postseason at 6-6 thanks to a win in its final game of the season at home against Tulsa as 5.5-point underdogs. The Mustangs started the season 1-3 and 2-4 but rallied to take four of their final six games to become bowl eligible. When SMU won, it won big and when it lost, it lost big as well as five of its six wins were by 17 points or more while four of its six losses were by 22 or more points. Which teams actually shows up in Hawaii? Chances are SMU will be pretty motivated as the seniors can hold their hat on being the only class in the history of the program to go to four straight bowl games and they could become the only teams to win a bowl game in consecutive years.
How Fresno St. got here
After finishing 4-9 in its final year in the WAC, Fresno St. made a statement in its first year in the MWC, going 9-3 overall including 7-1 in the conference to grab a share of the title. The Bulldogs started slow with a 2-2 record through four games but went on a 7-1 to end the season with the lone loss coming against Boise St. by 10 points on the road. The other losses were at Oregon, which was no surprise, and at Tulsa which came by just a single point. While they are back in the postseason after a year off, the Bulldogs should be pretty motivated to win as they have lost three straight bowl games so the seniors will want to go out winners. Fresno St. won its last five games by an average of 25.8 ppg.
Interesting Stat
Going back to their last 28 games, the Mustangs are 14-0 when scoring first and 0-14 when they do not.
Breakdown
The Bulldogs bring in one of the top offenses in the country as they are ranked 14th overall and 12th in scoring and they really lit it up during their closing five-game winning streak, averaging 47.2 ppg. They will be licking their chops facing the SMU stop unit which has not stopped many teams this year. The Mustangs have a middle of the road defense but while having success against mediocre teams, holding four teams to 13 points or less, they allowed an average of 38.1 ppg in the other eight games. The SMU offense made up for the defense in some cases but it still ranked 93rd in the country and scoring was only better because it is 12th in the nation in turnover margin. The Mustangs will face a Bulldogs defense ranked 19th overall and 27th in scoring.
Trending
SMU is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games away from home following a win as an underdog.
Fresno St. is a perfect 9-0 ATS as a favorite and 7-0 ATS after scoring 37 or more points this season
Come to www.aasiwins.com for all of Matt Fargo’s free NCAAF Bowl winners.
