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Jimmy Boyd
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Tony Karpinski
TonyK (3G-Sports) has won several handicapping contests especially in football, as he finished in the top 10 in the renowned NFL Las Vegas Hilton $500,000.
Ray Monohan
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September Football: Upset City! by our own Jim Feist
There’s a reason they play the games. Teams don’t always play the way stats and power rankings suggest they are supposed to. That’s often evident early in the pro and college football seasons because some teams are very different from year to year. In Week 1 of the NFL season, the Bears, Bengals, Bills, Lions and Redskins all won straight up as dog, while the Cowboys and Vikings covered.
One thing that has stood out is that the offenses are much improved across the NFL. Part of the reason is rule changes over the last seven years (enforcing the 5-yard rule on defensive backs, the Tom Brady to protect the QBs) have favored the offenses. Another part if that teams that had lousy quarterback play last season (Bills, Cardinals, Panthers, Titans) have improved remarkably. The Redskins have a much better offensive line which is helping the offense, while the Lions have QB Matthew Stafford healthy. All in all, it’s become a passing league and scoreboard operators have been busy. Having a potent offense can help underdogs.
In the colleges, the Auburn defense struggled against Utah State in the opener, Ohio State has struggled because of all their changes/suspensions, while Notre Dame started 0-2 SU/ATS as a favorite each time because of turnovers.
September is a fascinating time for handicappers to follow college football partly because of surprises. Two years ago Oklahoma was anticipated by many to return to the national title game, but couldn’t even get a win in Week 1, losing as a 23-point favorite to BYU, 14-13. Wasn’t it just a few years ago the Sooners were upset by TCU as a 24-point favorite? Yes, and that took place in September, too.
The 2009 upset was because of an injury to QB Sam Bradford and six years ago it was because of a lack of quarterback experience as well as an underrated TCU defense. That’s the thing with early season football: Injuries can mar the best laid championship plans, while team weaknesses can get exposed and taken advantage of by opposing coaches.
Notre Dame has already lost their starting QB in junior Dayne Crist, who threw 15 TDs, 7 INTs last year. He got injured in the 23-20 loss to South Florida as a 10-point favorite. The Irish are better equipped than most teams in that regard as sophomore QB Tommy Rees got time last year and started 5-1 as their starting signal caller.
But most teams aren’t as fortunate. Florida State has problems with QB E.J. Manuel and Arizona has lost senior All-Pac-10 wide receiver Juron Criner to an appendectomy. Last year at this time a home dog in college that won was UCLA, pounding Houston. You had to feel bad for the Cougars losing two quarterbacks in that game, the most devastating was Case Keenum. Just like that, the Cougars went from No. 23 in the nation to a team that will have to forge a new identity. Instead of a Heisman contender, Houston had to turn to QBs true freshmen Terrance Broadway and David Piland.
It’s also important not to read too much into major surprises, either, providing there are not significant injuries to key players. Sometimes a team pulls a huge upset not so much because it is so much more improved, but because the opponent is overvalued. Duke just won at Boston College as a +7 dog, but the Eagles have been terrible offensively with QB problems going back to last season. When you see a team that can score as a significant favorite, be careful. This was the case with TCU back in 2005, which dominated Oklahoma, then went out the next week and lost to SMU, 21-10 as a 13½ point favorite. Were the SMU Mustangs that much improved? No, as the next week SMU lost 66-8 at Texas A&M.
Early season football also features significant shifts and changes, not only because of injuries but because of ineffective play. The Chiefs have been terrible in the NFL because of a rash of injuries to key players. In college, Michigan and Pitt have new looks offensively with coaches bringing in completely different styles from last season. Michigan Coach Brady Hoke has brought in a pro-style attack while Pitt Coach Todd Graham has introduced his no-huddle, spread attack to the formerly conservative Panthers. Florida has a new look, well, junking the Urban Meyer Triple Option for Charlie Weis’ pro-style offense.
Coaches select new starters based on scrimmages before the season, but there is a huge difference between practice and real-game situations. Subtle things reveal themselves in games, such as leadership, decision-making, performance and even pressure. Some players, quarterbacks in particular, have weaknesses in those areas that don’t fully reveal themselves until game-day competition. As a result, that can throw off preseason prognostications of fans, media and the team’s coaching staff.
A great example in 2008 was Tennessee. Expectations were high for the Volunteers with a lot of returning talent. But QB Jonathan Crompton and a new offensive coordinator never were able to get things rolling and it was a disastrous season. There were new changes for last season under Coach Derek Dooley and the Vols are playing well with their passing game, though they just suffered some key wide receiver injuries.
A big early upset two years ago was USC losing at Washington in a 16-13 stunner that sent shockwaves through the Top 10. Washington had just ended a 15-game losing streak that month and had a 56-0 loss to the Trojans the previous season. The difference? It was not the same Washington team from 2008. QB Jake Locker missed most of that season, plus the Huskies had a new playbook and attitude under Coach Steve Sarkasian – the former USC offensive coordinator.
Maybe this will cheer up Notre Dame and Ohio State fans: In 2003, LSU debuted at No. 12 in the first BCS standings and rallied to win the national title. Understand that preseason expectations are not set in stone, and don’t overvalue teams simply based on one impressive game. Handicappers know that big dogs often bark in September, but that doesn’t mean they will continue to bark the rest of the season.
You can get all of Jim Feist’s fotball free winners right here at www.aasiwins.com.
