COLLEGE HOT SEAT UPDATE by Bruce Marshall of the Gold Sheet

Not anymore, however, as over the past several years we have been more apt to see college coaches walk the plank before the end of the current season than those in the pro ranks. Following that recent trend, 2011 has already seen three coaches (New Mexico’s Mike Locksley, Arizona’s Mike Leach, and Tulane’s Bob Toledo) thrown overboard before the first half of the season was complete. More carnage could be on the way in the second half of the campaign.

For the moment, let’s review those coaches we had on the hottest seats entering 2012 and recall our summertime review as we update current status of each. As always, it’s a good idea for handicappers to be aware of what’s going on, as there are still plenty of situations that can deteriorate and emerge as potentially-profitable go-against situations in the next six weeks.

Original 2011 preview: Mark Richt, Georgia…Richt has won plenty over the past decade in Athens, but the Bulldogs have been losing traction the past few seasons and slipped all of the way under .500 last fall (6-7), capped by a loss to Conference USA rep UCF in the Liberty Bowl. But discontent in Bulldog Nation began to fester as far back as 2008, when a team featuring Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno fell fall short of contending for national honors as predicted by many, and the descent has been rapid since. A mere two wins over rival Florida hasn’t helped Richt, either. With the SEC East in a down phase, Richt has a realistic chance to re-establish himself this season with a team that might be favored to win that half of the league. A second straight sub-.500 finish would not be tolerated, however, and SEC sources tell us another minor bowl appearance such as the Liberty probably won’t be acceptable, either.

Update: After a slow start that had the war drums beating loudly in Athens, Richt looks to be moving into safe territory as the Dawgs have won five in a row to move alongside South Carolina at the top of the SEC East. And with Steve Spurrier now without star RB Marcus Lattimore for the rest of the season due to injury, Georgia might be the favorite to win its half of the loop. Expect Richt to survive handily into 2012.

Original 2011 preview: Rick Neuheisel, UCLA…In Neuheisel’s defense, he’s coached in some bad luck the past three years since returning “home” to Westwood, where he was QB of a colorful UCLA Rose Bowl team once upon a time, in 1983. Cluster injuries, especially at QB, have not helped, but the product on the field has been subpar, indicated by Rick’s 15-22 mark that includes a pair of 4-8 finishes, the last of which a year ago prompting some Bruin honks to demand a change. The offense, supposedly an area of expertise for Neuheisel, has been a mess since his arrival, and Rick’s Bruins have achieved less than predecessor Karl Dorrell’s teams did in their first three years between 2003-05. Neuheisel also set himself up for trouble when arriving with lots of bravado in 2008 and claiming that the “college football monopoly was over” in Los Angeles as it related to crosstown Southern Cal’s recent domination. But that hasn’t changed, with Neuheisel 0-3 against the Trojans, and the Bruins a far cry from glory days that now seem almost ancient history. Word from Pac-12 scouts is that AD Dan Guerrero might also be under the gun and could sink or swim in his job based upon what Neuheisel, who threatens to be his second straight blown football hire after Dorrell’s failed tenure, does this fall.

Update: The jury is still out on Neuheisel, sitting at 3-4. More injury problems, especially at QB with Richard Brehaut now out with a leg injury, threaten to completely derail the Bruins (and Neuheisel) if fragile alternative Kevin Prince should go down again. Some Pac-12 sources suspect Neuheisel might be close to taking his last roll of the dice with true frosh QB Brett Hundley, who looks a potential better fit for the UCLA Pistol but was slowed in the summer by a knee injury. The bigger question: if Neuheisel sneaks to 6-6 and a minor bowl, will be enough to hold him over into 2012? UCLA used to expect much more from its football coaches.

Original 2011 preview: Dabo Swinney, Clemson…Swinney was a default hire from the outset in Death Valley, promoted as he was in the middle of the 2008 season after Tommy Bowden’s tenure unraveled. ACC sources report a cash crunch at the school and within the IPTAY support group limited the scope of securing a higher-profile permanent replacement for Bowden, and Swinney kept the gig, partly because he was willing to work for less than other interested candidates. Dabo has done just well enough to stay on the Tiger job and has made it into a bowl game each of the past three years, but last season it merely was another “L” in a 6-7 campaign that ended with a loss to South Florida in the Meineke Car Care Bowl. They expect more in Death Valley, and the fact that Rich Rodriguez, who coordinated the Tiger offenses in the exciting early years of the Bowden regime, is available once more (though admittedly damaged goods after the Michigan fiasco) has the IPTAY bunch taking note…and seeking more donations.

Update: Pull Dabo off the list; his Tigers are 7-0 and looking like the ACC’s likely BCS rep. The hire of o.c. Chad Morris from Tulsa might be one of the best staff additions this season. Swinney instead is on a short list of Coach of the Year candidates.

Original 2011 preview: Mack Brown, Texas…Say it ain’t so! Can Brown really be in trouble at Austin, just two years removed from a BCS title game appearance? Maybe, especially if the Horns again sink beneath .500 as they did a year ago when finishing an unsightly 5-7, with humbling home losses to the likes of UCLA, Iowa State, and Baylor. Supposed coach-in-waiting Will Muschamp also bailed out after 2010 to take the job at Florida, so the apparent line of succession has been interrupted, but that will probably not provide Brown any cover if he slips beneath .500 again. And judging from how mediocre the Horns looked last season, a quick bounce back is no guarantee. A second straight subpar season is not out of the question, and remember, immediate predecessors Fred Akers, David McWilliams, and John Mackovic were all dismissed at Texas for less.

Update: Brown seems to be on more secure footing, as staff changes and the influx of several impactful true frosh (RB Malcolm Brown, QB David Ash, WR Jaxon Shipley among others) have already made a significant contribution. Back-to-back losses to high-flying Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are no shame, but if Texas really backslides in November (and the schedule isn’t that easy), Brown could still find himself in the soup.

Original 2011 preview: Dennis Erickson, Arizona State…The Sun Devils were one of the hard-luck teams of 2010, losing 4 games by 4 points or fewer, but the fact is that ASU hasn’t been to a bowl or finished above .500 since Erickson’s first year in the desert back in 2007. Plenty of empty seats at Sun Devil Stadium prompted lots of speculation about Erickson surviving beyond last season, but he’s been given one more chance (partially, according to Pac-12 sources, due to financial considerations) to forge a turnaround. The good news is that ASU is regarded as a favorite in the new Pac-12 South, with a defense considered perhaps the best in the conference. They’re also going to be wearing new uniforms this fall in Tempe; anything to change recent luck will surely be welcomed by Erickson, who assuredly cannot survive another non-winning or bowl-less campaign.

Update: Although Erickson has two losses vs. Illinois and Oregon, he got the big win he needed over Southern Cal and his Sun Devils appear a good bet to win the Pac-12 South. Barring a late-season collapse (unlikely with the schedule easing up considerably in the next month), Erickson appears safe.

Original 2011 Preview: Luke Fickell, Ohio State…This situation goes without saying, as Fickell’s appointment is an interim one after Jim Tressel’s abrupt resignation on Memorial Day. Even if the Buckeyes succeed for Fickell, many Big Ten sources suspect that OSU will be likely to disassemble the Tressel staff (of which Fickell, promoted from co-defensive coordinator, was a part) and look elsewhere for leadership. Already, names such as Urban Meyer, Bob Stoops, Bo Pelini, and Mark Dantonio have been mentioned. Regardless, with numerous player suspensions and the fallout from “Tressel-gate” likely to continue, it will be a turbulent summer and fall in Columbus. Many also suggest to not read too much into the recent vote of confidence given by school prexy Gordon Gee to embattled AD Gene Smith, as both could still be in the line of fire before the summer is complete.

Update: Although most Big Ten observers believe Fickell is holding his own in a difficult situation, the Buckeyes are only 4-3, and it would now be difficult to imagine any scenario in which Fickell is the preferred choice of the OSU brass. Fickell might warrant an extension as a staff member, however, which could be a prerequisite for the new coach.

Original 2011 preview: Paul Wulff, Washington State…Wulff was considered a longshot to last beyond the 2010 campaign, when a 2-10 mark seemed to seal his fate, especially with new AD Bill Moos (a former Coug player) in the saddle. Moos, however, saw enough progress in last year’s Wazzu to give Wulff (also a former WSU player) another chance in 2011. There’s nowhere to go but up after winning just five games in three seasons, but the presence of touted jr. QB Jeff Tuel offers some hope for this fall, and efforts were generally far more competitive in 2010 than in 2009 or 2008. Moos also decided to cut Wulff a bit of slack, acknowledging that his coach has dealt with an uncommon rash of injuries and had inherited a carcass of a program from predecessor Bill Doba, under whom the product had deteriorated dramatically in the Palouse. Anything other than taking a couple of steps forward this season, however, and Wulff is unlikely to last into 2012.

Update: Consensus opinion seems to be that Wulff has the Cougars moving in the right direction, with a 3-3 mark despite the fact starting QB Jeff Tuel (who just returned last Saturday vs. Stanford) has been on the shelf most of the season. A late collapse could still cost Wulff his job, although the Cougs still have a realistic shot at their first bowl since 2003, which would indicate safety for Wulff.

Original 2011 preview: Joe Paterno, Penn State…Shades, on the hot seat? Not in a traditional sense, as school brass is never likely to force Paterno out the door. But if the Nittany Lions slip this fall, the pressure is going to begin mounting for the school to at least put a successor plan in place, something Paterno has been reluctant to embrace. Big Ten sources suggest the only situation that might placate Paterno is by naming son and assistant coach Jay as the coach-in-waiting, but administrators are unlikely to accommodate such a request, and would be more likely to name d.c. Tom Bradley as the man if they could get the elder Paterno’s blessing. Comparisons to Florida State, and the apparent rebirth of the Seminole program under Jimbo Fisher after FSU’s own awkward removal of the iconic Bobby Bowden, could put more pressure on the school and Paterno. Informed observers suggest that it will take some bold administrator(s) to finally stand up to Paterno, who is entitled to outline the details of his departure, but not to stonewall the process indefinitely. Otherwise, we suggest this apparent stalemate could turn uglier than Bowden’s forced departure in Tallahassee.

Update: No official indicators from Penn State that Paterno is ready to step down, but insider chatter from the Big Ten indicates otherwise. Stay tuned.

Original 2011 preview: Danny Hope, Purdue…Although it’s only the third year of Hope’s regime, and his Boilermakers have risen up with spunky efforts on occasion over the past two seasons (including a memorable upset over Ohio State in 2009), indicators are not encouraging in West Lafayette. No bowls, a 9-15 overall mark, home defeats vs. MAC reps Northern Illinois and Toledo, six straight losses to end 2010, and, worst of all, sluggish ticket sales do not constitute the sort of trendline that suggests a coach is long for his job. As a starting point, keeping QBs Rob Henry and Robert Marve healthy would certainly help, but the feeling in Big 10 country is that the program is regressing. Hope might not even have to get to a bowl to last into 2012, but progress needs to be seen, and another 4-win (or less) season puts him into the soup.

Update: Despite a 3-3 mark, Hope appears in trouble unless Purdue can advance to a bowl. QB injuries have been a negative in West Lafayette, but a recent switch in emphasis to the ground game seems to have reignited the Boilermakers. Fate to be determined over the next six weeks.

Original 2011 preview: Houston Nutt, Ole Miss…Never mind that Nutt won 9 games and Cotton Bowls in each of his first two years with the Rebels. Nutt was considered to have inherited a talented nucleus of players in 2008 from predecessor and recruiting whiz Ed Orgeron, before the 2009 team was considered a bit of an underachiever, and last year’s slip to 4-8. Which, coupled with the resurgence of in-state rival Mississippi State, has suddenly turned up the heat in Oxford. Regional sources report that Nutt, loyal to a fault, begrudgingly made a couple of staff changes at the suggestion (insistence?) of AD Pete Boone, but decreasing SEC win totals in the past three years have got the war drums beating in The Grove.

Update: Nutt remains in trouble with the Rebs at 2-4 and unlikely to go “bowling” for a second straight year. Nutt’s hope is that he has finally settled upon a QB, juco redshirt Randall Mackey, who could ignite a late-season uptick that might be needed to save his job.

Original 2011 preview: Steve Fairchild, Colorado State…This looked to be a homerun hire a couple of years ago when Ram alum and Sonny Lubick disciple Fairchild steered his first CSU team in 2008 to an unexpected 7-6 mark and a New Mexico Bowl win over Fresno State. Since then, however, it has all gone pear-shaped in Fort Collins, with back-to-back 3-9 seasons. Now Fairchild is faced with the prospects of getting the Rams back (or at least close) to a bowl bid before he can begin to feel comfy about returning for 2012.

Update: The natives are restless in Fort Collins with few playmakers having emerged for the Rams and the offense stalling. There’s no excuse not to make a bowl in a shallow league such as the Mountain West, and Fairchild might not get another chance if CSU fades late as it has done the past two years.

Original 2011 preview: Neil Callaway, UAB…Another coach who has likely been helped by the downturn in the economy, Callaway (15-33 in four years with the Blazers) was helped after last season’s 4-8 mark by the fact UAB was not in a position to be able to afford a buyout of his contract. Since 2007, Callaway’s Blazers have stayed fairly competitive, but even with reduced expectations at UAB, a fifth straight losing season would be hard to overcome.

Update: At 1-6, Callaway’s chances for survival into 2012 appear slim and none. No surprise if UAB makes a move before the end of the season and names d.c. Tommy West, former HC at Clemson and Memphis, as an interim replacement.