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NFL Parity and 20 Point Blowouts by Jim Feist
For years, pro football has
been the sports leader when it comes to parity. Pete Rozelle was credited with,
“On any given Sunday any team can beat another.” The last few years it seems as
though parity has disappeared from the NFL. The Packers this season are
dominating, the 2008 Saints and Colts started a combined 16-0 SU/11-5 ATS and
the 2007 Patriots had a remarkable 16-0 regular season.
A close look,
however, shows that parity is alive and well. The Packers may have started 8-0,
but they had a 5 point win over Minnesota, gave up 38 points in a close win over
San Diego, along with 7 and 8 points wins over Carolina and New Orleans. In 2008
four wins by the Colts were by 4 points or less, while the 2007 Patriots were
just as lucky as they were good.
What New England did in 2007 was
unique, but let’s not forget that they were fortunate to run the regular season
table. They had wins over the Colts, Eagles, Ravens and Giants by 4, 3, 3 and 3
points. Counting the playoffs, the Patriots went 2-9 against the spread their
final 11 games. They were double digit favorites in their final ten and went 2-8
ATS.
Last season, parity really roared its head. The Chiefs, Bucs,
Raiders and Lions were much improved after being down for several seasons. The
team that won the Super Bowl, Green Bay, was fortunate to even make the
playoffs. This year, the Bills, 49ers and Bengals have defied most
prognosticators with consistently strong play in many areas, plenty of wins and
covers. Let’s throw the Panthers in there, as well, as this offense went from
being horrendous in 2010 to being electric under rookie QB Cam Newton and new
offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski.
Before the season started the top
teams in consideration to make the Super Bowl were the Packers, Steelers,
Patriots, Eagles, Colts, Falcons, Saints and Jets. How many have been dominant?
How many have struggled? The Pats just had back to back losses to the Steelers
and Giants because of a defense that has fallen off the map.
The Eagles
were supposed to dominate the NFC, yet suffered through a four-game skid in
addition to last week’s Monday night loss at home to the Bears as 8-point chalk.
The Falcons and Saints have had some defensive troubles, particularly in the
secondary, while the Jets have already suffered through a three-game skid.
Speaking of suffering, it’s hard to believe the Colts were in the Top 10 before
the season started to win the Super Bowl. The Peyton Manning injury was
devastating, but almost as amazing is the demise of their defense. We might as
well give Manning another MVP trophy, as the Colts have gone from Super Bowl
contender to the worst team in the league.
Last season before the season
started the top teams were the Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Chargers, Vikings and
Cowboys. The Chargers and Vikings found a slew of ways to lose games and didn’t
even make the playoffs, while the Cowboys fired their coach in a train wreck
season. Remember that Dallas and the Saints were the top two teams expected to
win the NFC!
Injuries are the most obvious factor in leveling the
playing field, turning powerhouse teams on paper into paper tigers. This year
it’s Manning. Two years ago defending AFC East champion Miami Dolphins lost
starting QB Chad Pennington for the year. Last season, QBs Brett Favre and Tony
Romo were hit with injuries. In 2008, reigning MVP Tom Brady was lost for the
season in the opening minute of the first game, completely changing the AFC
picture.
There’s an old wagering adage about going against pro football
teams who roll by 20 points in back-to-back games. That’s not easy to do. If a
pro team beats another by 20-plus points in consecutive weeks, it can be a good
time to look at the other side, as the club off two blowout wins can be
overvalued. In order to win by that kind of margin in consecutive games, a team
has to play close to two perfect games back-to-back. In this day of parity, that
takes a rare combination of talent, execution, health and luck.
It’s
already happened this season. Remember how bad the Chiefs started this season?
Kansas City opened the season with back-to-back colossal stinkers, losing 41-7
and 48-3. They were a +16 dog the next game, but a very different team showed up
in a 20-17 loss at San Diego, an easy cover.
A year ago the Jaguars got
routed by the Chargers (38-13) and Eagles (28-3), then as a +7 dog beat the
Colts, 31-28. In 2009 after losing road games by 23 and 37 points, the Raiders
stumbled home and not only covered, but beat the Eagles as 14-point dogs, 13-9.
That same season the Browns lost back-to-back games by 20+ in Weeks 2 and 3,
then got the cover against the Bengals as a +6 home dog. After losing by 35 and
28, the Rams got the cover in a 23-20 loss at Jacksonville as a +9 dog. It is
hard to wipe out a pro team by 3 TDs three games in a row.
It might not
seem like it at times, but this is parity at work, with salary caps and free
agency making it difficult for teams to simply buy players to shore up weak
areas, as is the case in baseball. In football, if you pay a lot to get or
retain a key player, you may lose a star in another area. Overall, you rarely
see pro teams keep up 20-point or more dominance for more than two games.
You can get all of Jim Feist’s FREE NFL winners and articles right here at www.aasiwins.com.
however, shows that parity is alive and well. The Packers may have started 8-0,
but they had a 5 point win over Minnesota, gave up 38 points in a close win over
San Diego, along with 7 and 8 points wins over Carolina and New Orleans. In 2008
four wins by the Colts were by 4 points or less, while the 2007 Patriots were
just as lucky as they were good.
unique, but let’s not forget that they were fortunate to run the regular season
table. They had wins over the Colts, Eagles, Ravens and Giants by 4, 3, 3 and 3
points. Counting the playoffs, the Patriots went 2-9 against the spread their
final 11 games. They were double digit favorites in their final ten and went 2-8
ATS.
Raiders and Lions were much improved after being down for several seasons. The
team that won the Super Bowl, Green Bay, was fortunate to even make the
playoffs. This year, the Bills, 49ers and Bengals have defied most
prognosticators with consistently strong play in many areas, plenty of wins and
covers. Let’s throw the Panthers in there, as well, as this offense went from
being horrendous in 2010 to being electric under rookie QB Cam Newton and new
offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski.
teams in consideration to make the Super Bowl were the Packers, Steelers,
Patriots, Eagles, Colts, Falcons, Saints and Jets. How many have been dominant?
How many have struggled? The Pats just had back to back losses to the Steelers
and Giants because of a defense that has fallen off the map.
were supposed to dominate the NFC, yet suffered through a four-game skid in
addition to last week’s Monday night loss at home to the Bears as 8-point chalk.
The Falcons and Saints have had some defensive troubles, particularly in the
secondary, while the Jets have already suffered through a three-game skid.
Speaking of suffering, it’s hard to believe the Colts were in the Top 10 before
the season started to win the Super Bowl. The Peyton Manning injury was
devastating, but almost as amazing is the demise of their defense. We might as
well give Manning another MVP trophy, as the Colts have gone from Super Bowl
contender to the worst team in the league.
started the top teams were the Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Chargers, Vikings and
Cowboys. The Chargers and Vikings found a slew of ways to lose games and didn’t
even make the playoffs, while the Cowboys fired their coach in a train wreck
season. Remember that Dallas and the Saints were the top two teams expected to
win the NFC!
playing field, turning powerhouse teams on paper into paper tigers. This year
it’s Manning. Two years ago defending AFC East champion Miami Dolphins lost
starting QB Chad Pennington for the year. Last season, QBs Brett Favre and Tony
Romo were hit with injuries. In 2008, reigning MVP Tom Brady was lost for the
season in the opening minute of the first game, completely changing the AFC
picture.
teams who roll by 20 points in back-to-back games. That’s not easy to do. If a
pro team beats another by 20-plus points in consecutive weeks, it can be a good
time to look at the other side, as the club off two blowout wins can be
overvalued. In order to win by that kind of margin in consecutive games, a team
has to play close to two perfect games back-to-back. In this day of parity, that
takes a rare combination of talent, execution, health and luck.
already happened this season. Remember how bad the Chiefs started this season?
Kansas City opened the season with back-to-back colossal stinkers, losing 41-7
and 48-3. They were a +16 dog the next game, but a very different team showed up
in a 20-17 loss at San Diego, an easy cover.
routed by the Chargers (38-13) and Eagles (28-3), then as a +7 dog beat the
Colts, 31-28. In 2009 after losing road games by 23 and 37 points, the Raiders
stumbled home and not only covered, but beat the Eagles as 14-point dogs, 13-9.
That same season the Browns lost back-to-back games by 20+ in Weeks 2 and 3,
then got the cover against the Bengals as a +6 home dog. After losing by 35 and
28, the Rams got the cover in a 23-20 loss at Jacksonville as a +9 dog. It is
hard to wipe out a pro team by 3 TDs three games in a row.
seem like it at times, but this is parity at work, with salary caps and free
agency making it difficult for teams to simply buy players to shore up weak
areas, as is the case in baseball. In football, if you pay a lot to get or
retain a key player, you may lose a star in another area. Overall, you rarely
see pro teams keep up 20-point or more dominance for more than two games.
