It may be HOT and many folks are still on vacation, but football is just around the corner, the best time of the sports betting calendar. There have been a lot of changes in college football with several teams shifting conferences. Here are some things to keep in mind with the Big 10 for 2011.
Nebraska: Welcome to the Big 10! Bo Pelini had a dominant defense last fall, 17.4 ppg (9th in the nation) during a 10-4 SU, 6-7 ATS campaign. The offense was improved, averaging 30.9 points, 247.6 yards rushing and 150.6 passing and for 2011, they return sophomore QB Taylor Martinez (10 TDs, 7 INTs), who ran for 965 yards. New offensive coordinator Tim Beck has tweaked the terminology and trimmed down the playbook. He wants his wide receivers to have more flexibility in their routes so they and the QBs can react to various defensive coverages. The schedule is very favorable, with a rematch with Washington (at home, September 17), plus they get Ohio State at home. Nebraska is 10-5 SU/ATS on the road under Pelini.
Michigan State: Only five starters are back on offense, but many of the key players are part of the returning mix, led by behind senior QB Kirk Cousins (20 TDs, 10 INTs, 2,825 yards), senior WR B.J. Cunningham and junior RB Edwin Baker (1,201 yds, 5.8 ypc). The main concern is the offensive line. The defense allowed 22.3 ppg (39th in the country), and the defensive front should be among the Big Ten’s best with Jerel Worthy, plus Kevin Pickelman and Blake Treadwell. The schedule is not easy, with a September 17 game at Notre Dame and road games at Iowa and Nebraska. Michigan State is 14-26 ATS its last 40 home games.
Ohio State: The Buckeyes were the early favorite to win the Big 10 following the bowls, but what a terrible offseason. The offense averaged 38.8 points, 220 yards rushing, 228.2 yards passing and QB Terrelle Pryor was 31-4 as a starter. However, the Buckeyes will be without four players for selling Big 10 merchandise, including four offensive starters, for the first five games this season, plus QB Pryor left to turn pro. The four players suspended are RB Dan Herron, WR DeVier Posey, left tackle Mike Adams and backup defensive end Solomon Thomas.
They will miss the first two games against MAC schools, then at Miami, and home against Colorado and Michigan State. They will be able to return October 8 in a showdown with Big 10 newcomer Nebraska (on the road). Jim Tressell, too, is out, so Luke Fickell was promoted to Assistant Head Coach and will assume the head coaching duties. Ohio State played great defense (14.3 ppg allowed, No. 5 in the country) and will be led up front by junior DT John Simon, though the defense loses 7 starters. Ohio State is 61-5 SU, 40-21-1 ATS their last 66 home games, but the Buckeyes went from favorites to huge question marks.
Michigan: The Wolverines (7-6 SU/3-9 ATS) made a bowl last season, but don’t be fooled. It was a disappointing, even embarrassing season as the Wolverines played no defense while losing 6 of their final 8 games. But they have a new style with head coach Brady Hoke and offensive coordinator Al Borges, plus ten starters return on offense. He is a proponent of a wide-open pro-style/West Coast offense.
The offense was No. 13 in the nation with 250 yards rushing per game and 35.2 points and returns junior QB Denard Robinson (18 TDs, 12 INTs, 2,570 yards). Defensively, Michigan is moving to a four-man front from the 3-3-5 under defensive coordinator Greg Mattison, who comes over from the Baltimore Ravens. Nine starters are back on ‘D’, led by senior NT Mike Martin. Michigan is also 12-12 SU/10-14 ATS their last 24 road games.
Wisconsin: The Badgers (11-2 SU/7-5 ATS in 2010) is off a terrific season, but lose key players OT Gabe Carimi and DE J.J. Watt to the NFL, plus fifth-year senior QB QB Scott Tolzien. This loaded offense averaged 41.5 points, 245.7 yards rushing and 199.5 passing, but might not be as potent. QB Curt Phillips, coming off a knee injury, was supposed to be the starter but had a setback in his recovery from a second ACL tear in his right knee and will miss the upcoming 2011 season.
However, Jon Budmayr and 6-foot-4 sophomore quarterback Joel Stave are battling for the top job, plus they catch a break with the addition of former NC State star QB Russell Wilson, who is eligible to play for the Badgers after transferring. The ground game is loaded in the backfield with sophomore RB James White (1,052 yards, 670 yards per carry) and junior Montee Ball (996 yards, 6.1 ypc). The Badgers have a new defensive coordinator with Dan Doeren taking over the Northern Illinois head coaching job. They are on a 12-5 run over the total and 44-5 SU, 25-18 ATS the last seven years at home.
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