Careful betting lion’s share on Detroit in NFL football by The Gaming Today’s Ted Sevransky

Beware of false preseason results.

In 2010, the San Francisco 49ers were the ‘flavor of the month’ coming out of the preseason. The 49ers went 4-0 in August.

Bettors and pundits recognized the Niners were playing in the weakest division in the NFL – a truly ‘winnable’ NFC West. Head coach Mike Singletary was on the hot seat; in ‘must win now’ mode. Their defense looked loaded. Their offense, while clearly the weaker side of the football, still looked good enough to succeed.

Bettors and fans recognized “name” skill position players like Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook, Vernon Davis, Ted Ginn Jr. and Michael Crabtree. They expected a decent level of production.

San Francisco took a boatload of money in August. Bettors loaded up with wagers on San Fran going OVER their season win total in 2010, driving the number up to 8½ (-160) with a few 9’s popping up in the weeks before opening day. The Niners also took money to win the division, big favorites in the NFC West.

On opening day, San Francisco lost 31-6 as road favorites at rebuilding Seattle. They followed that with consecutive losses to the Saints, Chiefs, Falcons and Eagles. By the time the dust settled, the Niners finished 6-10 SU, 6-10 ATS. They escaped the NFC West cellar by beating an equally moribund Arizona in a meaningless Week 17 contest.

All the SF / OVER money was converted into ‘hold’ for the books.

Kansas City, Indianapolis and Chicago combined to go 1-11 SU in preseason last year. Their point spread record wasn’t any better at 1-10-1 ATS — if you shopped around and earned that push. Bettors seemed convinced that all three squads were poised for disappointing seasons.

Chicago was lined at eight wins, and money came on the UNDER. Indy was lined at 10½ or 11 wins and money came on the UNDER. KC was lined at 6½ wins and saw two way action at that price.

The Chiefs won the AFC West, going 5-1 ATS in their first six games to handsomely reward early season supporters. The Bears – not the Packers as selective memory haunts us – won the NFC North. They went 3-1 ATS as underdogs in the first five weeks of the season. The 2-14 Carolina Panthers were favored over Chicago in Week 5!

The Colts won the AFC South, losing at Houston in Week 1 and then proceeding to be a point spread machine all the way into November, suffering only one ATS defeat in their next seven games.

The point is: Do not overreact to preseason results, especially aggregate! Let me use St. Louis (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS this August) as example No. 1. Steve Spagnuolo’s squad faced Indy in Week 1 of the preseason. Evidenced by Indy’s truly dismal 5-25 SU, 8-21-1 ATS mark in their last 30 preseason contests, there was no surprise when the Rams won and covered that ballgame.

In Week 2, the Rams trailed their home game against Tennessee 16-7 at halftime. Their lone TD came on a busted coverage from the Titans on the very first play of the game, an 83 yard Brandon Gibson catch and run. Sam Bradford and the rest of the Rams first stringers played the full first half. They did not run a single offensive play in Titans territory. Meanwhile, Tennessee put together three long drives against the St. Louis defense. But Thaddeus Lewis and AJ Feeley played fairly well against the Titans backups after halftime and Josh Brown kicked the game winning field goal as time expired in the fourth quarter. St Louis got the SU win, but anyone who paid attention to the game gave credit to Tennessee, not St Louis, for their performance.

In Week 3, the Rams faced Kansas City, another team that (as described above) is not a squad with a history of caring about August wins and losses in the Todd Haley era. The Rams had a pair of long TD drives to open the game, then failed to move the ball for the rest of the half. Rams backers got the money because KC kicker Ryan Succop couldn’t convert a 21 yard chip shot field goal in the closing minutes.

In Week 4, when most coaches rest their starters, Coach Spagnuolo put his starters on the field for the entire first quarter, staking the Rams to an early 7-0 lead. They didn’t score again until after halftime, when it was a matchup of third stringers vs. third stringers.

So yes, St. Louis had a ‘good’ preseason. It couldn’t be more meaningless when it comes to predicting their potential regular season success or failure. They played the right teams at the right times and had the right second half rallies against the right third string defenders.

Which brings us this year’s ‘Flavor of the Month’, the Detroit Lions. Detroit’s not in the same situation as San Francisco was last year. Head coach Jim Schwartz isn’t on the hot seat like Singletary was in 2010. Detroit has a quarterback with upside (Matthew Stafford, if he can stay healthy), the antithesis of San Fran’s Alex Smith. They are clearly an improving team.

That being said, bettors have fallen in love with Detroit in a serious way. Money has poured in on the Lions OVER 7.5 wins, pushing the total up to 8 in several key locations. We’ve seen Detroit take a boatload of cash for their Week 1 matchup in the heat and humidity of Tampa – the same Bucs team that won 10 games last year, missing the playoffs only because of a tiebreaker with Green Bay.

The Lions are already sitting at pick’em in some spots for that Week 1 game vs. Tampa Bay. They’ve taken significant money to win the division, the NFC and even the Super Bowl. Bettors apparently haven’t noticed Detroit’s recent history.

 In 2008, the Lions went 4-0 SU, 3-0-1 ATS in preseason action, while outscoring their opponents by a combined margin of 80-32, the highest point differential in the league that year. They then proceeded to go 0-16 SU in the regular season, the worst team in modern NFL history.

In 2009, Detroit went 3-1 SU in preseason action. They followed that up with a 2-14 campaign, covering only four point spreads all year. Last year, again, we saw Detroit look good in exhibition season: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS. They were 2-10 by December, before a late season surge improved their record to a ‘respectable’ 6-10 finish.

Detroit is still a very flawed team in at least four areas.

• Their offensive line hasn’t proven that they can run block or keep injury prone Stafford upright.

• Their secondary lacks a single shutdown corner, a unit that has been vulnerable to the big play and the blown lead for the better part of the last decade.

• They’ve got major concerns on special teams, going with undrafted rookie free agent Ryan Donahue at punter after veteran Nick Harris became a salary cap casualty, and with 41 year old Jason Hanson coming off knee surgery as their kicker.

• Detroit really needed rookie second round running back Mikel Leshoure, a training camp injury casualty. They’ll enter the season without a power back to get tough yards between the tackles to convert those 3^rd and 1’s. .

I haven’t even mentioned Detroit’s schedule yet. They face nine opponents that won at least 10 games last year. That doesn’t even count two games against the Vikings, one against the Cowboys and one against the 49ers; all of whom should be improved from a season ago.

I’m not saying that Detroit won’t win nine games this year and be one of the ‘surprise’ teams from 2011 when we look back on the season next January. But the market for the Lions is white hot right now, and there’s absolutely no value supporting this team in Week 1 or on the future board anymore.

If you liked Detroit to go OVER its win total or to capture the division and didn’t bet it a month ago, you’ve missed your window of opportunity.

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