NFL Football Preseason whole different ballgame by The Gaming Today’s Ted Sevransky

Betting preseason NFL games is an entirely different animal compared to betting regular season games.

When first beginning to wager on these contests, it is very important to recognize these differences. By following simple guidelines you can make betting preseason NFL a profitable part of your wagering portfolio, year after year.

Don’t confuse
regular vs preseason football

Indianapolis has won at least 10 games every season since 2002, the single most consistent winning franchise in the NFL during that span. But since 2005 preseason, Indy is the most consistent losing team in August.

The numbers don’t lie. Indy is in the midst of a 4-23 SU, 7-19-1 ATS run in the preseason. This past weekend, we saw the Colts get bet up from a four point underdog for the opener in St. Louis all the way up to +7.

It didn’t matter. Every anti-Colts better cashed their tickets with relative ease as the Colts trailed 23-3 by halftime and never got any closer.

With Peyton Manning getting limited playing time (potentially none this preseason recovering from neck surgery), head coach Jim Caldwell, like Tony Dungy before him, has concentrated on developing quality depth at the expense of winning. Given Indy’s 27 percent ATS success rate during this span, it’s clear betting markets haven’t reacted enough to their repeated point spread failures.

The Eagles, too, have been one of the NFL’s most successful regular season teams to bet on over the last decade. Despite the regular season success, Philly head coach Andy Reid hasn’t enjoyed a single winning preseason ATS during that span.

The Detroit Lions won all four preseason games in 2008, going 3-0-1 ATS in the process while outscoring their opponents by a combined 80-32, the highest point differential in the league during that span. The Lions then lost all 16 regular season games; the worst team in modern NFL history.

Last year, it was San Francisco who went 4-0 in the preseason, followed up by a 6-10 campaign, a third place finish in the dismal NFC West and another UNDER cash for season win / total bettors. I think you get my point!

Do your homework!

Find accurate local news sources, a fairly easy thing to do in the age of the internet. Learn what the player rotations are going to be – not just the starters. In most instances, other than the ‘regular season walkthrough’ in Week 3, the starters will not play after the first quarter. But will second stringers get the majority of playing time, or the ‘scrubs’ fighting playing the whole game for the last few roster spots?

The majority of point spread outcomes are usually decided after halftime. Finding out who will be in the game during this crucial time is paramount! Undrafted rookie free agents tend to be at the bottom of the totem pole – these guys will often cost you the cover when getting significant playing time all over the field in the fourth quarter.

Know QB rotations

Any team that I am betting on in August needs experience at the second and/or third string QB as a prerequisite for my wager. I also like to bet against rookie QB’s who will be seeing substantial second half action playing against NFL level talent for the first time.

Quality third stringers with NFL starting experience are plentiful around the league. Look for guys like Brady Quinn (Denver), Drew Stanton (Detroit), Luke McCown (Jacksonville), Kyle Boller (Oakland) and Charlie Batch (Pittsburgh).

On the other end of the spectrum, third stringers like Levi Brown (Buffalo), Tyrod Taylor (Baltimore) Nathan Enderle (Chicago), TJ Yates (Houston), Greg McElroy and Drew Willy (New York Jets), or Scott Tolzien (San Diego) are unlikely to generate much offense through the passing game.

Weaker quarterbacks just won’t put up the points you need with the game on the line in the fourth quarter, and they might cost you a touchdown with their bad reads leading to costly interceptions. That’s exactly what San Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick did with his back-to-back fourth quarter interceptions against New Orleans this past weekend.

Know your coaches

Some coaches really emphasize winning in the preseason, setting the tone for victories once the regular season begins. Detroit’s Jim Schwartz falls into that category. Now in his third season as the Lions head coach, Schwartz’s teams have gone 7-2 SU and ATS in the preseason.

Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin took over as the Steelers head coach prior to the 2007 season. Even after a poorly played loss to Washington in this year’s preseason opener, his Steelers have gone 13-5 SU, 11-6-1 ATS in August.

On the other end Philadelphia’s Reid hasn’t put together a single winning ATS preseason record in the last 11 years. Indy’s Jim Caldwell certainly falls into the same category and the Chiefs’ Todd Haley is the latest poster child for preseason ATS failures. Haley is 1-8 SU, 0-8-1 ATS in his nine previous preseason tilts after KC’s 25-0 shutout home loss to the Bucs this past weekend.

Coaches desperate
for victories

Coming off a bad season, coaches often want to set a tone of winning right from August. New coaches do as well. Look no further than the Redskins domination of the Steelers in their opener last weekend as a prime example.

Washington’s Mike Shanahan was intent on setting a winning tone from the get-go after last year’s debacle. Pittsburgh’s Tomlin had no similar concerns. No surprise, then, that a tie game at halftime turned into a comfortable Redskins victory.

First year, first time head coaches like Carolina’s Ron Rivera tend to be good ‘bet-on’ coaches in the preseason, particularly at home. Rivera’s desire to spark some positive momentum from his fan base was on full display as the Panthers beat up the Giants last Saturday.

Watch for the following profitable situation as the preseason progresses. Coaches that are on the hot seat after losing a preseason game or two have a strong tendency to pull out all the stops for a victory in front of the home crowd in Weeks 3 or 4, in an effort to placate the fans.

Bet facts, not opinions

In the regular season, I wager on games where we feel the betting markets are giving one team too much credit or another team not enough. These are my opinions – strong enough to risk my hard earned dollars to support.

In the preseason, I’m betting on information only. In most cases, the coaches themselves are nice enough to tell me exactly what they intend to do. A coach who wants to “evaluate his depth” in any particular ballgame is generally not worth wagering on.

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