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BCS Showdown: No. 1 vs. No. 2! by Jim Feist
Happy New Year! After recovering from the weekend’s New Year festivities, we glide through the end of the bowl season. A few more bowls are appetizers for the tune-up that is the January 9 Alabama/LSU rematch for all the marbles.
Outback Bowl (Tues., Jan. 1): A great matchup as South Carolina battles Michigan in Tampa, Fl. South Carolina (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) hasn’t lost since October, back-to-back defeats to LSU (23-21) and Florida (44-11). The offense is balanced, but has problems as RBs Kenny Miles and Mike Davis are filling in for injured tailback Marcus Lattimore (662 yards), while junior QB Connor Shaw (15 TDs, 7 INTs) is battling an ankle injury. He or QB Dylan Thompson (8 TDs, 2 INTs) will be throwing to speedy WRs Bruce Ellington and Ace Sanders. The under is 4-0 in the Gamecocks last four Bowl games.
The defense is loaded under first-year DC Lorenzo Ward, tops in the SEC with 40 sacks led by Jadeveon Clowney (13 sacks). The Gamecocks are fourth in the SEC and 13th overall in scoring defense, allowing opponents a little over 17.4 points per game. Michigan (8-4) also has a powerhouse defense (18.8 ppg allowed), while the offense is run-first with 187.3 yards per game behind QBs Denard Robinson (1,166 yards rushing) and Devin Gardner (8 TDs, 4 INTs). Gardner started the season at receiver, but he moved to quarterback after Robinson’s elbow injury.
The Wolverines are 7-21-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 10-4 in the Gamecocks last 14 vs. a team with a winning record, while Michigan is 12-5 under the total against a team with a winning record.
Sugar Bowl (Wed., Jan 2): Louisville head coach Charlie Strong faces the Florida team he used to be defensive coordinator at. Several of the Florida seniors were recruited by Strong, especially the defensive players. Louisville (10-2) gets it done with defense (23.8 ppg allowed) and a passing offense behind sophomore QB Teddy Bridgewater (25 TDs, 7 INTs) ranked 24th in the nation with 298.6 yards passing per contest. They are100th in rushing and won’t be able to run on this Florida D-line. After a 9-0 start Louisville has lost 2 of 3 to Syracuse (45-26) and UConn (23-20 in triple OT). The Cardinals are 35-17 ATS in non-conference games.
No.3 Florida (11-1) got here with defense for Coach Will Muschamp, allowing 12.9 ppg (third in the nation) and lost only to Georgia, 17-9. They are predictable on offense averaging 194 yards rushing behind senior RB Mike Gillislee (1,104 yds) and running QB Jeff Driskel, ranked 118th in the nation in passing. The Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games, 22-9 ATS in non-conference games. They are also on a 9-4 run under the total.
Fiesta Bowl (Thurs., Jan., 3): The all-running teams as No. 4 Oregon battles No. 5 Kansas State. Oregon (11-1) is no ordinary offense under Chip Kelly, spreading the field, running the no-huddle and burning up defenses. Oregon is No. 2 in the nation in points (50.8 ppg), with 226.8 yards passing and 323 yards rushing per contest (No. 3 in the nation). Freshman QB Marcus Mariota (30 TDs, 6 INTs) was as good as advertised along with senior RB Kenjon Barner (1,624 yards, 6.5 ypc) as they wear down defenses. The Ducks are on a 37-18 run over the total!
Kansas State (11-1 SU, 9-2 ATS) is not flashy, with a ground game carrying the offense (40.7 points, 199 yards rushing), as the poor passing game is 86th in the nation behind 6-foot-5 senior QB Collin Klein (15 TDs, 7 INTs, 890 yards rushing) along with 5-7 junior RB John Hubert (892 yards, 5.2 ypc). The defense was outstanding, holding Oklahoma to 19 points and West Virginia to 14, before a 52-24 late season loss to Baylor. The Wildcats are on an 18-7-1 ATS run, though 10-21 ATS in non-conference games.
BCS Championship Game (Mon., Jan., 7): A rematch of the epic 1974 thriller won by underdog Notre Dame, 24-23, for the national title. The SEC has won the last 6 national titles and looks for another in Sun Life Stadium in Miami. Defense is the story, with Bama No. 2 in points allowed (10.7) and Notre Dame No. 1 (10.3). A year ago Alabama ranked No. 1 in points allowed and shut down the No. 2 defense in the nation, LSU, 21-0.
Notre Dame has a stocked defense, but an erratic offense for Coach Brian Kelly, who prefers the no-huddle but had to scale back with sophomore quarterback Everett Golson (11 TDs, 5 INTs). RBs Theo Riddick (880) and Cierre Wood (740) anchor a ground attack that is 28th with 202.5 yards per game. Notre Dame is 10-2 under the total and on a 36-17-2 run under the total.
Alabama (11-1) is similar with the ground game carrying the offense behind junior RB Eddie Lacy (1,182 yds, 6.4 ypc) and freshman T.J. Yeldon (1,000, 6.5 ypc) with junior QB A.J. McCarron (26 TDs, 3 INTs). They lost only to Texas A&M (29-24) allowing 418 yards, though LSU put up 435 yards (296 passing) and had them on the ropes. The Crimson Tide is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games on grass and the over is 5-1 in their last six bowl games.
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