Joseph D'Amico

NFL Week 4 in Review by John Ryan

Another very exciting and entertaining week in the NFL. Although my top rated 25* Titan plays went 1-1-1 ATS, I am still 6-2-1 ATS on the season including my 30* Game of the Year Winner on Jacksonville.

I pushed Sunday Night with the Giants in a rather agonizing defeat. I felt very confident with the way Manning was executing in the second half until the ill-timed interception deep in Eagles territory. I was correct in playing the Carolina Panthers, who nearly knocked off the undefeated Falcons and I was dead wrong thinking that Detroit would blow out Minnesota.

I have started this weekly column for the purposes of reviewing my plays that were released and give a quick evaluation of them and then to provide an update on a strong handicapping statistic called “Yards-Per-Point”.

Last week, Atlanta was the top-ranked team in the NFL posting an 11.0 yards per-point ratio. This simply means that it takes only 11.0 yards to put a point on the scoreboard on average. Even though they had a wild game against Carolina, their stat rose to an 11.8 reading. This is still exceptional, but Houston had a huge game against Tennessee and lowered their ratio to 11.8 as well. Chicago also is at 11.8 measure, but has yet to play their Monday night game against Dallas.

In their win Sunday, Houston needed only 7.8 yards to score one point on average and that is one of the lowest readings I have seen for one game in several seasons. Their performance will undoubtedly cause overcrowding on their fan bandwagon and will significantly inflate this week’s line. in fact, they will be on the road facing the New York Jets, who were positively humiliated by the San Francisco 49ers 34-0 Sunday. The Texans are installed as 7 1/2 point favorites and I would not be surprised to see this line move to nine later this week.

The Jets are a terrible team, but as the saying goes ‘On any given Sunday’ one team can defeat any other, especially in this year of extreme parity. With that said, we have a tremendous combination where the public will have completely given up on the Jets and will back the Houston strongly. This opens the window for one of my contrarian plays.

If we find that the flow of public wagering exceeds 75% on one side than that is a reflection of irrational exuberance and expectations. Of course, there is a mountain of other tools I use to determine the final play and size of the play, but often times this is an excellent starting point.

The Jets rank 15th in the NFL posting a 14.0 yards-per-point measure so they are able to run the offense at times. Consistency and just plain discipline is missing from this team. Rex Ryan gave the team two days off since they are playing on Monday night instead of Sunday and I believe this extra time to rest will benefit them greatly for the game ahead. Let’s keep an eye on this game and see how the line moves throughout the week.

Philadelphia Eagles After four weeks of play, i can get a good grip on where teams stand and whether they are true contenders for the playoffs. The Eagles, however, are not one of them. I have no clue what this team is capable of accomplishing. Their offensive line is horrid, especially in pass blocking. In the win over New York Sunday night, it was the Giants defensive ends that failed to maintain gap and perimeter discipline that allowed the Eagles offense to exploit the perimeter for significant plays. It was not necessarily Michael Vick or the offensive unit that won that game.

Moreover, they still rank dead last in the NFL with a 25.3 yards per point ratio. I don’t need to explain how poor that reading truly is when I have already shown you the top-three teams and their readings. On three separate occasions last night, the one being first-and-goal from the three-yard line, the Eagles failed to score a touchdown. It nearly cost them the game and the play calling in all three of these situations was sickening cautious.

Philadelphia is at Pittsburgh this Sunday and are installed as 3 ½ point dogs. They then will have two straight home games against Detroit and Atlanta and then take to the road to face Saints, who are certainly the best 0-4 team in recent memory. They then have date with the Dallas Cowboys at home followed by their first experience playing the Redskins with RG3 under center. The point is the easy part of the season is done and over with for the Philadelphia Eagles. They have a very tough road ahead of them and once they have completed at least the next four games will i be honestly be able to get a hold of where this team is as compared to other winning record teams currently established.

Visit www.aasiwins.com for all of John Ryan’s FREE NFL winners and articles.

 

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