Joseph D'Amico

Top 10 NCAA Tournament Strategies Feature No Surprises by The Gaming Todays Ted Sevransky

 

My Top 10 NCAA tournament strategies feature no surprises. Veteran bettors know this stuff already, but it never hurts to think about these concepts again before the Big Dance begins.

1) Fade teams that looked great last weekend.

There’s no such thing as carrying over momentum from conference tournament weekend to the Big Dance. Of the Top 16 teams (4 from each region) only 6 (Ohio State, Kentucky, Duke, UConn, San Diego State, and Kansas) won their conference tournaments. Many of the top contenders for the national title dropped out early; focusing on this coming weekend. Teams going all out to secure a bid or win their conference title but came up short (Penn State, Florida and Louisville), are particularly strong on the ‘fade’ list

2) Winning office pool requires luck.

When filling out brackets, the single most important thing is to pick the eventual champion correctly, since the final game is weighted the most. 18 of the past 21 national championships have been won by 1 or 2 seeds. In the offshore betting marketplace, the grouping of the four 1 seeds is about a 3-2 favorite to win the national title. Four straight years has produced a champion 1 seed.

Many office pool players work too much on picking the early round upsets. I always pick at least two 1 seeds to make the Final Four. I never call for a 1 seed to get upset before the Sweet 16 round at the earliest. Remember, the bigger the pool that you are in, the more chances you’ll need to take. Pick upsets to build big points on the second weekend of the tournament.

3) Be aware of home court advantages.

While the NCAA tournament is purportedly played on neutral floors, the selection committee gives relatively friendly trips to a handful of teams. Florida, Old Dominion, North Carolina, Duke, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Texas and Kansas will all enjoy some sort of a home court advantage in the first weekend of the tourney this year. Meanwhile teams like USC, UCLA, St John’s, Washington and Boston University all face tough east-to-west or west-to-east travel situations.

4) Free throws cover point spreads.

When one team gets to the free throw line far more often than their opponents, it means that they play fundamentally sound defense, aggressively on offense, and have the lead in the final minute more often than not. Remember, an eight point favorite that is winning by two can cover the spread in the final 30 seconds of the game if they are capable of hitting their free throws.

5) Throw out the records that don’t matter.

Look at how teams performed against upper echelon foes away from home for a clearer indicator of their potential. You’ll get a better read on a team’s true capabilities when examining their road games in conference play and their non-conference road and neutral site contests than you will by looking at their conference tournament performance this past weekend.

 6) Defense, defense, defense.

While a flashy offense looks great, defense wins championships. Shooting percentage allowed and assist-to-turnover ratio allowed are two key stats, a far better indicator of defensive intensity than points per game allowed. TV talking heads often fail to mention that points per game allowed is about pace, not defensive acumen. Look for underdogs that play championship level defense in an effort to hang tough with a superior team, like Northern Iowa did in the first two rounds last year.

7) Ride the hot, fade the cold.

Pay attention to ATS streaks, particularly early in the tournament. It’s not about how good a team actually is; it’s about how good a team actually is compared to the market value as determined by the point spread.

Teams that were overvalued and undervalued heading into the tournament tend to stay that way. Hot teams include Michigan (12-1 ATS L13), George Mason (15-3 ATS L18), Richmond (7-0 L7), St Peter’s (18-5 ATS L23), Oakland University (13-4 ATS L17), Louisville (7-1 ATS L8) and Indiana State (8-2 ATS L10).

he NCAA tournament team with the single worst pointspread record in the field is Michigan State (11-20 ATS), with VCU, Tennessee, Villanova, Kansas State and West Virginia all joining the Spartans as overvalued commodities,

8) Inside/Outside

The very best teams have quality play on the perimeter with their guards and in the low post with big men. Strong guard play results in fewer turnovers and extra assists – more easy buckets and less wasted possessions. Junior and senior leadership in the backcourt is worth a fortune in this tournament.

Rebounding differential is also crucial to examine. The better rebounding teams tend to dominate the paint, getting easy looks while their opponents are relegated to shooting jumpers from the outside. The Big Dance is loaded with positive rebounding margin squads.

Old Dominion, Pittsburgh, Kansas, Morehead State, Utah State, North Carolina, Kansas State, Texas, San Diego State, Texas A&M, Gonzaga and Michigan State all finished the season in the Top 20 nationally in this key statistical area.

9) Ignore Seeding

Pointspreads matter, not seeding. With one exception. When you are filling out brackets, seeding matters because it will show you how tough a road a team has to reach the Final Four. It’s much easier to reach the Final Four as a 1 seed than a 6. When an 11 seed is a favorite against the 6, the betting markets are telling you all you need to know. Oddsmakers are sharper –much sharper – then the NCAA tournament selection committee.

10) Follow the lead of the pros.

In the NCAA tournament, many amateurs enter the betting world for the first time all season. These square bettors tend to back favorites and overlook schools from smaller conferences. Professional bettors are far more knowledgeable about smaller conferences and that gives them an edge when analyzing on-court match-ups. If you need help, don’t be afraid to rely on the advice of the pros at Covers.com.

 You can get all your NCAAB FREE articles and information right here at www.aasiwins.com.

Copyright 2010 All American Sports, All Rights Reserved.                                                                                                                                                             
Privacy Policy: aasiwins.com will never sell, rent or share your email address.
Website Maintained by Truly Unique - Custom Website Design