Joseph D'Amico

Betting Baseball Second Half Surges by Jim Feist

The first half of the 2013 baseball season is in the books. There were surprising winners, such as the Royals, Diamondbacks and Pirates, a lack of hitting league-wide again, and some surprises such as the high payroll Dodgers and Angels stumbling. With the surprises out of the way, here’s a look at some teams that might be active at the trading deadline and primed to make a second half surge.

Indians

First-year manager Terry Francona is getting the most out of the young Indians. The offense has been great, 6th in baseball in runs scored and on-base percentage, tops in slugging behind 1B Mark Reynolds and catcher Carlos Santana. Now, about that pitching…  Zach McAllister and submariner Justin Masterson have been fine, but they could use some starting depth or the wear and tear on the pen may take a toll down the stretch. Would you deal a big bat for an arm or two?

Tigers

Detroit certainly looks like a team that will have a big second half, with the best run differential in the American League. This pitching staff has been dynamite, third in team ERA in baseball. They have a trio of strikeout aces in Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez, plus Doug Fister is a control specialist who doesn’t walk anyone and eats innings. The offense is equally good with speed atop the order in centerfielder Austin Jackson and plenty of punch to drive him in with Miguel Cabrera, Torri Hunter, Prince Fielder and Victor Martinez. Remember, Martinez missed all of last season with an injury, so this lineup is even better than last summer, top five in runs, batting average, OBP and slugging. Many teams might be thinking about shopping but the Tigers will be focused on staying healthy for October.

Giants

The NL West is competitive again, but how can you overlook a squad that has won two of the last three World Series? Most impressive is the balanced offense, which is top ten in runs scored and batting average. A year ago they were ranked 12th in runs and 5th in batting before they crept up on a lot of people and won another October crown.

There are four reasons to believe the Giants won’t go away, though: Lincecum, Cain, Zito and Bumgarner. San Francisco has the top foursome in the NL which keeps away losing skids. Zito seems to be drinking from the fountain of youth, a 11 years removed from his 23-5 Cy Young season but having a terrific year. Oddly, ace Matt Cain is the one who has struggled, so if they get him turn around the Giants should roll to another division title.

Angels

Should we give up on the overpaid bunch from Anaheim? Everything went wrong for Mike Scioscia’s team in the first half, with their big bats (Pujols, Hamilton) more like pop guns. The biggest problem, though, was the injury to ace pitcher Jered Weaver early, which threw the staff out of whack and forced Scioscia to juggle arms on a taxed bullpen.  But there’s no ignoring the talent, speed and power on this lineup, one that could get hot as the summer heats up. They could be in the market for a quality starter alongside Weaver.

Rockies

Colorado has been torching opposing pitching staffs with a powerhouse offense that is top five in runs, batting average, slugging and on-base percentage. The pitching has a solid pair of arms in 25-year old Jhoulys Chacin and Jorge Del La Rosa. But the rest of the staff has been mostly awful, so they will be in the market for some arms for the starting rotation and bullpen if they want to make a second half surge. And don’t forget Chacin has a losing record in each of the last two years (11-14, 3-5) while De La Rosa only pitched 10 innings last season.

Rays

In the wide open AL East the Rays are a team no one wants to face down the stretch. This young rotation of David Price, Wade Davis, Alex Cobb and Jeremy Hellickson is as good as any out there. They have led the league in team ERA for much of the first half. The only weak spot would be closer, where Fernando Rodney has been shaky. The offense has been surprisingly good and is in the top five in steals, so they can attack opponents in a variety of ways. Would you like to face that staff in October? If they can get there.

 

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