NBA injuries spreads ‘Linsanity’ in this condensed season by Ted Sevransky

NBA injuries are enough to drive even the savviest of NBA bettors bonkers. In this lockout shortened, condensed season, the nightly list of injuries could fill out an All Star team.

I’d take my chances with a roster composed of Derrick Rose, Eric Gordon, Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Kyrie Irving, Amare Stoudamire, Danilo Gallinari, Anderson Varejao, DJ Augustin, Zack Randolph, Andrew Bogut and Al Horford – all of whom were out of action this past weekend –against the Eastern or Western Conference All Stars.

The NBA betting markets are overwhelmed with injury information on a nightly basis. Some of that information is important, but most of it isn’t, just random static that confuses many bettors while causing the markets to make ridiculous knee-jerk reactions.

The Knicks are my “prime example” team for this article, because no team makes the case that injury info should NOT be affecting pointspreads as much as they actually do better than Mike D’Antoni’s squad.

New York’s Carmelo Anthony has been battling a series of nagging injuries all year: first his ankle, then his wrist, and now his groin. ’Melo earned a starting spot on the All Star team, but his own team seems to be better without him, much like his last team, the Denver Nuggets!

From January 16th through the first week of February, Anthony started and finished ten games. The Knicks went 3-7 SU in those games, and the three teams they beat were all bottom feeders; Charlotte, Detroit and New Jersey, arguably the three worst teams in the league.

When ’Melo hurt his groin, all of a sudden, the Knicks started to win and they haven’t stopped: 4-0 SU and ATS since Anthony went down in the first quarter against Utah last week. How much is ’Melo REALLY worth ATS? The results show that he’s worth absolutely nothing.

’Melo’s teammate, Amare Stoudamire suffered a tragedy when his brother died suddenly in a car accident and he left the team for the same four game span that Anthony missed. New York split a pair of games back around New Year’s when Stoudamire sat with a bad ankle. In their latest stint without him, they’ve gone 4-0 SU and ATS.

We’re talking about a team playing WITHOUT their two marque superstars, and anyone who’s watched Knick basketball this year would tell you in an instant, that they’ve been a SUBSTANTIALLY better team without those two stars on the floor.

Not every team has a Cinderella story like Jeremy Lin ready to step up and play like a star, carrying the team when their two leading scorers are sidelined. Frankly, many teams don’t need a guy like Lin to survive a stretch without their best player. Look no further than the current No. 1 seed in the East, the Chicago Bulls.

All Star point guard Derrick Rose has missed seven games this year, first struggling with a toe injury and lately suffering from a bad back. Still, the Bulls have a winning SU and ATS record in his absence even after their Rose-less loss in Boston on Sunday, a team deep enough to withstand the loss of their best player for games at a time.

C.J. Watson is certainly no Derrick Rose, but he’s an adequate replacement. John Lucas is no CJ, but he is capable of filling in for 10 or 15 minutes per game as a backup, when called upon.

If you’ve been trying to bet against the Bulls without Rose, you’ve been losing money, plain and simple. I’m not saying that an injury to Derrick Rose isn’t impactful. But I am saying that a Rose injury is basically a non-factor when it comes to the point spread. The markets are likely to over-adjust for his absence, not under-adjust.

The long term injury situations are obviously the most serious. Memphis is simply not the same team without Zack Randolph dominating the low post, scoring easy buckets, creating good looks for his teammates on the perimeter thanks to his ability to pass out of double teams, and cleaning up the glass.

It’s a very similar story for Atlanta without Al Horford – perhaps even more so, because Horford is an elite level defender as well. But the markets adjust to these types of injuries.

Even after their ugly blowout loss at home to Miami on Sunday, the Hawks are a perfectly reasonable 8-9-1 in the 18 games since Horford got hurt. Memphis entered Sunday with a 12-11 ATS mark in their 23 games since Randolph went down.

Even teams that get appreciably worse following an injury aren’t necessarily “bet-against” type squads. The markets adjust, and the pointspread becomes the great equalizer.

A team’s first game without their star is often a real step-up spot. Look at the Cavs playing without rookie sensation Kyrie Irving for the first time last week. After taking a knee to the head in Cleveland’s loss at Miami last week, Irving was forced to miss their next game, at home against the Clippers.

Money poured in on LA, but it was the Cavs who controlled the game, coming away with the outright upset victory. Ramon Sessions started at the point in place of Irving, and promptly hit 9-16 from the floor, 4-4 from the free throw line while dishing 13 assists.

This is the NBA, and most teams –even lottery bound squads like Byron Scott’s team – have capable short term fill-in’s stashed away on the bench, just waiting for an opportunity.

It’s the cluster injury situations that have the biggest impact – just like they do in football. Denver spent the better part of the last two weeks playing without three or four of their usual starters in the lineup. Danilo Gallinari, Aaron Afflalo, Timothy Mozgov and Nene aren’t necessarily household names. Neither is lockdown defender Corey Brewer coming off the bench.

But with that quintet all missing time due to injury, the Nuggets went through their single worst stretch of the season: 0-5 SU, 0-5 ATS. Once Afflalo, Nene and Brewer returned to the lineup, Denver immediately notched a SU underdog win on the road against a solid Indiana squad.

And when bad teams suffer cluster injuries, they have a built in excuse for repeated non-competitive efforts. The Nets fought the good fight for weeks to open the campaign, notching a 12-12 ATS mark through their first 24 games despite missing several key contributors.

But things have gone from bad to worse in recent weeks, when the injured Brook Lopez was joined by Mehmet Okur, Keith Bogans, Deshawn Stevenson, Marshawn Brooks and Damion James on the sidelines. Instead of competing, the Nets have been getting crushed: 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five ballgames.

It’s a similar story for other injury riddled bottom feeders like Charlotte and New Orleans. The Hornets were bad to begin with. When Eric Gordon hurt his knee, they got significantly worse. When Gordon was joined on the sidelines by Carl Landry, Jarrett Jack and Jason Smith – their three leading scorers, top assist man and top energy guy off the bench – a bad team became non-competitive.

Those willing to lay the big chalk to bet against the Hornets have cashed eight consecutive bets dating back to the last week of January.

The Bobcats had a poorly constructed roster to begin with. It’s pretty clear that Michael Jordan was a much better basketball player than basketball executive, joining the likes of Elgin Baylor, Kevin McHale and Wes Unseld in that department.

Charlotte wasn’t decimated with injuries, per se – they just suffered key injuries to guys who were irreplaceable in that lineup.

First key veteran swingman Corey Maggette got hurt. Then starting point guard DJ Augustin got hurt. Then leading scorer Gerald Henderson got hurt.

All of a sudden, Charlotte has lost 14 straight and 20 of their last 21. Bettors who have laid the big points necessary to bet against this miserable squad have cashed in. Charlotte is 3-0 ATS when they win SU, but just 6-18 ATS when they don’t.

Often times it’s not the superstars who have the biggest impact on a team’s results – it’s the key role players, or the non-household names that are simply irreplaceable. Don’t be shocked if Boston’s Brandon Bass has an ATS impact while he’s out with a knee injury, even though he’s not going to affect the pointspread one iota.

The Pacers haven’t gotten the same boost from their bench since George Hill got hurt; 2-6 ATS in the games he’s missed this year.

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