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Betting the Early Super Bowl Line by John Ryan
I wanted to present a purely statistical analysis of the remaining team’s probabilities of winning and advancing in the Divisional Round, Conference Championship, and Super Bowl. This is not an article about, who I like, but rather to take a look at where the remaining teams chances lie based on current situations, power ratings, and historical patterns.
First let’s look at the Vegas Odds. For the Super Bowl, whoever wins the anticipated showdown between the Broncos and Patriots will win. Denver is 11/4 and New England 7/2 to win the Super Bowl. The runner up will be the winner of the NFC showdown between the Packers and 49ers this weekend. Both are listed as 6/1 favorites to win the Super Bowl. Coincidentally, the Seahawks, who are on the road this week again on the East Coast to face the Falcons are both listed at 7/1 favorites. Baltimore and Houston are afterthoughts both listed at 18/1 favorites.
Based on these odds favoring an AFC team to win the Super Bowl it stands to reason that the early line for the Super Bowl shows the AFC favored by three points. There are some 2 ½ lines, but paying a hefty -130 vig. I do think making an early bet taking the AFC representative at -3 is a solid opportunity. I strongly believe that once the two opponents are decided, the line will be at minimum four and more likely six.
The reason for this is that the greatest upset potential is in the NFC with four teams that are near equals. Let’s not forget too, that Super Bowl winners have a top-10 scoring defense. This really doesn’t help in this year’s remaining teams. Seattle ranks best allowing 15.2 PPG, 49ers second allowing 17.1 PPG, Denver fourth 18.1 PPG, Atlanta fifth 18.7 PPG, Houston ninth 20.2 PPG, Green Bay 10th allowing 20.4 PPG, New England 11th 20.7 PPG, and Baltimore 12th 20.8 PPG.
The 49ers defense has given up 29.7 PPG over their last three games ranking 27th worst in the NFL. Green Bay is their opponent and has allowed 18.0 PPG over their last three games, but have allowed 24.5 PPG in their road games this season. That by itself makes for an ‘anything can happen scenario’.
I’ll mention another variable that I do believe is very meaningful. Peyton Manning is extremely poor in cold weather conditions. In games he has played in temps under 20 degrees he has thrown just 1 touchdown to seven interceptions. Of course, Manning has now had a full season with Denver, but just eight home games and none were even close to what the weather conditions will be this weekend. Food for thought to say the least before jumping all over Denver.
So, looking at the purely statistical projections, my work comes up with the following odds. The Patriots have the greatest probability of winning the Super Bowl. They have an 80% chance of winning this week over the Texans and a 50% probability of winning the AFC Championship and then a 35% chance of winning the Super Bowl. Denver has a 68% probability of winning this week and then a 35% chance of defeating the Patriots, and a 25% chance of winning the Super Bowl. Obviously, if Denver would win the AFC Championship, their odds of winning the Super Bowl would rise to nearly the level of the Patriots.
In the NFC, the 49ers have a 62% probability of defeating the Packers, 35% chance of winning the NFC Championship, and just 15% chance of winning the Super Bowl. The Packers, if they upset the 49ers, have a 38% chance of winning the NFC Championship, which is higher than the 49ers. Essentially, the reason is that the Packers would have greater momentum and a much better matchup than the 49ers against either the Seahawks or the Falcons.
As great as the Texans were for the first 12 games of the season, they have just a 4% chance of winning the Super Bowl and a 7% chance of winning the AFC Conference Championship. Moreover, the same can be said with similar projections for the Ravens, so the AFC is truly a two team race to the Super Bowl. From the stats database, it would be a monumental upset if both Denver and New England were not representing the AFC in the Super Bowl. In the NFC, any of the four teams have realistic chances to be the NFC representative. If, for example, a Seattle, or Green Bay makes it to the Super Bowl, the AFC will be favored by a whole lot more than the 2 ½ point spread. That fact, by itself. is why I like taking the early Super Bowl line at -3.
