Joseph D'Amico

NFL Preseason Betting Tips by Jim Feist

It may be HOT and many folks are still on  vacation, but August kicks off the best time of the sports betting  calendar: Football season! Competition on the field won’t be as intense  as September, of course, as wins aren’t as important as evaluating young  talent and trying to keep players healthy. However, there will be  betting lines available on preseason pro action and it’s possible to  cash winning tickets. Here are some things to keep in mind when watching  preseason football as we start Week 2.

Coaching Strategy

An  understanding of what coaches are trying to accomplish each week in  August is essential. With four preseason games to play, NFL coaches will  typically go with starters one quarter or less in the first August  game, one quarter-plus in second game, the first half and into the third  quarter in the third game, and then very little in the fourth game.  Keeping starters healthy while getting them some competition against the  opponents’ first stringers are the obvious reasons.

Coaches will  often use “vanilla” game plans, working on short passes and running  plays. This is why preseason totals are lower than the regular season.  For example, in the first preseason game last season the high-powered  Saints played the Cardinals and the total was 34. It sailed under in a  17-10 New Orleans win with 4 turnovers as the teams combined to go  9-of-28 on third down. If the game had been during the regular season,  the total would have been closer to 44. In fact, when the Saints did  open the regular season the total was 50 against Washington and their  lowest total all year was 49. In the third preseason game, starters are  projected to play the most. Working on basic plays and keeping things  simple are often the case for the first two weeks of preseason.

Home Field

While home field is a big edge when games count in the post and regular  seasons, home field can be less important in preseason, especially in  Week 4. It’s been a roller coaster the last few preseasons. Last season  the home team was a sizzling 14-2 SU at home in Week 4, though just 9-7  ATS. Two years ago the home team was 7-9 SU, 6-10 ATS in Week 4. The  previous two years the home team actually did well, going 22-13 SU and  20-11-1 ATS in Week 4, but that was unusual. Notice that the four years  prior to that the visiting team went 29-17-1 ATS in Week 4 of the  preseason.

Newspapers

Keeping tabs daily on what local  beat writers are commenting on is important. Many times coaches will  hint at potential strategy, such as “We’re going to open up the passing  game a bit in the first half this week. Or, “Our starters will play two  series just to get their feet wet.” These tidbits are key and a  successful sports bettor knows how to evaluate coaching comments,  injuries, and how strategy changes may influence the side and total.

A  few years ago in a preseason game, the Atlanta Falcons coach was  furious with his team’s play the week before and announced that the  starters would play the entire three quarters. The line jumped from  Atlanta as a 2-point favorite all the way to 5, and went off at 6 by  kickoff. Sharp bettors wasted no time in hammering the Falcons, who won  and covered the game easily, all because of the extensive game plan (and  anger) revealed by the coach.

Quarterback Play

Quarterback  is the single most important position on the football field. Think of  the Super Bowl matchups the last decade: How many below average QBs have  gotten their team to the big game? The Ravens in 2000 with Trent Dilfer  and Chicago’s Rex Grossman. QB play is essential and a key this time of  year as starters don’t play the whole game. When wagering on a favorite  in preseason, it’s important to carefully evaluate the No. 2 and 3 QBs  as they often play as much as the starter or more. A team with a great  starter expected to play just two series, with a rookie or poor backup  QBs playing most of the game can be at a disadvantage.

Coaches

Coaching is such an important part of football, as so many players need  to be organized and taught various roles each week. Some coaches are  more demanding in preseason, while others are more laid back. Notice  that Bill Belichick is 37-28 SU, 35-27-1 ATS all time in preseason.  Washington won the division last year and is 6-2 SU/ATS in preseason the  last two years under Coach Mike Shanahan. That makes his August record  49-28 SU, 43-29-2 ATS.

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