Joseph D'Amico
Chip Chirimbes
Chip Chirimbes the Las Vegas Hilton Handicapping Champion has been a mainstay in the Sports Handicapping industry for 30 years.
Bobby Conn
One of the sharpest minds in the handicapping business.
Info Plays
Larry Cook began betting sports in the early 80's and took his fair share of bumps and bruises before he learned what it takes to win consistently as a sports bettor.
Rocky Atkinson
My Handicapping and Betting Philosophy: I use my own unique power ratings for each sport along with trend analysis, stats and line value.
NFL Final Four: Will ‘overs’ continue to pay by The Gaming Todays Ted Sevransky
Teddy Covers gives his lowdown on the NFL playoffs.
“Conference Championship Sunday” just doesn’t have the same ring to it as ‘Final Four.’
And with exactly four games remaining in the NFL season (don’t forget that Pro Bowl), to go along with the four teams still alive for a Super Bowl title, I’ll stick with the ‘Final Four’ motif a full two months before March Madness begins.
First, let’s take a look at what has transpired through the first two weekends of NFL playoff action. After an opening weekend that went 3-1 to the under, all four playoff games were over thanks to some wild fourth quarters in Jets-Patriots and Bears-Seahawks games.
Much like the regular season (to the chagrin of many bookmakers in town), saw over bettors making out like bandits!
All eight straight up winners this postseason have cashed against the spread. This is nothing new or different. Last year, the SU playoff winners went 10-1 or 10-0-1 ATS (depending on whether you got -3 with New Orleans against Minnesota early in the week, or laid -3.5 on game day).
It was the same story in 2008, when the SU winners went 10-1 ATS; the lone loser coming with Pittsburgh -6.5 in the Super Bowl over Arizona. In ’07, those SU winners went 8-2-1 ATS only because New England failed to cover in both home wins on its way to the Super Bowl against the Giants.
So, moving forward, the handicapping thought process should be fairly simple. Pick the SU winner and expect to cash a winning ticket against the spread. And with both championship games bouncing around the key number of -3, even a rare non-covering result has a solid shot of ending up a push.
The TV talking heads love to say how important home field is in the playoffs. Of course, you already know that’s complete nonsense. Home teams are 3-5 SU and ATS so far this year in the playoffs; a money losing proposition to support.
This is nothing new or different. Last year, home teams went 6-3-1 or 6-4 ATS (again, depending on that Vikings-Saints line). In ’08, home teams went 5-5 ATS. In ’07, they went 3-7 ATS.
Think seeding matters? Think again! Last year’s Super Bowl matchup between 1 seeds New Orleans and Indy was very much the exception. As we saw in ’08, the 6 seeds are just as live as the 1’s. Both 6’s won twice on the road that year to reach the conference championships, just as they have this year.
In ’07, the 5 seed Giants won three road games and the Super Bowl against higher seeded foes. In ’05, the 6 seed Steelers also won three road games and were the Super Bowl favorites in their win and cover over #1 seed Seattle.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Heinz Field, Pittsburgh
(Game 1: Jets, 22-17)
Just like last week, every game this coming weekend is a rematch from the regular season. The Jets and Steelers met at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh in Week 15. The spot favored New York, who came into the game desperate for a victory after back-to-back losses against division rivals New England and Miami put its playoff hopes in jeopardy.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh came into the game riding a four-game winning streak, including consecutive divisional wins over the Ravens and Bengals, leaving them prone to a flat performance. In addition, Pittsburgh was playing without their true ‘impact’ defender when Troy Polamalu was unable to suit up.
New York got a 97-yard kick return touchdown from Brad Smith on the first play of the game. The Steelers bounced back strong, outscoring New York 17-3 for the next 2 1/2 quarters to take a seven point lead.
But Mark Sanchez played mistake free football, leading the Jets on a pair of second half scoring drives to take the lead. Jason Taylor tackled Steelers running back Mewelde Moore in the end zone for a safety. And New York’s defense hung on for one final stop after Ben Roethlisberger drove the Steelers 82 yards down the field in the final two minutes, only to lose 22-17 with three consecutive incompletions in the end zone.
Pittsburgh won the yardage battle by more than 100 and took the time of possession. The Steelers outgained the Jets on a ‘yards per play’ basis. Both teams played turnover free football. But Jets special teams score and defensive score were the difference makers, allowing them to steal a road victory.
Money poured in on the Jets in the hours before kickoff of that late December game. At one stage during the week, savvy line shoppers were able to find New York +7, with the prevailing number sitting at +6. After it was announced that Palomalu was going to sit, the number dropped to -3.5 — a tough result for the books when the Jets won outright. The game went over 36.
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Soldier Field, Chicago
(Game 1: Bears, 20-17)
Green Bay and Chicago played twice this season, like all divisional opponents in the NFL. Both meetings were tight, down-to-the-wire contests. In Week 3, on “Monday Night Football,” the Packers were 3-point road favorites at Soldier Field; the exact same point spread that we’re looking at this week.
Again, like the Steelers-Jets meeting described above, the box score didn’t tell the whole story. Green Bay won the yardage battle (by more than 100 yards), the time of possession battle and the yards-per-play battle. But Green Bay allowed a Devin Hester punt return TD in the fourth quarter; a crucial special teams miscue.
Driving for the potential game winning score, the Packers committed their second turnover, setting up Robbie Gould to kick the game winning field goal for the Bears as time expired. Green Bay set a franchise record with (and NFL season high) 18 penalties. The final score stayed under the closing total of 45.5.
(Game 2: Packers, 10-3)
The second meeting was another sloppy, low scoring affair that stayed well under the closing total of 43.5. Chicago had already clinched the division and the 2 seed by Week 17, but head coach Lovie Smith made it clear he wasn’t going to rest his starters. Meanwhile, the Packers were in a true ‘must win’ situation with a loss sending them home.
The Green Bay offense was not in sync with 16 carries from the running back trio of James Starks, Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn producing only 39 yards. The Packers trailed 3-0 at halftime with the first eight possessions producing six punts and two turnovers.
In the fourth quarter, Aaron Rodgers led Green Bay on the game winning TD. The Packers defense was dominant, sacking Jay Cutler six times while holding Chicago to a single field goal.
Championship note:
There’s only been one previous home underdog during the last decade. Arizona was a 3.5 point dog to Philly in the ’08 NFC Title Game on its way to a SU victory and subsequent trip to the Super Bowl. This year the Bears have opened as three point home dogs to the Packers.
