Betting against the worst teams in college football by The Gaming Today’s Ted Sevransky

I’ve spent a considerable amount of time this summer writing about the BCS Conferences in college football. I have not yet, however, spent much time writing about the non-BCS leagues.

That drought ends here.

Obviously, the bigger name schools draw more media attention than the smaller conference squads. That means non-BCS conference schools, in general, have more potential to be point spread outliers – positive or negative.

The betting markets don’t follow these schools quite as closely and bettors are not forced to react quite as quickly with less monetary pressure influencing the numbers.

Lots of big name schools enjoyed strong ATS seasons last year, including Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Arkansas, Oklahoma State, North Carolina State and Arizona State. Those six programs all cashed at a 75% ATS clip or better in 2010.

On the other end of the spectrum, major conference schools like Rutgers, Vanderbilt, UCLA, Texas, Northwestern and Michigan all cashed at a 25% ATS clip or worse; among the biggest money losers among all of college football.

But when we’re looking back to examine who the nation’s very best or very worst programs are, the non-BCS leagues tend to stand out. Buffalo was the single worst point spread team in the country last year, cashing only two tickets in 12 tries. It’s a similar story on the other end of the spectrum – Hawaii led the way last year with a nation’s best 11-2 ATS record.

The betting marketplace changes from year to year; season to season. What worked in 2001 or 2006 is not likely to work in 2011. Systems, trends and angles all tend to fade over time as the betting markets catch up.

But there is one gambling adage that I learned in my very first year as a professional bettor here in Las Vegas back in 1998 and still holds true for colleges. “You’re not going to make money looking for spots to support very bad teams in college sports. Bet against bad teams.”

The numbers clearly show that old adage is still very true. Tulane finished in last place in the Conference USA’s Western division last year. Memphis finished last in the C-USA East. Both teams covered exactly four point spreads in their respective 12 game seasons; each ranking among the bottom 20 teams (out of 120 FBS squads) in terms of their pointspread success.

I already wrote about Buffalo’s ATS failures. The other teams at the bottom of the MAC last year – Akron, Bowling Green and Eastern Michigan – all finished at least two games under .500 ATS.

In the Mountain West, Wyoming, UNLV and New Mexico were the bottom feeders. All three of those teams finished at least two games under .500 ATS as well.

In the WAC, it was San Jose State, Utah State and New Mexico State at the bottom of the totem pole. That trio finished with a combined 14-23 ATS mark for the season, consistent money losers.

The only non-BCS conference where the bottom feeders showed any sign of ATS success came in the Sun Belt, where teams like Louisiana and Western Kentucky were net money winners. If you’ve been beating the Sun Belt on a regular basis in recent years, you deserve an enormous amount of credit, because it’s a league filled with more ‘static’ – random outcomes – than any other.

Don’t look back at last year and mull bets we didn’t make against these bottom feeders. Rather, identify as many of the very worst teams as possible before the season starts and look for good opportunities to fade them.

So which teams look like good ‘fades’ in 2011? Many of the same suspects!

Let’s start in Conference USA, where Memphis once again looks like a ‘bottom of the barrel’ type of squad. The Tigers have enjoyed only one winning ATS season in the last five years; 22-35-1 ATS during that span. Second year head coach Larry Porter runs a troubled program, relying heavily on malcontent transfers from BCS conference schools.

The Tigers don’t have particularly good facilities and are considered a ‘basketball school’ by many potential recruits. Their returning quarterback transferred in the offseason after Porter shook up his coaching staff and installed another new offense; one of a handful of key transfers heading out of town! Similar to last year, it’s hard to expect much ATS life from the Tigers down the stretch once another losing season is assured.

In the MAC, Akron and Eastern Michigan both stand out as likely bottom feeders once again. The Zips and Eagles have a grand total of one winning ATS season between them over the last five years; when the Zips went 6-5-1ATS back in 2007. Ron English (third year at Eastern) and Rob Ianello (second at Akron) are well underway with their rebuilding processes.

Unfortunately for both coaches, complete rebuilds are the norm, not the exception for these schools. And both schools are particularly weak in the trenches, bad news as the injuries and attrition start to build as the season progresses.

There’s another teardown/rebuild situation worthy of note here, right in my own backyard. UNLV has made a name as a basketball school, but their football program has lagged behind for decades. The Rebels are lined as a 2½ win team; facing one hurdle after the next in Bobby Hauck’s second season on the job.

UNLV has a grand total of one winning ATS season in the last nine years (7-5 ATS back in 2008); a truly woeful 39-64-1 ATS over that span. Hauck is emphasizing a major youth movement with 14 true frosh getting playing time last year. Their latest two-deep had 26 freshman, sophomores or JUCO transfers.

Under no pressure to win in 2011, it’s hard to expect any sort of a turnaround from Hauck and company for the upcoming campaign.

In the WAC, there’s still money to be made betting against perennial ‘fade material’ such as New Mexico State and San Jose State. With Boise State gone and Nevada, Hawaii and Fresno primed to join the Broncos in the Mountain West next year, the WAC keeps getting weaker while other conferences improve.

This conference is adding the likes of Texas State, Denver and Texas-San Antonio into the mix next year; giving us some potential new teams to fade in 2012. For this year, we’ll just have to fade the usual suspects; the Aggies and Spartans.

New Mexico State is 26-41-1 ATS since the start of the Hal Mumme era back in 2005, and that includes their stellar 7-3 ATS campaign in ’06. The high point of the Dewayne Walker era (now in its third year) has been the Aggies back-to-back wins over New Mexico during a stretch where the Lobos were 2-22 SU.

Of the Aggies last 19 losses, 17 have come by 17+, non-competitive affairs. There’s little reason to expect dramatic improvement in 2011.

San Jose’s football program has been hanging on the brink of complete collapse for the better part of the last decade. This team was down to 43 healthy scholarship players by their season finale last year, an overtime loss to Idaho. Some 18 true frosh saw playing time in head coach Mike MacIntyre’s first season.

It’s hard to picture the Spartans scoring enough points to cover spreads on a regular basis this fall.

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