Joseph D'Amico

Super Bowl 45 Countdown! by Jim Feist

 

In the world of eleven to ten, there’s nothing quite like Super Bowl week. In this case, it’s two weeks, as the teams have two weeks to prepare for the Big Game. It’s also one of the most creative weeks of the sports betting season. While there’s only one game left on the football calendar, there are still ample opportunities for betting with hundreds of creative props by various oddsmakers.

For example, you can bet on the exact score of the game by each team, or who will score first. A year ago, Pierre Garcon scored the first TD at 10-to-1 odds. Two years ago, RB Gary Russell was 18-to-1 to score the first TD in the Super Bowl and did on a one-yard run. He finished with minus-three yards rushing but cashed that exclusive prop. Four years ago, if you bet on Chicago return specialist Devin Hester to score the first touchdown of the game, you would have cashed a 25-to-1 prop ticket after he returned the opening kickoff 92 yards. 14 seconds in cashing a 25-to-1 ticket is the best way to watch a Super Bowl!

You can wager that no TDs will be scored by either team, often at 50-to-1. Of course, that has never happened as we head to Super Bowl 45 next week. There also has never been overtime, though you will be able to wager on “Will there be overtime or not?” There will be “over/under” lines offered on how many touchdown passes a quarterback might throw, the first team to turn the ball over and even the coin flip. There will be creative wagers offered such as how many receiving yards one player might get matched up against the number of points the NBA’s Dwight Howard or Paul Pierce might have as the Magic/Celtics battle before the Super Sunday kickoff.

The Super Bowl brings out the best in the creative minds of oddsmakers. Smart bettors will search through all the props, totals and side bets offered in an attempt to find an edge and add to their bankrolls. Since Super Bowl X in 1976 between the Steelers and Cowboys, there have been 20 “overs” and 15 “unders.”

Why so many “overs?” One factor is that coaches with a lead are less likely to sit on the ball in the second half in a Super Bowl. If a team is up 17-0 at the half of a December game, for example, a coach might be inclined to go conservative, run the clock and avoid injuries. In the postseason, it’s the final game of the year and no lead is safe. No coach wants to play super-conservative and be remembered as the guy who blew a 20-0 lead in the biggest game of his career. Since it’s the last game of the season, coaches often put in trick plays and new offensive wrinkles in an attempt to maximize scoring opportunities.

Despite the excessive “overs” the last thirty years, as far as reaching the big game, you can’t overlook the importance of defense. The No. 1 ranked defense fueled the run of the NY Jets through the playoffs last season the Steelers this season. In fact, in the Conference Championship games all four teams in the Top 10 in yards and points allowed met. Last year was a bit of an aberration with the offensive-oriented Colts and Saints meeting, but remember two years ago in the conference championship games, the Steelers, Ravens and Eagles were 1, 2 and 3 in the NFL in total defense.

Three years ago the big story was the unbeaten record of the Patriots and their record-setting offense, but who came out ahead? The monster defense of the Giants kept the game close and was the main reason in their 17-14 upset. Who can forget eight years ago when the No. 1 offense (Oakland) faced the No. 1 defense (Tampa Bay)? Oakland’s great offense was a 4-point favorite, but Tampa’s defense dominated in a 48-21 rout. In fact, seven of the last ten Super Bowl champs have had statistically better defenses than their offenses, including the 2005 Steelers (4th in defense) and 2008 Steelers (No. 1). Three of those champs, the 2001 Patriots, the ’02 Buccaneers and the ’07 Giants, were Super Bowl underdogs.

You’ll be able to find creative point spread props, too. Four years ago, the total number of field goals was 3½ over +135. The Colts and Bears combined for 4 field goals as the over just made it. Five years ago Seattle RB Shaun Alexander had these over/under props: Total yards 89½, carries 21½, and longest rush 19½. The final tallies: 95 yards, 20 carries, with the longest rush of 21 yards. Six years ago the number of passing yards by QB Tom Brady: 237½. The “under” ended up being the winner, but not by much: Brady finished with 236 passing yards.

Key numbers will come into play, as well, as books are petrified of getting middled. 11 years ago the Rams were a 7 to 7½-point favorite against the Titans. The Rams won by seven points, 23-16. The most famous example was in 1979, forever known in Las Vegas as “Black Sunday.” The Steelers opened a 2½-point favorite over the Cowboys, were bet up to 5, then back down to 4. Books everywhere were sick when the Steelers won, 35-31, landing on the dreaded ‘M’ word!

Super Bowl Total Over/Under
44 Saints 31, Colts 17 56 Under
43 Steelers 27, Cardinals 23 47 Over
42 Giants 17, Patriots 14 52 Under
41 Colts 29, Bears 17 49 Under
40 Steelers 21, Seahawks 10 48 Under
39 Patriots 24, Eagles 21 47 Under
38 Patriots 32, Panthers 29 38 Over
37 Bucs 48, Raiders 21 43- Over
36 Patriots 20, Rams 17 53 Under
35 Ravens 34, Giants 7 33 Over
34 Rams 23, Titans 16 48 Under
33 Broncos 34, Falcons 19 51 Over
32 Broncos 31, Packers 24 49 Over
31 Packers 35, Patriots 21 52 Over
30 Cowboys 27, Steelers 17 52 Under
29 49ers 49, Chargers 26 53 Over
28 Cowboys 30, Bills 13 50 Under
27 Cowboys 52, Bills 17 44- Over
26 Redskins 37, Bills 24 49 Over
25 Giants 20, Bills 19 40- Under
24 49ers 55, Broncos 10 48 Over
23 49ers 20, Bengals 16 48 Under
22 Redskins 42, Broncos 10 47 Over
21 Giants 39, Broncos 20 40 Over
20 Bears 46, Patriots 10 37- Over
19 49ers 39, Dolphins 16 53- Over
18 Raiders 38, Redskins 9 48 Under
17 Redskins 27, Dolphins 17 36- Over
16 49ers 26, Bengals 21 48 Under
15 Raiders 27, Eagles 10 37- Under
14 Steelers 31, Rams 19 36 Over
13 Steelers 35, Cowboys 31 37 Over
12 Cowboys 27, Broncos 10 39 Under
11 Raiders 32, Vikings 14 38 Over
10 Steelers 21, Cowboys 17 36 Over
9 Steelers 16, Vikings 6 33 Under
8 Dolphins 24, Vikings 7 33 Under
7 Dolphins 14, Redskins 7 33 Under
6 Cowboys 24, Dolphins 3 34 Under
5 Colts 16, Cowboys 13 36 Under
4 Chiefs 23, Vikings 7 39 Under
3 Jets 16, Colts 7 40 Under
2 Packers 33, Raiders 14 40 Over
1 Packers 35, KC 13 NL NL

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