We’re nearly 25% through the lockout shortened NBA season, and there’s no shortage of key personnel or game plan strategy changes. Let’s take a look at a handful of teams with potential to make us some money in the days and weeks ahead.
CLEVELAND
The Cavaliers returned home following a relatively successful road trip (3-4 SU, wins at Charlotte, Phoenix and Minnesota), with a miserable two game homestand. First, they lost by 10 to Golden State, then followed it up with a 39 point loss to the Bulls – worst home loss in franchise history.
And this came with Chicago star Derrick Rose missing the game! Then, the Cavs followed up that ugly blowout loss with a 28-point setback at Atlanta the following night. Obviously, there was a great deal of concern following those dismal showings.
Head coach Byron Scott: “We didn’t react to their physical play whatsoever— besides the whining…. We’re going to see what type of men we have.”
MINNESOTA
The Timberwolves have been a pointspread success story through the first month of the NBA season, notching a 10-5 ATS mark in their first 15 games. They went into the weekend ranked eleventh in points allowed (92.5) after finishing dead last a year ago (107.7 ppg).
That defensive improvement is particularly noticeable when you look at the T-wolves totals, cashing just four OVERS in their first 17 ballgames. And it’s also on full display when examining Minnesota’s straight up success. They’ve allowed less than 100 points in all seven of their wins this year, and 86 or less in five of those seven victories.
Minnesota’s two marketable stars All-Star forward Kevin Love and rookie point guard sensation Ricky Rubio are buying into a defensive mentality as well.
NEW JERSEY
The Nets 10-point win against Charlotte set an NBA record, but not in a good way. New Jersey finished the game with a lower field goal percentage than their opponent. That was the 17th consecutive game that the Nets were outshot by the team they were playing to open the season, breaking the Clippers record of 16 set in 1994. The Clips went 0-16 in those games, while the Nets managed to five wins.
Some of New Jersey’s shooting woes can be blamed on Avery Johnson’s change in offensive philosophy following the injury to starting center Brook Lopez. Instead of an inside-out offense that pounds the ball into the low post, Johnson made the executive decision that the Nets would be a three point shooting team.
That’s why the Nets lead the league in shot attempts from beyond the arc and a good portion of the reason why they ranks 29 out of 30 NBA teams in shooting percentage overall. Only Sacramento is worse.
The Nets suffered a blow last week when they announced that Damion James, a first rounder last year, would undergo season ending surgery on his foot. It’s the same foot that James hurt last year, causing him to miss 33 games of his rookie campaign.
At least the Nets are getting solid production from this year’s first rounder, MarShon Brooks. Brooks led the team in scoring in their win over the Bobcats, and has been a consistent source of energy as he’s moved into the starting lineup.
PORTLAND
The Trail Blazers looked like a legitimate championship contender for the first few weeks of the season, but their just concluded 2-4 road trip exposed some real roster weaknesses. More than anything else, however, it was slow starts and a lack of early energy that doomed the Blazers fortunes.
Head coach Nate McMillan, following an ugly loss at Detroit to close out the trip: “You can’t flip a switch in this league.” The Blazers lack of depth was also exposed in that loss at Detroit. Without Gerald Wallace in the lineup they lacked a wing with driving and spot up shooting ability.
Without any sort of a legitimate backup point guard on the roster, Ray Felton is wearing down already, playing too many minutes on a nightly basis.
Look for this team to make some moves to improve their depth before the trading deadline passes.
TORONTO
I have seen a lot of zone defense around the NBA so far this season, with savvy coaches using it in an effort to force teams to hit perimeter jump shots. Raptors first year head coach Dwane Casey – a Mavericks assistant last year — is credited with designing the zone defense that gave Miami fits in the NBA Finals, helping the Mavs cruise to the NBA title.
Casey has brought many of those same defensive philosophies with him to Toronto, where the Raptors have become UNDER machines: 11-5-1 in the first 17 games. Only two of Toronto’s 17 opponents has reached 100 points and the Raptors rank third in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage allowed after finishing No. 29 in that defensive statistical category last year.
Casey even made a baseball reference, saying that he’ll put the zone in for a few minutes, using it like an Eephus pitch – a ‘junk’ pitch that’s even slower than a changup, aimed at flustering the batter and keeping him off balance.
Look for the most athletic teams in the NBA – Miami and Oklahoma City – to face zone defenses. It’s a strategy aimed at keeping all those great athletes on the perimeter, instead of penetrating into the paint.
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