Jacksonville Jaguars’ have real point spread potential in AFC by The Gaming Today’s Ted Sevransky

We’ve passed the halfway point of the current NFL season. The
final bye weeks come this Sunday in Week 11, and with that, we’ll enter the
homestretch of the 2011 campaign.

As we progress from Thanksgiving towards Christmas and New
Year’s, I like to take a short break from my weekly ‘team notes’ column – gotta
keep the material fresh throughout the season.

Instead of my AFC team notes this week, I’ll do a broader
overview; taking a look at all 16 AFC teams to examine which squads offer real
point spread potential down the stretch, and which squads look like solid bet
againsts in crunch time.

NFL FOOTBALL AFC EAST

Buffalo is trending downwards following their blowout loss at
Dallas. The Bills have lost 4 of 6 in SU fashion, their only two wins against
bottom feeders Philly and Washington. The Bills defense notched four
interceptions in a game twice in a row earlier this year and had three straight
games with a defensive score. Those defensive scores haven’t been coming in
recent weeks and Buffalo is now 4-4-1 ATS – headed in the wrong direction.

New York is 4-5 against the number. Rex Ryan’s defense ranks in
the top quartile of the NFL in yardage allowed, but New York has allowed 30+
points in four of their last seven games – all losses. Mark Sanchez has seen his
QB rating rise from 63.0 as a rookie to 75.3 last year up to 81.5 in 2011. He’s
on pace to throw more TD’s with a higher completion percentage and more yards
per attempt than at any previous point in his career. A struggling running game
and mediocre defensive results have kept the Jets from joining the ranks of the
elite.

Miami has shown signs of life, notching back-to-back SU and ATS
victories after an 0-7 start (1-5-1 ATS). But getting consistent late season
production out of a veteran team with a suspect quarterback, a lame duck head
coach and no hope for the playoffs is not something that we can count on.

New England (5-4 ATS) is on the other end of the equation; a
good (but not great) team that attracts significant betting market support – you
don’t find many bargains betting the Patriots these days. That being said, the
Pats late season schedule is as easy as it gets. Their only remaining game
against an opponent with a winning record comes in their Week 17 revenge matchup
at home against Buffalo.

NFL FOOTBALL AFC NORTH

Cincinnati has been the most consistent moneymaker (7-2 ATS) in
the division. The betting markets haven’t respected the Bengals from Day 1 so
Cincy has feasted on a relatively soft slate of opponents. Both of Cincinnati’s
ATS defeats this year have come against the two best teams they’ve faced – the
49ers and Steelers – and both came at home.

Pittsburgh has survived through a bevy of injuries on both the
offensive and defensive lines. They’ve also survived the dreaded “Super Bowl
Loser” curse; a well-coached team that continues to make the most of their
talent level on a weekly basis.

Baltimore swept its season series with the Steelers, but has
been sloppy and sluggish in bad road losses at Tennessee, Jacksonville and
Seattle. More than any other team in this division, the Ravens need to win the
North to ensure a home game (or two) in January.

Cleveland is solid on the defensive side of the football – No.
6 in the NFL in yardage, No. 11 in points per game allowed. But Cleveland’s
offense has been downright inept – only the Jags, Colts and Rams have scored
fewer points. The last time Pat Shurmur’s team scored more than 17 points was
Week 2 at Indy! It’s worth noting that five of the Browns last seven games come
against their defensive minded divisional foes. Bad news for a bottom tier
offense.

NFL
FOOTBALL AFC
SOUTH

Houston has been the only profitable team. I expect the Texans
to retain their pointspread value right into the playoffs. They have been
playing for more than a month without their best offensive weapon WR Andre
Johnson, who is soon to return. Their best defensive weapon LB Mario Williams is
out for the year.

Wade Phillips might not be a great head coach, but he’s one
heck of a defensive coordinator, turning this bottom tier stop unit into the top
defense in the NFL (yardage) and second in points per game allowed. The Texans
also rank in the Top 10 in both offense and special teams; a balanced, hungry
team with continued moneymaking potential.

Jacksonville probably has the most moneymaking potential down
the stretch. The betting markets don’t respect a three win squad with a rookie
QB and limited skill position talent that has scored fewer points than 30 of the
31 other NFL teams.

The Jaguars continue to play solid defense on a weekly basis,
keeping them in games, covering spreads as an underdog. QB Blaine Gabbert has
only thrown five interceptions in seven games as the starter. If he can continue
to avoid mistakes, the Jags are a classic ‘small market, good defense, losing
team’ type of squad – the type of team that makes money for their supporters
down the stretch in ‘under-the-radar’ fashion.

Tennessee is holding its own. We’ll leave it there for now.

Indianapolis (2-8 ATS) quit on themselves, their coach and
their season more than a month ago. It’s going to be very difficult for the
sportsbooks to make a line high enough to draw enough support so they’ll have
two way action on many Indy games down the stretch.

NFL
FOOTBALL AFC WEST

As wide open as any division in football with only a single
game separating first place from last. If bettors can correctly identify the
‘bet-on’ or ‘bet-against’ team out of this quartet, there’s money to be made! Of
course, when it comes to identifying that ‘bet-on’ squad, there are
difficulties, because all four teams in this division are fundamentally
flawed.

San Diego is poorly coached, injury riddled and spent the
majority of the Norv Turner era finding ways to lose winnable games in
excruciating fashion. San Diego probably has the most talent, but they aren’t
healthy and don’t look hungry.

Oakland has the worst run defense in the NFL, and just
mortgaged its future to acquire an aging QB (Carson Palmer) who is 5-14 SU in
his last 19 games as a starter.

Denver is 3-1 in the last four games with “intangibles” that
seem very real. Tim Tebow has completed a grand total of 43 passes in those four
games as the starting QB, and the defense behind him is loaded with holes.

Kansas City has struggled to beat even the weakest of the weak,
needing furious second half rallies to knock off winless Indy and two-win
Minnesota. The Chiefs don’t really have an area of legitimate strength on either
side of the football. Betting against Todd Haley’s squad in late November and
December might be the single most profitable course of action.

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