Over the last decade we’ve seen losses pile up with teams the
week after they play the Steelers with the theory that opposing teams – whether
winning or losing – are mentally and physically exhausted.
Three weeks ago, the Steelers beat the Patriots. The Patriots
then went into a rare area of the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era by losing their
second game in a row the following week against the Giants.
There is no better example of the Steelers hangover than what
we’ve seen out of the Ravens this season. For the second time this season, the
Ravens got beat as a road favorite the week after playing the Steelers.
The first time was after a 35-7 week one blowout and losing to
losing the 26-13 to the Titans the following week. Two weeks ago, the Ravens
completed the season sweep by beating Pittsburgh 23-20. Like clockwork, much to
the chagrin of just about every parlay in the state, the Ravens lost as 7-point
favorites at Seattle.
The Seattle win was the best decision of the day for just about
every sports book in the state and helped them to another winning week. Coming
into the week, expectations should have been high for the books considering 11
of the games were spreads of 3½ or lower making the decision process tougher for
the public and it turned out exactly that way.
The favorites went 7-8 on the week (including Thursday’s
Raiders win) with all eight underdogs winning outright. The biggest upset of the
day was the Cardinals winning at Philadelphia as 13½-point underdogs.
Unfortunately for most books across the state, they missed much
of the Philly action because the game was off the board so long due to the
status of starting QB Kevin Kolb.
With the Cardinals winning two in a row now behind backup QB
John Skelton, who has looked much more efficient than Kolb has while healthy,
coach Ken Whisenhunt now has a major dilemma on his hands. Skelton is now 4-2 as
the starter for the Cardinals, including two big wins over the Broncos and
Cowboys last season.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see Whisenhunt make Kolb take some
more time to heal his turf toe and let Skelton start this week at San
Francisco.
Other games the sports books fared well with last week were the
Rams winning at Cleveland, and Denver beating Kansas City.
Tim Tebow still throws the ball ugly, but is now 3-1 as the
starting QB. Denver, knowing they won’t win many games with his arm, finally
went with his strength and ran the ball down Kansas City’s throat for 244 yards.
Tebow didn’t complete a pass in the first half and had only two completions for
the game, but one was a perfect 56-yard TD toss.
The bettors fared well on a few games, but not collectively and
weren’t able to gain any momentum with multi-legged parlays. The Steelers
beating Cincinnati was the biggest public game of the day that got there. They
also did well with the Texans and Bears winning.
The late game had the equal action on the Patriots and Jets,
but it was the OVER that made this a loser for the sports books and gave back a
little of the money won from the early games. For the most part, any isolated
game that goes OVER will usually be a losing decision for the books.
We got a bye from the byes last week, but this week four teams
have the week off. Seven of the games this week have pronounced favorites which
will make it easier for the public to side with. Should five of those seven
games that are 6-point favorites or higher cover, it will be a rough Sunday for
the books.
The Monday night game at New England this week figures to be
one of those pile on games by the public, but the question is when the books
will put the game up. Chiefs starting QB Matt Cassel isn’t likely to play making
Tyler Palko the likely starter.
The Pats were looking to be about a 13½-point favorite with
Cassel in the lineup, but based on the way the Chiefs have played the last two
weeks and giving a rookie his first start on the road, we could be looking at a
15-point spread.
Since the sports books can already anticipate the public laying
the big favorite on Monday night, the line might start higher to offset
liability and welcome Chiefs money.
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