Stanley Cup Finals – Vancouver: the heavy favorite by The Sports Network

This season, another original six squad has a chance to have its name engraved on Lord Stanley’s Cup as the Boston Bruins take on the Vancouver Canucks. The Bruins have lost five finals since Bobby Orr and Phil Esposito last brought them the Cup in 1972. This time around, new heroes who have yet to raise the cup, including Tim Thomas and Zdeno Chara, have to get past the heavily favored Vancouver Canucks.

Vancouver, led by Roberto Luongo and the Sedin twins (Daniel and Henrik), have failed to reach the Finals since a disheartening 1994 loss to the Rangers. The Canucks also were stopped in 1982 by the New York Islanders.

They hope the third time is the charm, particularly since they ended the regular season with the best record in the NHL. Maybe that’s the reason why folks who like Vancouver must wager $235 to win $100, while those siding with Boston could pocket a cool $195 for every $100 bet.

The Canucks were the only NHL team with at least 50 wins this season – 54 to be exact. They earned 117 points, 10 more than Washington, which finished second. But the accomplishments didn’t end there. Vancouver led the league in goals scored with 262 and goals allowed at 185.

Still, despite all that success, the Canucks almost failed to reach the second round of the playoffs. Leading Chicago three games to none, they dropped three straight, which forced a seventh game with the reigning Stanley Cup champs.

The Canucks enjoyed a 1-0 lead in Game 7, but almost choked it away after allowing a shorthanded goal with less than two minutes to play, forcing overtime. Alexandre Burrows sent Vancouver into round two with the series- winning goal, and from there the Canucks knocked off Nashville in six games and then San Jose in five.

Ironically, not only was Boston taken to seven games in its first-round series against Montreal, but the Bruins also needed overtime to make it to round two. Nathan Horton, who was acquired from Florida before the season began, scored the game-winner, which then allowed them to sweep Philadelphia and finish off Tampa Bay in seven games. Horton was the hero once again against the Lightning as he scored the only goal in a 1-0 win in the series finale.

Even though Vancouver led the league in goals allowed, Boston was right there in third place, one behind Nashville for second. In fact, goalie Tim Thomas finished first in goals-against average at 2.00 and save percentage at .938. The Bruins not only played great defense, but they also put the puck in the net 246 times – third best in the East – and 40 more times than they did in the 2009-10 season.

PLAYOFF NUMBERS

Of the four teams that went to the conference finals, the Bruins were No. 1 in save percentage at .926. They also scored 58 goals in 18 playoff games for an average of 3.1 goals per game.

On the other hand, the Canucks tallied just 50 goals in the same number of games for an average of 2.6 per contest. They also allowed one more goal than Boston.

If there is one key factor in the Stanley Cup Finals that favors Vancouver, it comes on special teams. The Canucks have been deadly with the man advantage, posting goals at a 28-percent clip after leading the league in that category during the regular season. On the other hand, Boston has been flat-out abysmal on the power play, scoring just five goals on 61 chances. That equates to an 8.2 percentage. Looking at that total compared to the final percentages of Stanley Cup winners since the lockout (22.5, 18.9, 20.6, 15.2, and 24.0) gives one the impression that Boston will have to improve dramatically to be crowned kings of the NHL.

Vancouver will try its best to make this a series determined by special teams. If the Canucks can coax the Bruins into taking bad penalties, they’ll have a great chance of winning.

The Bruins’ opponents have already been able to goad them into 63 penalties in just 18 postseason games. Furthermore, Boston has allowed 13 goals for a 79.4 penalty kill percentage. That number would have ranked 25th of the 30 teams during the regular season.

On the other side, even though Vancouver has allowed opposing teams to hit on 19.4 percent of their power play opportunities, the way Boston is skating with the man advantage, it might not matter if the Canucks take 10 penalties a game. Still, if this series is played mostly at even strength, the Bruins have a huge advantage. They have outscored Vancouver, 53-33, in the postseason five-on-five.

Since 1999, nine of the 11 Stanley Cup Finals have gone at least six games, with five of the nine reaching the limit. Tim Thomas and Roberto Luongo will almost guarantee a long series, so it should come down to how well Chara and the Bruins’ defense handles the Sedins, along with how Vancouver’s backline takes care of Boston’s balanced scoring.

With Boston such a high underdog, it’s best to take the Bruins to win the series at plus 2-1 odds. In addition, stick with Boston at 13-2 odds to win in six games, along with the 15-2 odds to take it in seven. Finally, go with Thomas as the Conn Smythe Trophy winner at odds of 4-1, with a small wager on Chara at 25-1.

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