Jim Feist’s top 40 to 21 college football teams, next time 20 to 1 by Jim Feist

It’s time to kick off a new college football season beginning Thursday, Sept. 1. Here’s a look at the top 40 teams, starting with 40 to 21. Count down of down 20 to 1 will appear next week.

40. OREGON ST: The Beavers failed to make a bowl because of injuries and the offense went south. For 2011 they return senior QB Ryan Katz (17 TDs, 11 picks) and WR James Rodgers, who was granted a sixth-year of eligibility coming back from a knee injury. The No. 1 tailback spot is key, with Ryan McCants or Jordan Jenkins stepping in. Mike Riley may be more concerned about his defense than the tailback position. Beavers lost three of four starters up front, including Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year Stephen Paea.

Bettors: Tough schedule with six road games, including opener at Wisconsin. UNDER is 6-0 starting new season.

39. BYU: The Cougars started off last season with no offense, then got hot down the stretch, finishing on a 6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS run. They return senior QB Riley Nelson and sophomore QB Jake Heaps, plus four offensive line starters to a unit that averaged 168 yards rushing. Brandon Doman has been promoted to offensive coordinator and wants to have an explosive attack. Offense scored 55, 49, 40, 16 and 52 points in their last five games. The defense gave up 21.6 ppg (32nd in the nation) and looks solid again.

Bettors: Only concern is schedule opening at Ole Miss, at Texas and home against Utah.

38. SO. FLORIDA: The Bulls (8-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) started slow but made it to their sixth straight bowl and first under Coach Skip Holtz. They went 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS to end the season after the coaching staff made some changes on offense behind mobile junior QB B.J. Daniels. The offense averaged 24.1 points, 144.8 yards rushing and 164 passing. Junior RB Demetris Murray (533 yards, 4.4 ypc) is back along with transfers RB Darrell Scott (from Colorado) and RB Dontae Aycock (from Auburn). The defense (No. 22 nationally) should be strong again, such as in the Miami win forcing three turnovers.

Bettors: USF on 8-3 UNDER run and 27-10 SU (18-13 ATS) at home last six years. Open at Notre Dame.

37. PENN ST: Joe Paterno is still there, off a 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS season. The offense was erratic because of injuries and young QBs. The key is senior RB Stephfon Green, who has game breaking speed, but hasn’t put it all together since his sophomore season. Only three road games (Temple, Indiana, Northwestern) in first 10. Host Alabama (Week 2) and Nebraska (Nov. 12).

Bettors: Penn State is 2-11 SU/ATS last 13 as a dog, 15-10 SU, 13-10-1 ATS last 25 on the road. At home, 39-6 SU last 45.

36. NAVY: Midshipmen are off a 9-4 SU, 7-5 ATS campaign as the ground game was sixth nationally with 284.8 ypg. Defense was undersized but very good, giving up 22 ppg. Plenty of talent returns in 2011. Must replace option QB Ricky Dobbs, but senior QB Kriss Proctor saw plenty of action, rushing for 304 yards (a whopping 9.5 ypg)! Defense allowed just 23.3 points per game and has senior defensive end Jabaree Tuani.

Bettors: Navy is 55-38-1 against the spread the last eight seasons.

35. ILLINOIS: The Illini (7-6 SU, 8-4 ATS) surprised last season under Ron Zook. This offense was mostly running, averaging 32.5 points, 151 yards passing and 246.1 yards rushing per game and returns sophomore QB Nathan Scheelhaase (17 TDs, 8 INTS, 1,825 yards) who rushed for 868 yards. Illinois led the Big Ten in rushing (246.1 ypg) for the third time in the last five years. The secondary returns three starters, but with Corey Liuget leaving early for the NFL and the loss of end Clay Nurse the defensive front needs work.

Bettors: Zook is 9-7 SU/6-10 ATS his last 16 games as a home favorite.

34. AUBURN: The Tigers (14-0 SU/10-3 ATS) off remarkable national title season for Coach Gene Chizik and brilliant OC Gus Malzahn, the architect of wide-open spread attacks. Offense averaged 41.2 ppg. Heavy losses to NFL, but there’s talent with junior QB Barrett Trotter and junior WR Emory Blake (554 yards). The ground game No. 5 in the country with the help of 5-9 soph RB Michael Dyer (1,093 yds, 6.0 ypc) and junior RB Onterio McCalebb (810, 8.5 ypc). RT Brandon Mosley is the only returning O-line starter, but freshman OG Christian Westerman is a top prospect. The LB corps needs two new starters and DTs have to be replaced.

Bettors: Auburn 20-10 SU (17-13 ATS) last seven years on the road. Surviving October without a loss unlikely. Bama rematch a challenge.

33. PITT: New coach Todd Graham running version of the spread offense he had at Tulsa. Lots of talent in junior QB Tino Sunseri (16 TDs, 9 INTs), junior RB Ray Graham (922 yards rushing, 6.2 ypc) and 6-foot-5 junior WR Mike Shanahan (589 yards). Offense balanced and potentially potent, but defense lost its top players.

Bettors: Only major concern is schedule, playing at Iowa and home against Notre Dame back-to-back in September.

32. CLEMSON: The Tigers could have a new look offensively: Coach Dabo Swinney hired Tulsa’s Chad Morris as OC. Tulsa averaged 41.4 ppg last year. Sophomore QB Tajh Boyd (4 TDs, 3 INTs, 329 yards) started the bowl game, a 31-26 loss to South Florida. Offense returns junior RB Andre Ellington (686 yards, 5.8 ypc). Defense was very strong, allowing 18.8 ppg (13th in the country) and returns several key starters.

Bettors: The Tigers carry a 15-2 run UNDER the total into the new season.

31. BAYLOR: The good news for 2011 is that junior QB Robert Griffin III (22 TDs, 8 INTs, 3,501 yards) returns. A dynamic player, Griffin was second on the team in rushing with 635 yards, (4.3 ypc). Throw in senior RB Terrance Ganaway (295 yards, 6.4 ypc) and senior WR Kendall Wright (952 yards) and this offense is loaded. Eight starters return on offense on a group that averaged 31.2 ppg, 280.7 yards passing, 194.6 rushing. The defense was terrible, which is why new coordinator Phil Bennett comes aboard along with three decent JUCO transfers for the secondary.

Bettors: Baylor is 6-42 SU, 17-30-1 ATS its last 48 games as an underdog.

30. MICHIGAN: The Wolverines (7-6 SU/3-9 ATS) made a bowl, but it was an embarrassing season. Michigan played no defense in losing six of last eight. But offense has a new style with head coach Brady Hoke, OC Al Borges and 10 starters back. Borges likes the wide-open, pro-style, West Coast attack. Last year’s offense was ranked 13th (250 ypg, 35.2 ppg) and returns junior QB Denard Robinson (18 TDs, 12 INTs, 2,570 yds). New four-man front (instead of 3-3-5) under DC Greg Mattison, ex of Baltimore Ravens. Nine starters back led by senior NT Mike Martin.

Bettors: Michigan is 12-12 SU/10-14 ATS their last 24 road games.

29. ARKANSAS: Bobby Petrino lost senior QB Ryan Mallett (32 TDs, 12 INTs) on an offense that was fourth in the nation in passing (333.7 ypg) and 36.5 ppg. Junior Tyler Wilson (453 yds, TDs, 3 INTs) replaced Mallett against Auburn and threw for 332 yards and 4 TDs. He has experienced targets in senior WR Joe Adams (813 yds), 6-3 senior WR Jarius Wright (788), their top two receivers. While a pass-first attack, junior RB Knile Davis impressed with 1,322 yards (6.5 ypc) second in the SEC in rushing, plus 13 TDs. The defensive front was ninth nationally in sacks.

Bettors: Arkansas is on a 6-2 run OVER and 6-1 SU/ATS its last seven games.

28. MISS ST: The Bulldogs (9-4 SU/7-5 ATS) impressed, averaging 29 points and 214.8 yards rushing, making a bowl (smacking Michigan, 52-14). Throw in wins over Florida and Georgia and Dan Mullen has this program overachieving. They rotated two QBs and return senior Chris Relf (13 TDs, 6 INTs, 1,789 yards passing, 713 rushing) and sophomore Tyler Russell (5 TDs 6 INTs), rarely throwing the football. That ground game was No. 16 in the nation and returns senior RB Vick Ballard (968 yds, 5.2 ypc), their top rusher. The real surprise was the defense (19.8 ppg). The linebacking corps lost its top players, plus their defensive coordinator went to Texas, so co-coordinators Chris Wilson and Geoff Collins step in.

Bettors: Seven starters return led by a terrific line. They are heading in the right direction.

27. W. VIRGINIA: Bill Stewart stepped down and Dana Holgorsen, who came over from Texas Tech, became head coach. Stewart went 28-12 in three seasons but failed to earn a BCS berth. The Mountaineers have a speedy team (9-4 SU, 8-3 ATS) with good balance and experience on offense led by junior QB Geno Smith (24 TDs, 7 picks, 2,763 yds). The O-line looks solid again, led by senior C Eric Jobe, averaging 162 yards rushing. Holgorsen brings the wide-open passing attack from Texas Tech under Mike Leach. The passing game has 5-foot-9 junior playmaking WR Tavon Austin (58 rec, 787 yds). The defense allowed just 13.5 ppg, third in the nation, but lost seven starters.

Bettors: West Virginia is on a 12-5 run UNDER the total, but that was under the old run-first offense.

26. TENNESSEE: The Vols (6-7) had a rough start for new Coach Derek Dooley, but the offense got on a roll. Sophomore QB Tyler Bray (18 TDs, 10 INTs, 1,849 yards) is back along with senior RB Tauren Poole (1,034 yards, 5.1 ypc), so the offense should have more balance. The Vols averaged 27 points and ranked 30th in the nation in passing, but 105th in rushing. The defense (25.1 ppg) was great down the stretch and the secondary has talent, led by star safety Janzen Jackson.

Bettors: The Vols are 19-17 SU/21-14-1 ATS on the road the last seven seasons and on a 9-3 run OVER the total.

25. HOUSTON: Quarterback U! Houston is a powerhouse offensive team under fourth-year head coach Kevin Sumlin, off a 5-7 SU, 3-7-1 ATS season of bad luck, losing two QBs. For 2011, they return senior QB Case Keenum (5 TDs, 5 INTs), backup Cotton Turner and sophomore QB David Piland (24 TDs, 14 INTs). Even with all the injuries this offense averaged 37.7 points and 327.3 yards passing, No. 5 nationally. The offense is loaded behind senior RB Bryce Beall and senior WRPatrick Edwards. The defense, though, is another story, (32.2 ppg allowed), but there is hope with returning LBs Marcus McGraw, Sammy Brown and Phillip Steward. The secondary lacks experience.

Bettors: The Cougars are 26-8 SU, 18-11-1 ATS at home and may be a team to look at OVER the total.

24. MIAMI, FL: The Canes (7-6 SU, 4-8 ATS) fell apart down the stretch, despite making a bowl, with the firing of Coach Randy Shannon. So Miami has a new coach in Al Golden from Temple along with new OC Jedd Fisch. The Hurricanes ran a pro-style attack last season, but will look to run the football more to cut down on turnovers. They have two QBs in senior QB Jacory Harris (14 TDs, 15 INTs) and soph QB Stephen Morris (7 TDs, 9 INTs). The defense was very good, allowing 19.7 ppg (21st in the nation) and adds All-American DE Anthony Chickillo, a top recruit.

Bettors: Miami is on an 8-2-1 run UNDER the total and brings back an influx of juniors on defense.

23: TEXAS A&M: Head Coach Mike Sherman is a fan of a balanced offense, averaging 31.2 points, 276.8 yards passing and 165 rushing. Texas A&M went 9-4 SU, 7-5 ATS campaign, off of a share of the Big 12 South Division title and a Cotton Bowl appearance. Ten starters are back on offense, eight on the defense. The offense returns junior QB Ryan Tannehill (13 TDs, 6 INTs) along with senior RB Cyrus Gray (1,133 yards, 5.7 ypc). The defense (21.9 ppg allowed) loses All-American Von Miller to the NFL.

Bettors: A&M carries a 6-1 SU/ATS run into the new season and recruited some talented JUCO transfers.

22: TEXAS: The Longhorns (5-7 SU, 3-9 ATS) were awful in 2010. Junior QB Garrett Gilbert (10 TDs, 17 INTs) was a turnover machine, so some new spring formations have been put in for better play-action passing for him. Two starters are back in the backfield, while the defense led the Big 12 and was sixth in the nation in yardage allowed. This defense looks tough, despite a new coordinator in Manny Diaz. He has a strong LB corps, led by soph Demarco Cobbs and fiery senior Emmanuel Acho (a second-team All-Big 12 selection in 2010), while 6-foot-5 senior DT Kheeston Randall anchors a solid line.

Bettors: Texas is 63-15 SU, 43-33-1 ATS the last six seasons and 8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS its last 13 as a dog.

21. VA TECH: The Hokies (11-3 SU, 10-3 ATS) are off another terrific season for Coach Frank Beamer. The job of running the offense will lie in the huge hands of Logan Thomas, whose 6-foot-6, 242-pound frame is loaded with talent. Beamer likes balance on offense and the backfield has speedy junior TB David Wilson and was the third leading rusher (619 yds, 5.5 ypc). A young Tech defense, playing seven new starters, gave up some big plays, but allowed just 19.1 ppg (16th in the nation).

Bettors: V-Tech is on a 6-1 run UNDER the total and a stellar 15-6 SU, 14-6-1 ATS on the road the last four years.

You can get all of Jim Feist’s FREE NCAAF winners right here at www.aasiwins.com.