Joseph D'Amico

BRACKETOLOGY…LATEST UPDATE by the Gold Sheets Bruce Marshall

“Joe Lunardi Time” is upon us as we move into mid-January and begin to

project forward for how the NCAA Tournament might be shaping up, now just

two months away.

As mentioned just before Christmas, there is a value in this exercise far beyond

filling out any brackets two months early. As always, it’s a chance to gauge where

the season has gone to this point, and get a feel for where these various teams are

fitting into the national picture. And by this stage we can get some idea of a team’s

trajectory by seeing how it compared to the last update.

The one change of note in this year’s NCAA Tourney is the addition of

three more at-large teams, bringing the field to 68 teams. There will now be

four “play-in games” (which the NCAA is calling the “First Four”) at Dayton instead

of just one between the two lowest-seeded teams as in recent years. This season,

the four lowest at-large seeds will play for a pair of 12 seeds when the subregionals

commence March 17 and 18, while the four lowest-seeded teams will

contest for a pair of 16 seeds.

Following are our latest Big Dance projections. Straight-up records and RPI

numbers are through January 12. We’ll continue to periodically update our

Bracketology via TGS website and TGS Hoops issues in the coming weeks.

EAST REGIONAL (Newark)

At Charlotte…

1 Duke (SUR 15-1, RPI-1) vs. 16 Jackson State (8-8, 208)/Nicholls State (7-

5, 135)…We don’t have to worry about an undefeated season anymore at Duke

after Wednesday night’s loss at Florida State, but for the moment that shouldn’t put

a top seed for the Blue Devils or a sub-regional assignment at preferred Charlotte

in much jeopardy. One of the aforementioned 16 vs. 16 play-in games is almost

assuredly going to involve the SWAC champion, which at the moment we project

to be Jackson State. The Southland champ could also be involved in a play-in; that

race lacks definition at the moment, and it’s only a provisional nod we give to the

Colonels from Nicholls State.

8 Cincinnati (16-1, 20) vs. 9 Butler (11-5, 40)…Perhaps we have placed Cincy

a bit too low, but we’re projecting things to get a lot tougher for the Bearcats in the

rugged Big East; the schedule soon gets much, much more difficult. As for Butler,

it seemed to straighten things out after an early rough patch as HC Brad Stevens

looked to fill the shoes of Gordon Hayward, although a recent 24-point loss at UWMilwaukee

remains a puzzler. A tough non-league slate should help with the RPI

in case the Bulldogs are forced to take the at-large route to the Big Dance.

At Chicago…

4 Michigan State (11-5, 26) vs. 13 Rider (12-5, 91)…We’ve seen Michigan

State hit early and mid-season bumps in the road before, then recover and gain

momentum heading into the Big Dance. We suspect the same things are going on

this season. Perhaps Tuesday’s rousing win over Wisconsin will prove the trigger

to get the Spartans moving in the right direction. Meanwhile, the Metro-Atlantic

appears more up for grabs than it has been in recent years when Siena was

dominating action. Right now, Rider (with impressive non-league wins over

Southern Cal and TCU) and Fairfield are setting the pace in the league that will, as

always, decide things at its MAAC Tourney at Albany in early March.

5 Missouri (14-2, 31) vs. 12 Maryland (10-5, 46)/St. John’s (10-5, 72)…Mizzou

can certainly make a case for protected-seed status, although a No. 5 and a trip to

the Chicago for the sub-regional would probably suit the Tigers just fine. We’re

also wondering how the Selection Committee is going to grade the Big XII

compared to the other major conferences. Both Maryland and St. John’s are sitting

on the periphery; the Terps have started 0-2 in league action, and we would warn

Gary Williams right now that no sub-.500 ACC team is likely to get near the front of

the at-large queue. That might not necessarily be the case in the Big East, where

if the “Steve Lavin Revolution” at St. John’s can finish in the upper half of the

conference table, we expect they’ll get a call from the Selection Committee.

BRACKETOLOGY…LATEST UPDATE

By Bruce Marshall, Goldsheet.com, Editor

(continued on page 2)

At Cleveland…

2 Pittsburgh (16-1, 7) vs. 15 Hampton (11-4, 136)…Will this be the year that

Jamie Dixon finally steers the Panthers into the Final Four? Pitt certainly appears

up to dealing with the Big East, but some tough Panther contingents have fallen flat

in March before. MEAC frontrunner Hampton might not be an easy out; remember,

the Pirates have some history in the Dance (remember HC Steve Merfeld getting

a merry ride from his team after the Pirates upset Iowa State in a 15 over 2 shocker

back in 2001?). Note Hampton’s non-conference victim’s list includes George

Washington, Georgia State, and Colorado State…not bad.

7 Florida (13-3, 22) vs. 10 Kansas State (11-5, 33)…Things figure to get better

soon at K-State with F Curtis Kelly (though nursing a sore shin) back from

suspension, but it has been a very choppy ride over the past two months for the

Wildcats, who would be well-advised to not drop many more games at home like

Wednesday’s loss vs. Colorado. At the moment, KSU is no sure bet to make the

Dance. Billy Donovan’s Florida knows all about that, narrowly missing out in 2008

& ‘09 and not having won in the tourney since the ‘07 title game vs. Ohio State.

Unlike football this past autumn, SEC hoops is definitely tilted toward the Eastern

half this season.

At Denver…

3 BYU (16-1, 4) vs. 14 College of Charleston (11-5, 76)…We’ll worry about

placing BYU playing in a Thursday-Saturday draw later on; remember, due to LDS

restrictions, the Cougs are prohibited from playing on Sundays. Denver, however,

is a Thursday-Saturday sub-regional, and if the Cougs keep winning, and G

Jimmer Fredette keeps pumping home 40+ as he did Tuesday at Utah (when

scoring 47), BYU is likely to be a protected seed on Selection Sunday. Whoever

draws Bobby Cremins’ College of Charleston had better beware; the Cougars

return a veteran core from last year’s CBI Tourney team featuring G Andrew

Goudelock, have won at Tennessee, and played Maryland, North Carolina, and

Clemson very close on the road in pre-SoCon play.

6 Temple (11-3, 30) vs. 11 Washington State (12-4, 43)…Be prepared to hear

a lot of questions about why Temple hasn’t been able to win an NCAA tourney

game the past three years under Fran Dunphy. We’re a bit perplexed, too, but

suspect that drought could end this season. Wazzu recovered from losses at

UCLA and USC in the opening weekend of Pac-10 play to sweep the Oregon

schools in Pullman, but the Cougs are going to have to do better than simply hold

serve at home in their modest conference to stay in the at-large mix.

SOUTHEAST REGIONAL (New Orleans)

At Cleveland…

1 Ohio State (17-0, 2) vs. 16 Wagner (8-7, 137)/Long Beach State (7-8,

102)…We suspect Ohio State’s rather subdued non-conference slate has

something to do with the Buckeyes’ still-spotless straight-up mark, but some

recent close calls vs. modest Big Ten opposition suggest that Thad Matta’s squad

will not be among the unbeaten much longer. The Northeast has sent teams into

the old play-in format, and now with two 16 vs. 16 games, we expect the NEC to be

involved again; Wagner is the provisional pick at the moment. Meanwhile, this could

mark a new low for the Big West to get involved in a play-in game, but it could happen

this season if a team such as Long Beach wins the conference tourney in Anaheim.

8 Florida State (11-5, 67) vs. 9 Gonzaga (11-5, 35)…We weren’t sure about

Florida State until that Wednesday night upset over Duke, but that win over the

Blue Devils could turn out to be a valuable chip to cash for the Noles on Selection

Sunday. As for Gonzaga, it has straightened out since hitting several bumps in the

road in the first month. Getting swingman Elias Harris healthy has proven a plus,

and the Zags’ RPI is solid because of another tough non-league slate, with the win

over Marquette is looking better and better. Mark Few’s team figures to pile up a

lot of wins in this year’s WCC en route to a 13th straight Big Dance appearance.

At Denver…

4 Texas A&M (14-1, 21) vs. 13 Princeton (11-4, 71)…Mark Turgeon’s A&M

made it into the second round last March before getting knocked out by Purdue,

and a quick early start this season gives hope in Aggieland of better things to come

this March. Wednesday’s big win over Oklahoma State confirms A&M’s status as

one of the Big XII’s elite this season. The Ivy league is looking like it will come down

to a 2-team race between Harvard & Princeton. We’ll flip a coin and opt for the

Tigers (just barely) until our next update.

5 Notre Dame (14-3, 14) vs. 12 Old Dominion (12-3, 49)…The main concerns

we have about Notre Dame and most of the projected Big East “Dancers” is how

the league might beat itself up this season with few if any breathers in the league

slate. We think the Irish and their senior-dominated lineup featuring former

Mississippi State G Ben Hansbrough & F Tim Abromaitis can hold up, although a

recent hamstring injury to F Carelton Scott is a concern. The Colonial race is

shaping up to be a competitive affair, with Hofstra and James Madison looking like

top challengers, but we are not sure about the CAA as a multi-bid league this

season, and suspect ODU would have the best chance of any to nab an at-large,

if needed. By the way, should this matchup materialize, it would be a rematch of

a thrilling first-round game last March won by the Monarchs.

At Tampa…

2 Kentucky (13-3, 8) vs. 15 Coastal Carolina (14-2, 108)…UK’s new group of

diaper dandies led by this year’s frosh stars F Terrence Jones & G Brandon Knight

doesn’t look quite as menacing as last year’s crew featuring John Wall and

DeMarcus Cousins, but the Cats still might be the best the SEC has to offer. Cliff

Ellis’ Coastal Carolina would be no pushover; remember, the Chanticleers (isn’t it

neat just to say that name?) won 28 games and made it into the NIT last season,

although we’re not sure what CC proved in a very soft non-league slate.

7 Georgetown (12-5, 12) vs. 10 Richmond (13-4, 44)…Keep an eye on

Georgetown, dropping fast after losing 4 of its last 5. Big East sources suspect the

reliance of this Hoya bunch on perimeter work (more so than any of JT III’s

previous editions) has put G’town at some real risk in the rugged Big East, and at

the moment the Hoyas look to be the potential first casualty of their brutal league.

Even “Big Jawn” himself is fretting on his ESPN 980 AM radio show with Doc

Walker. We’re not sure how deep the Selection Committee goes in the A-10 besides

Temple, but it should be at least a two-bid league with Richmond likely earning a

return appearance after making it to the Dance for HC Chris Mooney a year ago.

At Washington, D.C…

3 Connecticut (13-2, 10) vs. 14 Austin Peay (12-6, 104)…UConn is becoming

a bit more than just Kemba Walker taking on all comers in 1-on-5 situations. A gift

that will keep on giving for the Huskies through Selection Sunday is that win during

Thanksgiving week at the Maui Invitational. As for the Ohio Valley race, it looks as

if Austin Peay is beginning to separate from the pack, and the Guvs appear the

early choice to be favored in the conference tourney at nearby Nashville March 2-5.

6 UCF (13-1, 24) vs. 11 Baylor (12-3, 65)…With an opening appearing in C-USA

as Memphis loses traction, emerging UCF has charged through and now looks to

be the odds-on favorite to win the league. New HC Donnie Jones might be setting

himself up for a major job very soon, although the Golden Knights have the

appearance of a program that might be able to make that claim in the not-toodistant

future. Maybe Jones sticks around Orlando for a while. Baylor’s RPI has

been hurt by a soft non-league slate, and it has been a distraction-filled first two

months in Waco. But the Bears seem to be steadying themselves for another run

at the Dance, although another trip to the Elite Eight looks unlikely.

SOUTHWEST REGIONAL (San Antonio)

At Tulsa…

1 Kansas (15-0, 3) vs. 16 American (11-5, 116)…Bill Self could be excused for

being worried about sub-regional action after surprise KO’s in recent years by the

likes of Bucknell & Northern Iowa. This year, KU appears on course for a top

regional seed, although we doubt the Jayhawks are in any first-round danger this

year. We still think American, with Vanderbilt transfer Charles Hinkle recently

eligible, is going to win the Patriot, although a case can also be made for Bucknell

as the team to beat in the loop.

8 Illinois (13-4, 27) vs. 9 Louisville (13-3, 28)…Both of these high-profile

programs might be expecting better seeds than this, but we don’t think either is an

elite team in their respective leagues. Illinois’ recent loss at Penn State confirms

as much, and Louisville is also starting to take its lumps in the Big East, as it did

Wednesday night against Villanova.

At Tampa….

4 Vanderbilt (12-3, 18) vs. 13 Ball State (9-4, 93)..We still think Vandy is a team

to watch, with a lot of depth and versatility, size and quickness, plus a shrewd HC

in Kevin Stallings. How the Dores’ “bigs” Festus Ezeli and Steve Tchiengang

progress in the next six weeks will determine if Vandy can be considered a

longshot Final Four entry when March rolls around. As for the MAC race, it is a

complete jumble, although Billy Taylor’s Ball State Cardinals play the best defense

in the league, which should give them a chance to survive the MAC Tourney in

Cleveland. We’d also keep an eye on Charlie Coles’ Miami-Ohio RedHawks, who

won’t fear any MAC team after a pre-league slate featuring Duke, Ohio State,

Kansas, San Diego State, and Cincinnati (whew!).

5 West Virginia (10-4, 19) vs. 12 UAB (11-3, 50)…We’re still not sure how good

this West Virginia contingent really is this season. Bob Huggins probably doesn’t

have another Final Four team on his hands, and we suspect the Mountaineers

could get knocked around a bit in the Big East. This five seed for WVU might be

a bit ambitious on our part. Meanwhile, C-USA looks like it could be a multi-bid

league this season, even if Memphis is slumping. Mike Davis’ UAB could finally be

ready to slip into the Dance after narrow misses in recent seasons, although the

Blazers could have used a few more hefty wins in pre-league play to help their RPI

(wins over Arkansas and Virginia Commonwealth are okay, but perhaps not enough).

At Chicago…

2 Purdue (15-1, 5) vs. 15 North Texas (13-3, 105)…Purdue is used to playing

without injured Robbie Hummel (who has missed almost a full year after two knee

injuries) and has adjusted seamlessly to his absence. It helps to have two of the

premier seniors in the country, C JaJaun Johnson and G E’Twaun Moore, still in

the fold, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see the Boilermakers overtake Ohio State

in the Big Ten. The Sun Belt race is beginning to get a little definition, with Mike

Jarvis’ Florida Atlantic emerging as a contender, although we like the recent March

pedigree of Johnny Jones’ North Texas a little better.

7 Arizona (14-3, 29) vs. 10 UNLV (13-4, 23)…We’re not really sure how good

Arizona or any team from the Pac-10 might be this campaign, but there’s a good

bet the Wildcats get back to the Big Dance after their 25-year tourney run was

ended last season. UNLV has been wobbling a bit lately, although we expect Lon

Kruger’s Rebels will eventually stabilize as the Mountain West’s third team behind

San Diego State and BYU. UNLV can also remove any doubt about an invite by

taking care of business on its home court at the Thomas & Mack Center when the

MWC Tourney rolls around in March.

At Charlotte…

3 Villanova (15-1, 15) vs. 14 Belmont (14-3, 36)…Jay Wright’s Villanova knows

all about March Madness after having reached the Final Four in 2009, but we

suspect the Wildcats will be ultra-focused come Dance time after their

unceremonious dumping in the sub-regionals a year ago by Saint Mary’s. We

caution any higher seed about the dangers of facing Rick Byrd’s Nashville-based

Belmont Bruins, who are the heavy favorite in the Atlantic Sun and already put

scares into Tennessee (twice, including a 66-65 loss) and crosstown Vanderbilt.

6 Saint Mary’s (14-2, 15) vs. 11 Wichita State (14-3, 48)…Now that we just

made reference to it, wouldn’t it be interesting if Saint Mary’s ran into a revengeminded

Villanova in a second-round game, just like a year ago? The Gaels still

have their Aussie contingent, but have a slightly different look minus graduated C

Omar Samhan, with U of San Diego transfer swingman Rob Jones providing a

different sort of dimension. We think the Valley could be a multi-bid league this

season, and Wichita appears on course with a veteran lineup featuring lots of size

as well as a savvy backcourt led by G Toure’ Murry. HC Gregg Marshall is also well

familiar with March as well after several years in the Dance with Winthrop.

WEST REGIONAL (Anaheim)

at Washington, D.C…

1 Syracuse (17-0, 8) vs. 16 Vermont (11-4, 100)…Jim Boeheim’s still-unbeaten

Syracuse would have a shot at a top seed were the tourney drawn up today,

although we’ll see if the Orange or any Big East rep can survive the conference

wars in good enough shape to be considered for a regional top seed in mid-March.

No more Taylor Coppenrath at Vermont, but the Catamounts are becoming

something of a Big Dance regular out of the America East, whose champ could

easily fall into one of the play-in games as well.

8 Missouri State (13-3, 38) vs. 9 Georgia (12-3, 51)…As we said earlier, we

think the Valley can be a multi-bid league once again this season with Missouri

State and Wichita the two likeliest at-large candidates. The Bears continue to

bounce along with swingman Kyle Weems emerging as a force in the Valley.

Georgia’s last trip to the Dance its the memorable 2008 upset run through the

tornado-delayed SEC Tourney in Atlanta (we were there!) for HC Dennis Felton.

We don’t think this year’s bunch of improved Dawgs under Mark Fox will need to

resort to such dramatics to earn a bid.

At Tucson…

4 Washington (12-3, 16) vs. 13 Utah State (14-2, 37)…As mentioned in

reference to Arizona, we’re not sure how good any Pac-10 entry is, including

Washington, which hardly looked fearsome when running into Michigan State and

Kentucky in Maui, or Texas A&M in December. Still, Lorenzo Romar’s go-go

Huskies are the team to beat in the Pac. The WAC looks a likely one-bid league

this season, and we doubt Stew Morrill’s Utah State can afford to lose in the

conference title game (as the Ags did a year ago vs. New Mexico State) and earn

another at-large bid to the Dance.

5 Wisconsin (12-4, 17) vs. 12 Oklahoma State (13-3, 39)/Virginia Tech (10-

4/47)…Wisconsin figures to be somewhere in the March mix once more, although

the Badgers might end up ruing that bitter Tuesday night loss at Michigan State

when blowing that late 9-point lead. In March it could be the difference between a

protected seed playing sub-regionals closer to home (Chicago would be perfect) or

being sent elsewhere as a 5 or 6 seed. Ok State figures to ride the bubble all of the

way into March, although the Cowboys have a few non-league wins that are

beginning to look pretty good (Missouri State and emerging Alabama, in

particular). Pencil the Pokes into one of the 12 vs. 12 play-in games, perhaps vs.

Seth Greenberg’s Virginia Tech, which has been cruelly denied Big Dance berths

on multiple occasions lately. Maybe Seth should try wearing a wig.

 

At Tucson…

2 San Diego State (17-0, 6) vs. 15 Montana (9-5, 117)…Steve Fisher’s San

Diego State has stayed unbeaten into mid-January and has become the best

program in the West. Who would have imagined that a few years ago? But this

looks to be the Aztecs’ big chance, with so many seniors in the fold and soph F

Kawhi Leonard likely to enter the NBA Draft after this season. Enjoy this run while

you can, SDSU fans. The Big Sky race seems to be a jumble, as usual; right now, a

measured vote for Montana, which made the Dance last season, to emerge again.

7 Marquette (12-5, 32) vs. 10 Minnesota (12-4, 42)…We would keep a very

close watch on Marquette, which unlike Georgetown seems to be gaining

momentum as Big East play kicks into gear. Don’t be surprised if we move the

Golden Eagles up a couple of slots by our next Bracketology report. We’re not

quite as sure about Minnesota, which has already undergone a tumultuous season

with DG Devoe Joseph’s in-and-out status and eventual transfer, an injury to G Al

Nolen (since returned), and more off-court controversies involving F Trevor

Mbakwe, who remains eligible for the moment. It hasn’t been an easy ride for HC

Tubby Smith, but the Gophers look good enough to endure into March.

At Tulsa….

3 Texas (13-3, 11) vs. 14 Oakland (11-8, 59)…Texas has had a mean and nasty

look the past few weeks as the pieces have come together for HC Rick Barnes.

The Horns loom as a legit challenger to Kansas in the Big XII and could easily climb

another seed by the time of our next update. If Summit rep Oakland make it back

to the Dance as it did a year ago (where its first round foe was Pitt), opponents will

be on alert, thanks to the Grizzlies’ mid-December win at Tennessee.

6 North Carolina (11-4, 25) vs. 11 Cleveland State (13-3, 39)…Roy Williams’

Tar Heels have yet to really hit their stride, although some ACC observers believe

UNC could be pretty hot to handle come March. Navigating through a combative

ACC (where all besides Wake Forest look to have postseason hopes) could be

tricky, however. Cleveland State has flattened out a bit after becoming the nation’s

first team to 12 wins. We still like Gary Waters’ Vikings and their 3-G lineup

featuring high-scoring Norris Cole, but CSU cannot afford too many slips in the

Horizon if it wants to realistically keep its at-large hopes buoyant.

Last four in: Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, Maryland, St. John’s.

Last four out: Tennessee, Miami-Florida, Dayton, Boston College.

Next four out: Southern Cal, Northwestern, Memphis, New Mexico.

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