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MLB Totals: Weathering the Storm by Bryan Leonard
When analyzing baseball totals, weather can be even more important than stats and starting pitchers. Last baseball season saw terrible weather in the northeast, with many rain outs. One of those contests the Tigers and Red Sox played a game at Fenway where the weather was cold, drizzly and the wind was blowing in. Final score: 1-0. On the same night, a little further south, it was cool in Baltimore as the New York Yankees survived a very scary moment, a blown save by Mariano Rivera and staggered through 10 straight scoreless innings before pulling away to another victory over the Baltimore Orioles.
Last week the light hitting Twins went to Chicago to play the White Sox, but their bats awoke in an 11-8 pounding. The difference? Warm weather in Chicago, 82 degrees, and the wind blowing out 17 MPH certainly helped the hitters and gave the pitchers fits. The Minnesota staff threw 163 pitches, the White Soc 175!
A few years ago a similar thing happened when the Red Sox and Yankees squared off again, with long pre-game festivities as the Sox received their World Series championship rings. It was significant because the previous time they had played a home opener as the defending champs was in April of 1919, also against the Yankees, by coincidence. What was lost in all the pomp and circumstance was the weather.
Sure, it was a nice April day in Fenway, but did you notice anything else about the weather? It was gusty. In fact, the wind was blowing in from center field between 10-16 miles per hour. Sports bettors pay extra attention to aspects like this. Those who place wagers on baseball games need to be part meteorologist and take an interest in what the weather conditions are. Notice that the Yankees/Red Sox game ended up sailing under the total in an 8-1 Boston win. It certainly helped the pitchers that the wind was blowing in, especially knuckeballer Tim Wakefield.
Oddsmakers usually do take into account weather conditions when making totals. There are times when a Wrigley Field total is 8-9 when the wind is blowing in or conditions are normal, and other times if the wind is blowing out you’ll see the total jump to 12, 13 or even 14.
Wrigley is a small, hitter-friendly park and wind conditions in Chicago (the windy city) can play an important role in runs scored and the total. I used to go to Municipal Stadium in Cleveland and if the wind conditions were extreme with respect to the total, I wouldn’t hesitate to get a wager down on the total based on what I observed. We can’t attend every game to check the weather/wind conditions, of course, but you can utilize the Internet or various sports betting information web sites to find out wind conditions.
On the same day the Yankees and Red Sox played, the Rangers and Angels played in Texas with a total of 10. Yet, the wind conditions were gusty, 12-17 MPH this time blowing out to center and right. The Angels won 7-6 in a game that sailed over the total by the top of the 8th inning. It’s always nice to have a winning ticket in your hand even before the game is over! Checking weather conditions is a must for serious bettors, especially when playing totals.
Come to www.aasiwins.com for all of Bryan Leonard’s FREE MLB winners and articles.
