NFL Oddities
The Colts are the sixth team to start 0-12 since 1978. Only one of the
previous five teams went winless. The Packers have won 18 consecutive games. The
Dolphins have out-scored their last five opponents 139-54. Kansas City ran just
2 plays on the Chicago side of the field in the first half, yet they led 7-3 at
the half thanks to a Hail Mary touchdown pass caught by a running back. Tim
Tebow threw for 202 yards with 2 TD passes and 0 INT’s.
No Run, No Cover
Only 7 of the 32 teams in the NFL do not average at least 100 rushing yards
per game. Below is a list of those teams and their ATS record.
Browns: 4-7-1 Colts: 3-9 Packers: 8-4 Rams: 2-10 Giants: 5-6-1 Redskins: 5-7
Titans: 6-6
These teams are a combined 33-49-2 ATS (40.2%). Take out the 12-0 Packers,
and the record dips to 25-45-2 ATS (35.7%).
Stop the Run, Cover the Spread
There are also 7 teams in the NFL that hold their opponents to less than 100
rushing yards per game. Below is a list of those teams and their ATS record.
Falcons: 5-6-1 Dolphins: 6-6 Ravens: 7-4-1 Steelers: 6-6 Bears: 6-6 49ers:
10-1-1 Texans: 8-3-1
These teams have combined to go 48-32-4 ATS (60%). This proves that not only
is it important to be able to run the ball, but also stopping the run is just as
important. Even without the 49ers, this group would still be 38-31 ATS (55%).
How Important is 3rd Down?
On average, NFL teams convert and prevent their opponents from converting 3rd
downs 38% of the time. Do teams that convert more 3rd downs than they allow have
an advantage when covering spreads?
Saints: +18.6% Colts: -12.5% Texans: +11.4% Rams: -11.2% Ravens: +10.9%
Raiders: -6.7%
The three teams with the highest positive differential on 3rd down
conversions are a combined 23-11-2 ATS (67.6%). The three teams on the right
with the highest negative differential are a combined 13-23 ATS (36.1%). Take
out the Raiders who are actually 8-4 ATS and the record dips to 5-19 ATS
(20.8%).
Just Win and Cover in the NFL
NFL teams that won SU last week went 14-2 ATS (87.5%). That brings the season
total to 154-28-8 ATS (84.6%) so far this season. Thorough handicapping can help
you identify those teams that are winners each week, adding money to your
bankroll.
College Oddities
UCLA is the only team with a losing record playing in a bowl game. Illinois
started the season at 6-0; they went 0-6 to end the season. The Bruins and
Illini meet in the Toilet Bowl aka the Fight Hunger Bowl. LSU had just 13 first
downs, completed just 5 passes, and only had 237 yards of total offense in their
42-10 win over Georgia. The Bulldogs had 3 turnovers. North Texas completed just
2 of 7 passes for 23 yards, yet they beat MTSU 59-7. The Mean Green ran for 464
yards on 69 carries.
America’s Game
Is there any better rivalry game than Army/Navy? The 112th edition is this
Saturday in the Nation’s Capital as the Black Knights and Midshipmen will play
at FedEx Field. The series began in 1890 with a 24-0 Navy win. Navy has won the
last 9 meetings by an average of 25.7 points per game. Overall, Navy leads the
series 55-49 with 7 ties.
You can get all of Steve Merril’s free NFL and NCAAF winners and articles right here at www.aasiwins.com.
