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Six Pack of Preferences for MLB Baseball Totals by The Gaming Today’s Ted Sevransky
Let’s get right to it. I’m going to offer six reasons why I love betting MLB totals.
No expensive pitchers
Charlie Morton was arguably the worst starting pitcher in the major leagues last year. The Pirates went 2-15 in games that Morton started, and his 7.57 ERA was no fluke. The linesmakers aren’t idiots. The Pirates were a substantial underdog just about every time Morton took the mound, so betting against him would require the side bettor to lay a big price. But you didn’t have to lay more than -110 or -115 betting Morton OVER the total. You would have cashed repeatedly.
Similarly, the linesmakers consistently install high prices on the favorite when ‘A’ list starters take the hill. Why lay a big price to support Roy Halladay of the Phillies or Felix Hernandez of the Mariners when you can bet the UNDER at -110, assuming much less risk with the same potential reward?
No wiggle room
Totals generally range between a low of 7 and a high of 11½, with the occasional 6½ or 12. Even when two hot hitting teams face mediocre starters, the total won’t see 14.
Similarly, when two cold teams face dominant starters, the total won’t dip to 5. It’s very difficult for the linesmakers to compensate enough within the limited confines of the standard range of totals. The books don’t hesitate to price a dominant favorite at -300 or higher, but they don’t have that same ability to adjust when setting baseball totals.
Books less confident
Each sports book sets limits on the amount that can be bet on any particular wager. The casual bettor rarely runs into the sportsbook limits, normally several thousand dollars or more on side wagers. But the bookmakers do not set high limits like that for baseball totals, and many sports books are reluctant to take wagers above $500 or $1,000.
Part of the reason stems from the issues noted above, in terms of “wiggle room.” Part is that the books get very little “square” money on MLB totals. That means that the books don’t get balanced action on the majority of baseball totals that they hang. The low limits on totals are due to lines makers lacking confidence that their numbers are good enough to withstand high stakes wagers from informed bettors.
Streaks go unnoticed
When any baseball team wins eight straight games, they’ll be catapulted to the lead story on ESPN, and noted by bettors and linesmakers rather quickly. The hot team might have been priced as a -140 favorite in their first game of the streak, but with the same two pitchers following eight straight wins may see a line closer to -200 because of the added public money backing the favorite.
But the general public doesn’t notice OVER / UNDER streaks, nor do the national media. No pundit in the country could tell you that Arizona was the single strongest OVER team in baseball in 2010, nor could any TV talking head say Baltimore was the top UNDER wager.
Did you know that Joe Blanton of the Phillies and Kevin Correia of the Padres were the top starting pitchers for OVERS last year or that Livan Hernandez of the Nationals and Jered Weaver of the Angels were the top UNDER starters? This “streak” strategy works for both pitchers and teams.
These type of streaks tend to feed upon themselves, extending onwards indefinitely. A few years back, the Dodgers went UNDER 99 times, but OVER only 53. The Red Sox went OVER 95 times with only 63 UNDER.
I know a handicapper who took a three week vacation that summer, betting just the Dodgers UNDER and Red Sox OVER every game while he was gone. By the time he returned to his daily ‘capping, he was up more than 15 units.
And this makes perfect sense. Teams who are struggling at the plate tend to press, lose confidence, and get out of their normal rhythm. Teams that are hitting well gain confidence, are more selective with their swinging, and generally have better at bats.
Likewise, teams that are getting good starting pitching don’t overuse their bullpens, leaving the pens much fresher and better than the teams that are getting lousy starting pitching, who are forced to rely on overused and tired bullpens. Linesmakers can’t adjust to the run over UNDERS or OVERS.
Half right often wins
Let’s say Wandy Rodriguez of the Astros and Josh Johnson of the Marlins face one another in Florida, with a 7½. With two of the top pitchers in the NL on the mound, it’s easy to make a case for the UNDER. But even if one gets hit hard, a 6-1 final score going UNDER is still well within the range of possibility.
It’s a similar story with weaker pitchers. If Nelson Figueroa takes the hill for the Astros against the Marlins Chris Volstad, the total would probably 9½ or 10. OVER bettors can cash their tickets even if Volstad pitches a rare gem, because Figueroa could still get rocked. An 8-3 final is certainly not out of reach.
Umps more relevant
The home plate ump has a huge impact on the game, more so than any other referee in any major sport. And you can easily find out which ump is slated to be behind the plate for any given game. There’s no question that different umpires have different strike zones.
Umps that have a slightly wider strike zone allow the pitchers to get ahead in the count more often. Ones with a tighter strike zone force pitchers behind in the count on a consistent basis. Pitchers get rattled when close calls at the plate don’t go their way, while they gain confidence when they are getting those close calls.
Tim Welke is a well known OVER umpire – 37-24 in the past two seasons. Mike Reilly is 38-24 and Jim Reynolds is 36-21 during that same time frame. Doug Eddings has UNDERS every year since 2004, including a 20-10 mark last season. The wiseguys hammer just about every John Hirschbeck game UNDER. His 27 year track record of consistent UNDERS is truly remarkable.
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