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Miami Dolphins v. New England Patriots Week 17 Betting Preview by Jimmy Boyd
It will certainly be interesting to see what approach New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick takes in Sunday’s meaningless game against the Miami Dolphins.
Last year, with the AFC East title clinched and no first-round bye to be earned, Belichick decided to play many of his starters in a 34-27 loss against the Houston Texans. That loss didn’t matter so much, but the loss of wide receiver Wes Welker – last season’s receptions leader – sure did. Without Welker in the slot to move the chains, New England suffered an embarrassing 33-14 loss to Baltimore in its wild-card game.
Perhaps Belichick will decide to sit Welker, among others, this time around.
NFL odds makers have listed the Patriots as a 4-point favorite with the total set at 44.
The Patriots took care of Buffalo 34-3 last Sunday to clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed, which gives them home-field throughout the playoffs. That was their seventh straight victory, one that affords them the luxury of resting starters in Week 17.
Belichick, however, is yet to tip his hand in terms of what his decision will be.
“There’s a lot of things that would go into that conversation, a lot of things we’ll take into consideration,” Belichick said. “There’s some players individually whose situations are a little different than other guys. … We’ll do what’s best for the football team, both individually and collectively.”
Quarterback Tom Brady has come out and said he wants to play. In what is sure to be another MVP season, Brady has thrown for 3,701 yards with 34 touchdown strikes and four interceptions. He has thrown 24 touchdown passes with no picks in his last 10 games.
Taking care of the football has been a major key to New England’s success. The Patriots have only committed nine turnovers all season and none during their seven-game win streak. This has led to a league-best plus-27 turnover margin.
With a win Sunday, the Patriots will finish the regular season with an undefeated home record for the second straight season and a jaw-dropping fifth time since 2003. A win would also give the Pats a fourth season with at least 14 wins under Belichick.
The Dolphins have only defeated the Patriots in Foxborough once in eight tries when Brady has started. Keep in mind that he only played one quarter in the lone loss.
The Patriots are 12-3 against the spread in their last 15 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 10.0 points.
Miami figures to have a chance Sunday given its 6-1 road record, which ties them with Chicago and Pittsburgh for the best mark in the NFL. That is little consolation, however, considering the Dolphins’ franchise-worst 1-7 home mark kept them out of playoff contention.
The Dolphins outgained the Patriots 400-265 in the season’s first meeting but lost 41-14 due to four costly turnovers and a couple special teams blunders.
It is worth noting that the Dolphins are a perfect 6-0 against the spread in road games when revenging a loss to an opponent under coach Tony Sparano, winning these games outright by an average score of 22.0 to 17.0.
Jimmy Boyd has strung together five straight winning weeks in the NFL and he’s not done yet. Make sure you join him in the winner’s circle in Week 17!
